CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I wouldn't be shocked if the gfs went a hair nw, but I think things may be stabilizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ok, top 10. It's probably a fairly easy experiment that you could do in less than a half hour. Just list them greatest to least and then compare them by some standards of pressure, wind, snow ...etc. I tell you what - if it gets inside the top 10 I'll throw you bone and call it historic, but we could qualify it on a scale of approaching historic to outrightly so - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Perhaps, but certainly not pervasively historic, no... In fact, where I was, in Acton Massachusetts for that event (about 25 miles W of BOS), we had 7" total from that. A small area of the region over SE sections wound up under a frontogenic band that went nuts and so for them yes. You received waaaay more than 7" from the Blizzard of 2005 John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Def looking to be an "away from the coast" type storm. You'll need to be 15 miles or more inland if you're hoping to get the truly historic amts. Signs this wants to linger into Tuesday morning as well..esp on the Euro last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not a lock or anything, but it sure does beat it being 6 days out. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 and to think you guys almost wrote this off.lol. Patience is a virtue. I'm hoping to get a bit of a front end dump. It'll go over to rain here but it's a start. Merry Christmas from north of the border. Hope everyone has a happy and safe holidays. Enjoy your Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 First weenie BOX map out. Matched the 4-8 I put in for MBY perfectly. But--after the NAM, I'll need to consider a bit of an adjustment We'll see the rest of the suite, first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That tears it. I'm going to Christmas dinner with nothing but a Santa Hat on and the NAM QPF print out over the weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not a lock or anything, but it sure does beat it being 6 days out. Amazing. Yes, We are like 36 hrs out.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 First weenie BOX map out. can someone post the link to these maps? thanks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I like what Scott said about banding out this way. Wonder how these ratios will play out. Like Messenger said, the early frames were a little disconcerting. I certianly liked how it finished! Time to see if we can see some similar to scenarios unfold with the rest of the suite. At the risk of being a TOTAL WEENIE--can anyone text me the EC results? (207-798-0799)? I'll be here the for the GFS, but then I'lll be gone. TIA to anyone who will! THE eastslope usually gets crushed with this kind of in flow. Check out. The top analogs and what they left here in their wake.THUMPING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 can someone post the link to these maps? thanks.. It's on BOX NWs website..Just go there. Also those maps will have to be adjusted up quite substantially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I haven't seen a 10"+ storm since 12/13/07, thats 1107 days ago Saddest part is I had an even longer streak of 1369 days from 4/1/97 to 12/29/00 :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's on BOX NWs website..Just go there. Also those maps will have to be adjusted up quite substantially Yup, this far out they need to play it conservative. Always a good sign when they are already saying 7" imby with plenty of time to up those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ok, I will make my first call after the 12Z models are done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Que? okay, fine, the biggest event ever on the planet ....make that the solar system's 4.6 billion years of existence. Sorry, the area has seen 975mb lows pass by on many occasions and they were not historic... that aside, 40kt sustain in BL at BOS on the FRH grid is only moderately impressive, so too is 2.00" melted - 20" is great but no where near the greatest(s). Just trying to put some objectivity into lust. Totally agree with Tip. Good old fashioned Nor'Easter but let's not get carried away by calling it historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 First weenie BOX map out. Poor ACK .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yup, this far out they need to play it conservative. Always a good sign when they are already saying 7" imby with plenty of time to up those totals. Yea.. not to be dense or anything, but Im on the site, and find lots of images; just not that one... link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 THE eastslope usually gets crushed with this kind of in flow. Check out. The top analogs and what they left here in their wake.THUMPING. Where can I see that? Will you be getting the EC rundown on here? If so, can you text me anything on track/qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ok, I will make my first call after the 12Z models are done. IMO very wise move. Nice little vortmax coming through PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Def looking to be an "away from the coast" type storm. You'll need to be 15 miles or more inland if you're hoping to get the truly historic amts. Signs this wants to linger into Tuesday morning as well..esp on the Euro last night That's going to take a lot. The NAM is all done by noon on Monday. The Euro is over by mid afternoon Monday here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yea, the storm's a complete bust because there is no high wind warning... lol Actually, in all seriousness I see no issue with going to a blizzard watch for all areas (save the Cape where mixing issues would change the complexion of the event), SE of about ASH -HFD (with a small exceptional hole punched out of the painting that will exclude the general Tollan CT area from any impact at all (80F and sunny)). In that region 15-20+" of snow and winds gusting to 40mph inland and near 60 at times inside of I-95 to the coast will slam dunk the 3-hour's of 1/4 mile vis requirement. That is a blend of the 00z Euro and the NAM's last 3 cycles. Special acknowledgement should go to the NAM for being the first model inside of 72 hours to show any consistency, and locking this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Def looking to be an "away from the coast" type storm. You'll need to be 15 miles or more inland if you're hoping to get the truly historic amts. Signs this wants to linger into Tuesday morning as well..esp on the Euro last night Depends where. Even on the GFS, I think I'm ok. Maybe flirt with dryslot, but not bad at all. Dryslot may be just se, as this low bombs and mid level lows reform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hopefully this band verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 can someone post the link to these maps? thanks.. 8.1 for the lower valley and 6.8 for MRG. Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What's the take on the surface winds? Maybe a breakdown for the coast, I-495, and then the inland areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM has hours of sustained 30mph winds even back to BDL. That's VERY impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Perhaps, but certainly not pervasively historic, no... In fact, where I was, in Acton Massachusetts for that event (about 25 miles W of BOS), we had 7" total from that. A small area of the region over SE sections wound up under a frontogenic band that went nuts and so for them yes. John, are you sure about the 7" total from 2005? I have the PNS right here and Acton MA is in Middlesex County and they got 20 to 30+ with the highest total being 36" in Melrose.. I have a friend who lives in Marlborough MA and he told me got around 28 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What's the take on the surface winds? Maybe a breakdown for the coast, I-495, and then the inland areas? Yeah, I'd forgo any wind if it meant higher ratios in a heartbeat. But I agree...would love to know how the winds are looking up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just saw the NAM! looks great...moved a little NW of the 06z.. Moisture is going to be flung off the atlantic with this one. Now its all about the banding to get high totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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