osfan24 Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 11 minutes ago, Ji said: How creepy and accurate was this lol Weird. February might not work out that way though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 Latest LWX AFD Quote Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 915 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure sliding to our south will bring widespread light to moderate snow to the region. The low pressure system will slide off the Delmarva coast Tuesday morning with arctic high pressure building in. Dry and cold conditions are expected midweek before another wave of low pressure and front approach Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Frontogenetical band has been lifting northward into the area this evening ahead of a wave of low pressure. Moderate to briefly heavy rates are occurring within this band and will lead to deteriorating travel conditions. So far, snow measurements and model data are largely on track with the official forecast. The northwestern portion of the CWA has been underperforming as drier air has held firm, but this band will still affect most of those areas before pivoting away. On the other hand, if the band becomes stationary or has a pivot point, some places could reach warning criteria of around 5-6 inches. It still appears most probable this would occur across north central Maryland, but confidence is still not high enough to upgrade due to the mesoscale nature of any such feature...with consensus being most areas receive an additional 2-4 inches before the snow winds down in the morning (except southern Maryland where rates have already decreased). Some freezing rain may mix in on the tail end of the system across central VA and southern MD with warmer air trying to work in as it departs Tuesday...although freezing drizzle could also be an outcome due to some drying aloft. Some guidance has the northwest extent of the ice into the Baltimore/Washington metro, but even if it were to occur, amounts would be very light with minimal additional impact. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the aforementioned threats above. Mountain locations will see a touch more snow with accumulations ranging between 4 to 8 inches along and west of the Allegheny Front. This is due to the added lift from the terrain plus upslope component that looks to keep snow going through early Tuesday afternoon, and Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for this area. Lows will not drop too far from current readings overnight in the mid to upper 20s areawide outside the mountains. Low pressure will continue to lift north and east of the Delmarva coast Tuesday morning. Some light snow may linger over northern MD through mid-morning with upslope snow showers set to continue in northwest flow over the mountains through Tuesday afternoon. Highs Tuesday will range between the teens over the mountains to mid to upper 30s south/east of I-95. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 Right around 3” in Great Falls. Coming down at a pretty good rate. Georgetown Pike caved long ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 13 minutes ago, wxmvpete said: Really starting to see returns filling in at higher radar tilts in western VA. What originally featured drier returns around 4,800ft out near the I-66/I-81 merger (around 850mb) is showing brighter returns. For those who have patiently waited in Northern MD, those heavier rates will be realized soon. Was noticing this as well. The evolution is going as expected from what has been depicted by most guidance. Should see some 5-7” totals out of this one at this rate. Combo of 85H frontogen coupled with the mid-level ascent pattern should yield periods of 0.75-1.5”/hr rates for a time overnight into the early morning hrs. 7 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Radar filling in nicely in this corridor C'ville to Fred to WSH is the pipeline I need 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 Pushing an inch here. Steadier snow finally starting to accumulate. 24f perfect evening with a fire crackling... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Weird. February might not work out that way though. It will. Winter will take a break next week and then come running back onto the field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Was noticing this as well. The evolution is going as expected from what has been depicted by most guidance. Should see some 5-7” totals out of this one at this rate. Combo of 85H frontogen coupled with the mid-level ascent pattern should yield periods of 0.75-1.5”/hr rates for a time overnight into the early morning hrs. Where do you feel like we end up? Just down the road from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 I'm at 1" now. Greens incoming. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: So happy for all the mets that post here, you, @MillvilleWx, @WxMan1, @WxUSAF, @Terpeast and so forth! I ran out of reactions to give, but I appreciate the sentiment. Include @wxmvpetefrom now on. He’s an incredible Met and a great friend. Went to Millersville together for a time and work together at WPC. Amazing mind for winter weather and analysis. We’ve been looking forward to a day like this for a long time. It’s been a nice storm so far and will only continue to crank overnight. 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 2.75" in Fairfax Station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 Under those medium greens. Good rates, bigger flakes. 0.5-1”/hr 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 2 minutes ago, EB89 said: Where do you feel like we end up? Just down the road from you. 3-6” is a solid bar right now. We are over 2” currently and the good stuff is really just starting. NAM has been steady 4.5-6” for several runs. Sounds right for what’s transpiring. You in North FDK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Radar filling in nicely in this corridor 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Latest SPC mesoanalysis is showing I-95 and points west with some great lift in the dendritic growth layer. Should see some legit moderate or even briefly heavy snow soon. Can confirm. Heaviest SN+ of the entire storm here right now. Ratios are strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 I-66 green pipleline about to fire 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 Just now, Terpeast said: Under those medium greens. Good rates, bigger flakes. 0.5-1”/hr Its coming down good. Not as good as yesterdays squall out here. But a solid snowstorm for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 Man with the two or so already and another 4-5” would put everyone over 6! Did any model show that 24-48 hours ago?Be careful that map also includes sleet. NAM has a warm layer after 1am . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I ran out of reactions to give, but I appreciate the sentiment. Include @wxmvpetefrom now on. He’s an incredible Met and a great friend. Went to Millersville together for a time and work together at WPC. Amazing mind for winter weather and analysis. We’ve been looking forward to a day like this for a long time. It’s been a nice storm so far and will only continue to crank overnight. Yup. I went to MU as well with him, but he was going through the met program after I transferred out to Geography & Emergency Management. Pretty sure he was my lead forecaster for a semester. Solid dude. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris_B Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 3.5” in Arlington at 9:30 pm. Take that OPM. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 Things steady here in SE DC at 29......moderate snow. Looks fluffy but it's more like paste with a lot of liquid. Streets and driveways caved after 8pm. 2 1/2" flat so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: 3-6” is a solid bar right now. We are over 2” currently and the good stuff is really just starting. NAM has been steady 4.5-6” for several runs. Sounds right for what’s transpiring. You in North FDK? Sounds good to me. Yeah, right on the other side of the Rt. 15 bridge. North crossing/willowbrook near the sheetz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 Picture from my walk. The perfect winter’s night. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I-66 green pipleline about to fire The greens sure are nice. Pretty watching the snow in the lights outside. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 850 Frontogen just to our south. Bombs away! 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 23 minutes ago, Ji said: How creepy and accurate was this lol As long as we have snow chances still in early April, I'm all in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 Just now, clskinsfan said: 850 Frontogen just to our south. Bombs away! In for a good pummeling 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 Last week was a little tough. We did really well in my area, while places just to my south and east got barely anything. So great to see nearly the entire forum crushing it this evening. 23.3F and light snow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 Happy for y’all! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16, 2024 Share Posted January 16, 2024 3 minutes ago, EB89 said: Sounds good to me. Yeah, right on the other side of the Rt. 15 bridge. North crossing/willowbrook near the sheetz. Oh yeah. You are close. Right down the hill off Christopher Crossing. That Sheetz is my morning stop and gas fill up station. I’m right up the hill from you. I’ll wave next time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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