Would you bet against +PNA February?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

As far as long range forecasting goes, this is probably the most data I have seen supporting a favored atmospheric state 1+ month out. The Euro weeklies, ECMWF seasonal forecasting model, and other seasonal models all have a big +PNA (N. Pacific 500mb low) developing and sustaining for the month of February. 

For the last few decades, ENSO has correlated to the Global pattern, of all months of the year, the most in February. In La Nina's, we have seen a lot of -PNA's, and El Ninos, +PNA's during this month. The El Nino right now is in a "Strong" state, with Nino 3.4 sitting at +2.0c: It is actually the 7th total greatest ENSO event (all el nino's and la nina's) since 1948. 

My issue with +PNA February is we have seen a global state take over in the last 6 years. For a 6 year period, there is no other 500mb anomaly stronger than the -PNA we have seen from 2018-2023:

The 2nd place 6-year running anomaly total only hits 0.80 correlation to ^this max. 

Now we have had more La Nina's over that 6-year period, but even our Neutral-El Nino Winter's have had a mean -PNA in recent February's:

Which would you predict for February, a continuation of the recent ongoing years anomaly spike in the N. Pacific Ocean, or an El Nino driven +PNA (breaking the trend completely)? 

The CPC is going with a break, on a soft +PNA signal:

https://ibb.co/dL4P5nW

And long range 12z GEFS also has us going +PNA right now around Feb 1st. 

I think the patterns we have seen in December and January so far do not point to a big +PNA developing like seasonal models say, unless the El Nino all of a sudden wakes up, but it may be hard to sustain this -PNA pattern a 7th consecutive year. Should be interesting to see what happens. Any thoughts/analysis? I think if we don't do a -PNA in February, we'll do it in March. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here's what they are showing for February.. and have been showing this for a while. since at least September. 

Other global models are showing the same thing in the PNA region

[Stormchaserchuck1]

+PNA models have is extreme. I would bet against it. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Strongest LR +PNA signal I have seen on a 384hr GFS ensemble mean.. it looks like the weeklies/seasonals will be hitting it.

https://ibb.co/xDkm28h

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I nailed it.. there was more -PNA in February than +PNA

The big Aleutian low that models were showing ended up in the Bering Strait, which isn't really the same thing. 

Persistence won.