weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah not sure what he thinks could have been done better. They can only issue watches within 48 hours of the event. Issuing overnight means a lead time of what 36-40 hours? I'd say that's pretty good lead time in a forecast as difficult as this one. I think the fact that we've been tracking this storm for over a week has led to time distortion for some. We're still more than a day away from the start of this thing and I'd say it's not a done deal or slam dunk by any means. Agreed. There is some excellent lead time on this right now and people should have been aware over this potential. I know at least in CT local news outlets have been highlighting that we do have potential for a big hit and to stay tuned so the word was definitely out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Great run for S NH it seems. 42-48 is juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If you don't consider 18-30 inches historic in some places sure I don't think that'll be widespread enough to be historic. If all of CT, MA, RI, and parts of central New England all clock in with 18+ yeah it'll be historic. I think the storm will be moving too fast to dump that kind of snow over a wide area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This may go over ACK. The bombing nature and longitude will def help with ageo flow. I am liking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LOL, you do much better than 06z on this run!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 850 low at 42 is just gorgeous! SEMA is getting annihilated, while the rest get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This run is fine. Little disconcerting on the trend early though but it regroups. I hope we're not seeing some effects still from yest. Through 36 it obliterates a lot of the 6z QPF down the coast. Very good continuity in terms of placement at 5h between it's earlier run though by 42-48. Hate to see it blow up QPF forecasts like that to our sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z NAM is looking BEAUTIFUL...might have to watch for potential dry slot in far eastern areas but it may not be that big of a deal. See this is EXACTLY why it's not good to look at just one or two panels and try to "guess" how good it will look down the road...let the run play out before making these types of statements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Height crash from 537 DM to less than 516 in 12 hrs. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LOL, you do much better than 06z on this run!. I know, We had mentioned slight NW earlier, Perfect track for here........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Let's not have this go anymore NW. OK, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 850 low at 42 is just gorgeous! SEMA is getting annihilated, while the rest get smoked. Agreed. Someone in SEMA snd LI will get it big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Really? Why the ramp-down from what everyone else is saying? I'm concerned about the progressive nature of the system. The "truly" historic events related to residence in the area where the integrated impact was high for sticking around so long. I don't see this stalling. It will be fierce out of door, but there are thousands of events that were fierce in that way but they didn't stick around long enough to tip any measuring up against kings in the database. I suppose if even one location breaks "some kind of" at record, you can argue for a "historic" event, but in all fairness - eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Nothing historic in nature, but a good old fashion Nor' Easter that will come with the usual concerns for impact one of the more perplexing posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This run is fine. Little disconcerting on the trend early though but it regroups. I hope we're not seeing some effects still from yest. Through 36 it obliterates a lot of the 6z QPF down the coast. Very good continuity in terms of placement at 5h between it's earlier run though by 42-48. Hate to see it blow up QPF forecasts like that to our sw. I was scared at the early portion here--happy to see the recovery (needless to say). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 500 pattern could argue for further nw precip shield...esp down through Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 damn SAM! i dont know what im seeing LOL, but is that what you were talking about..... that the energy in quebec getting involved! am i reading that right? what a monster storm for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just looking at sfc wind progs on UCAR looks like there could be some serious wind issues out towards the Cape...looking like 30-40 knots with even some shades of 40-50 knots mixed in. What could make this storm a bit more in the way of historic is the fact that we could be dealing with some serious winds and that coupled with heavy accumulating snow could lead to lots of tree damage and power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Best run yet for this area. Just sick. Sick, I tell ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Height crash from 537 DM to less than 516 in 12 hrs. Jeez. Some dyn. tropopause maps I saw last night were around 700mb...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Best run yet for this area. Just sick. Sick, I tell ya! You and i are sitting pretty good!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NAM def shows signs of big banding pushing into NH,ME and wrn mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This will rage for 12 hours...conservatively 1"/hr...there is 12". Because of the progressive nature of the system, I believe the cap would be 18-20". Get this thing to stall and then 24"+ is within reach, but unlikely. This will be a good old fashioned Nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm concerned about the progressive nature of the system. The "truly" historic events related to residence in the area where the integrated impact was high for sticking around so long. I don't see this stalling. It will be fierce out of door, but there are thousands of events that were fierce in that way but they didn't stick around long enough to tip any measuring up against kings in the database. I suppose if even one location breaks "some kind of" at record, you can argue for a "historic" event, but in all fairness - eh. Jan 2005 was a pretty progressive system and I think we'd agree it was historic, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 damn SAM! i dont know what im seeing LOL, but is that what you were talking about..... that the energy in quebec getting involved! am i reading that right? what a monster storm for you guys. Time for the Triple Lindy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Cannot wait to see the QPF map for this NAM run. Obscene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NAM def shows signs of big banding pushing into NH,ME and wrn mass. As we thought.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM has incredible winds just on the west side of this low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You and i are sitting pretty good!! WOWZER's guys!!!!!!!!! Congratulations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Cannot wait to see the QPF map for this NAM run. Obscene. 1.50"-1.75" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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