dendrite Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z NAM goes bonkers here with 1.25-1.50" QPF...1.75" for SFM. I like where I sit for some mean cranking deform snow with nice ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That area of mesoscale precip could be a little too far se, but here is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm concerned about the progressive nature of the system. The "truly" historic events related to residence in the area where the integrated impact was high for sticking around so long. I don't see this stalling. It will be fierce out of door, but there are thousands of events that were fierce in that way but they didn't stick around long enough to tip any measuring up against kings in the database. I suppose if even one location breaks "some kind of" at record, you can argue for a "historic" event, but in all fairness - eh. As modeled I agree. I was scared at the early portion here--happy to see the recovery (needless to say). I'm scared with the later portion too, eventually it locks in but that's a big change down the coast because it pulled together later. Is continuity coming into play from earlier models and earlier model problems? Probably not. The 500 pattern could argue for further nw precip shield...esp down through Mid Atlantic. Maybe but it doesn't pull it together in time. It's one model, trend on the GFS and others will be important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yah not sure I see the 20"+ totals either. Looks much more like a 10-20" system. QPF isn't exactly off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Best run yet for this area. Just sick. Sick, I tell ya! Loving it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WOWZER's guys!!!!!!!!! Congratulations! Thanks, You as well........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Sorry--I thought it was slower/east. I should just let you folks speak at these times. Carry on!!!! You are so eager to find the fly in the ointment it clouds your perception.lol Sit back and enjoy the Good olS fashioned N'oreaster that's coming to thump you. 12+ easy Mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NAM def shows signs of big banding pushing into NH,ME and wrn mass. I need 30 more miles in western Maine...want to see the 1" line get back there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 one of the more perplexing posts. Que? okay, fine, the biggest event ever on the planet ....make that the solar system's 4.6 billion years of existence. Sorry, the area has seen 975mb lows pass by on many occasions and they were not historic... that aside, 40kt sustain in BL at BOS on the FRH grid is only moderately impressive, so too is 2.00" melted - 20" is great but no where near the greatest(s). Just trying to put some objectivity into lust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 someone will easily get 2 feet if it stays modeled like this. easy. im very good with top end numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Sorry--I thought it was slower/east. I should just let you folks speak at these times. Carry on!!!! You are so eager to find the fly in the ointment it clouds your perception.lol Sit back and enjoy the Good olS fashioned N'oreaster that's coming to thump you. 12+ easy Mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You and i are sitting pretty good!! Incredible run of the NAM for Maine, a huge blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This will rage for 12 hours...conservatively 1"/hr...there is 12". Because of the progressive nature of the system, I believe the cap would be 18-20". Get this thing to stall and then 24"+ is within reach, but unlikely. This will be a good old fashioned Nor'easter. LOL. Someone is going to see 24" out of this. People will be seeing 3" per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z NAM goes bonkers here with 1.25-1.50" QPF...1.75" for SFM. I like where I sit for some mean cranking deform snow with nice ratios. This really looks good brian, Your snowless streak ends............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Incredible run of the NAM for Maine, a huge blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Que? okay, fine, the biggest event ever on the planet ....make that the solar system's 4.6 billion years of existence. Sorry, the area has seen 975mb lows pass by on many occasions and they were not historic... that aside, 40kt sustain in BL at BOS on the FRH grid is only moderately impressive, so too is 2.00" melted - 20" is great but no where near the greatest(s). Just trying to put some objectivity into lust. How can you be Debbie downing the bolded? It may not top '78, '93, or '96, but as modeled it will rank up there in your SNE weenie hearts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Getting ready in Kingston, fully anticipate losing power if this verifies, with the wind and what's bound to be heavy wet snow at times its inevitable. I was home alone for that Blizzard of 05, so trying to describe it to my parents should HOPEFULLY be easier come Tuesday morning. This thing has been beautiful watching it go from fantasy land way out, to now 48 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Que? okay, fine, the biggest event ever on the planet ....make that the solar system's 4.6 billion years of existence. Sorry, the area has seen 975mb lows pass by on many occasions and they were not historic... that aside, 40kt sustain in BL at BOS on the FRH grid is only moderately impressive, so too is 2.00" melted - 20" is great but no where near the greatest(s). Just trying to put some objectivity into lust. Ok, top 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Que? okay, fine, the biggest event ever on the planet ....make that the solar system's 4.6 billion years of existence. Sorry, the area has seen 975mb lows pass by on many occasions and they were not historic... that aside, 40kt sustain in BL at BOS on the FRH grid is only moderately impressive, so too is 2.00" melted - 20" is great but no where near the greatest(s). Just trying to put some objectivity into lust. no its cool, i tihnk your first post was just a bit of a shocker given the rampant lust! you know a lot more about your region, always great to hear your insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Jan 2005 was a pretty progressive system and I think we'd agree it was historic, no? Perhaps, but certainly not pervasively historic, no... In fact, where I was, in Acton Massachusetts for that event (about 25 miles W of BOS), we had 7" total from that. A small area of the region over SE sections wound up under a frontogenic band that went nuts and so for them yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This really looks good brian, Your snowless streak ends............. You folks in ME and NH would do great. Good track of H7 low swinging a band wide north and nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You are so eager to find the fly in the ointment it clouds your perception.lol Sit back and enjoy the Good olS fashioned N'oreaster that's coming to thump you. 12+ easy Mike. I like what Scott said about banding out this way. Wonder how these ratios will play out. Like Messenger said, the early frames were a little disconcerting. I certianly liked how it finished! Time to see if we can see some similar to scenarios unfold with the rest of the suite. At the risk of being a TOTAL WEENIE--can anyone text me the EC results? (207-798-0799)? I'll be here the for the GFS, but then I'lll be gone. TIA to anyone who will! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You folks in ME and NH would do great. Good track of H7 low swinging a band wide north and nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just by looking at 700mb VV's and omega there is going to be some insane lift involved with this storm, while it may look rather progressive I certainly wouldn't discount a much slower solution than what the NAM is showing, especially if this does start closing off around LI or just south. Someone is going to see 2-3''/HR rates within some of the bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slknight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z NAM goes bonkers here with 1.25-1.50" QPF...1.75" for SFM. I live 12 miles from SFM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You folks in ME and NH would do great. Good track of H7 low swinging a band wide north and nw. It looks like the Whole NE corridor is going to cash in, Per the Nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 First weenie BOX map out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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