Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,793
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    manaja
    Newest Member
    manaja
    Joined

Jan 15-16 Storm Thread 3: Obs and Disco


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

Hell of a lot of snow coming up from the west southwest. It's high time they upped totals. NWS should issue outright Winter Storm Warnings. Fvck the models, use your EYES, nws for krise sake! Mid Atlantic is about to get pummeled by serious snow rates! 

I'm a goin out on a limb here. I know this son of a biotch is rotten and its cracking right now and I am one heavy son of a bytch for drinking too many IPAs, but I say NWS issue WSWs for 5-7 inches. The branch is breaking but I know how to fall, I fell lots of times on the damn ice trying to dance like Michael Jackson because I was so happy during an EPIC ice jebwalk! Just Do It, NWS!

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

revised WWA for my area. honestly i’ll be surprised if it verifies. 

Winchester WWA updated to 3-5”, too.

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
227 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

MDZ003-501-502-WVZ051>053-160330-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240116T1500Z/
Washington-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
227 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches,
  with higher amounts up to 6 inches on the higher hilltops.

* WHERE...Washington and Allegany counties in Maryland and
  Morgan, Berkeley, and Jefferson counties in West Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Tuesday.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, yoda said:

Oh

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
227 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016-018-503>506-VAZ053>057-501-502-505-506-526-
527-160330-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240116T1200Z/
District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-Calvert-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-
Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
227 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central and southern Maryland, The
  District of Columbia and central and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the afternoon and Tuesday morning commute.
 

Too lazy to go through the previous pages but was it 1-3 before?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Hell of a lot of snow coming up from the west southwest. It's high time they upped totals. NWS should issue outright Winter Storm Warnings. Fvck the models, use your EYES, nws for krise sake! Mid Atlantic is about to get pummeled by serious snow rates!

Coastal transfers, though.  That's probably the only glitch that bring down totals.  We'll see.  Temps are there...and that's the most difficult obstacle around here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Rippage now.  I guess.  it’s been so long….ok probably nice moderate snow. Just measured .7” and 28.8.   Pork butt is at 175 so a ways to go…

I still say just SN but the far distance is now fuzzy instead of clear when it was the sizzle fest.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is a reminder to pay zero attention to the HRRR for this storm unless it really gains a clue. It is off immensely at this point to where a certified meteorologist is not following it at all. It has been wrong the entire event so far. It had ZERO snow north of the Potomac for much of last night and didn’t have any until late runs as it was already happening. It has no snow in the area right now and we know for a fact it is dead wrong. 
 

Don’t bother. NBM is also too low on snow right now and it is because of the HRRR factor into the forecast. NAM Nest is doing a formidable job at the moment. Obs show a nice start and the best ascent is still to our south. Good stuff not till later. Enjoy and just watch it fall. Models be damned. 

  • Like 21
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is a reminder to pay zero attention to the HRRR for this storm unless it really gains a clue. It is off immensely at this point to where a certified meteorologist is not following it at all. It has been wrong the entire event so far. It had ZERO snow north of the Potomac for much of last night and didn’t have any until late runs as it was already happening. It has no snow in the area right now and we know for a fact it is dead wrong. 
 
Don’t bother. NBM is also too low on snow right now and it is because of the HRRR factor into the forecast. NAM Nest is doing a formidable job at the moment. Obs show a nice start and the best ascent is still to our south. Good stuff not till later. Enjoy and just watch it fall. Models be damned. 

What did you think of the latest NAM Nest, if you don’t mind me asking? Looked to be a decent (and sorta dramatic, at range) shift towards getting us impacts from the coastal.

Do you buy that it would be FRZA for the metro if we get any coastal sloppy seconds?
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, PWC Split said:

Can corroborate the 2 inches. I always take the last mow of the year down to 2 inches. No blades of grass visible = 2 inches of snow. Not exactly scientifically sound measuring, but works for my yard.

My grass is still poking out so I’m at bruesters overbuying half gallons of ice cream to help drive their sales today. We are doing milkshakes once the school caves. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is a reminder to pay zero attention to the HRRR for this storm unless it really gains a clue. It is off immensely at this point to where a certified meteorologist is not following it at all. It has been wrong the entire event so far. It had ZERO snow north of the Potomac for much of last night and didn’t have any until late runs as it was already happening. It has no snow in the area right now and we know for a fact it is dead wrong. 
 

Don’t bother. NBM is also too low on snow right now and it is because of the HRRR factor into the forecast. NAM Nest is doing a formidable job at the moment. Obs show a nice start and the best ascent is still to our south. Good stuff not till later. Enjoy and just watch it fall. Models be damned. 

I was just thinking that the NAM has had this cold. Many here continue to blast that model, when this is far from the first time that it's carried the day. Yes, it's streaky, but it's still often a better short-range model than the globals.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:


What did you think of the latest NAM Nest, if you don’t mind me asking? Looked to be a decent (and sorta dramatic, at range) shift towards getting us impacts from the coastal.

Do you buy that it would be FRZA for the metro if we get any coastal sloppy seconds?

It’s been fairly steady so far with the handling of everything, so it might have some merit. Areas along and SE of 95 would have a shot at mixing if the coastal formed close to the coast. Just a nature of the flow between 925-800mb advecting warm air. Ocean temps are above normal right now as should be the case, so it would promote better warm component being ushered in within the BL. Those NW of 95 should be fine. It’ll be close imo for the district and surrounds, that’s if the guidance has the handle of the coastal enhancement correctly. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is a reminder to pay zero attention to the HRRR for this storm unless it really gains a clue. It is off immensely at this point to where a certified meteorologist is not following it at all. It has been wrong the entire event so far. It had ZERO snow north of the Potomac for much of last night and didn’t have any until late runs as it was already happening. It has no snow in the area right now and we know for a fact it is dead wrong. 
 

Don’t bother. NBM is also too low on snow right now and it is because of the HRRR factor into the forecast. NAM Nest is doing a formidable job at the moment. Obs show a nice start and the best ascent is still to our south. Good stuff not till later. Enjoy and just watch it fall. Models be damned. 

Maybe they'll think twice about burying the NAM.

I haven't looked at the models today. Between working (if you can call it that) and watching the snowfall outside with a hot chocolate... it's nice to take winter all in at my new house. It's been a minute.

Bigger flakes, legit light snow, despite what the radar says. Moisture feed from Alabama/TN looks juicy

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Maybe they'll think twice about burying the NAM.

I haven't looked at the models today. Between working (if you can call it that) and watching the snowfall outside with a hot chocolate... it's nice to take winter all in at my new house. It's been a minute.

Bigger flakes, legit light snow, despite what the radar says.

the NAM is like JB. once in a while it gets something right.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is a reminder to pay zero attention to the HRRR for this storm unless it really gains a clue. It is off immensely at this point to where a certified meteorologist is not following it at all. It has been wrong the entire event so far. It had ZERO snow north of the Potomac for much of last night and didn’t have any until late runs as it was already happening. It has no snow in the area right now and we know for a fact it is dead wrong. 
 

Don’t bother. NBM is also too low on snow right now and it is because of the HRRR factor into the forecast. NAM Nest is doing a formidable job at the moment. Obs show a nice start and the best ascent is still to our south. Good stuff not till later. Enjoy and just watch it fall. Models be damned. 

Thank you Millville. Just take a look at what is coming up from the WSW on any radar you care to use.

WSW is warranted.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...