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Jan 15-16 Storm Thread 3: Obs and Disco


stormtracker
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  On 1/16/2024 at 3:04 AM, wxmeddler said:

500mb dry slot coming in and killing the DGZ RH. Plates and columns rather than dendrites.

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Yep good catch, that is probably the primary reason this band isn't a bigger 1-2"/hr setup. The lowest layer of the DGZ on down to the boundary layer is sufficient to give folks an advisory level event (pockets of warning criteria still possible). You want that DGZ zone layer fully saturated with strong VVs. Still, this is enough to produce a nice event here.

Sounding Area.JPG

Sounding RAP.JPG

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  On 1/16/2024 at 3:05 AM, 87storms said:

Starting to get some yellows rolling through. It’s very Jan ‘00 outside…very much an Atlantic/misty type of snowfall.

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  On 1/16/2024 at 3:13 AM, Scraff said:

Dayum! That FredCo deathband rippage incoming…

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Just looked at radar that is headed straight towards me. I am in Ballenger Creek. 

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  On 1/16/2024 at 3:16 AM, wxmvpete said:

Yep good catch, that is probably the primary reason this band isn't a bigger 1-2"/hr setup. The lowest layer of the DGZ on down to the boundary layer is sufficient to give folks an advisory level event (pockets of warning criteria still possible). You want that DGZ zone layer fully saturated with strong VVs. Still, this is enough to produce a nice event here.

Sounding Area.JPG

Sounding RAP.JPG

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However, take a look at early this morning up near the Lower Susquehanna Valley- that sounding regains some of that moisture at mid-upper levels with increasing VVs through the depth of the column. That could be pretty impressive over eastern PA if that can materialize Tuesday AM.

RAP Area.JPG

RAP Sounding.JPG

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  On 1/16/2024 at 3:20 AM, Grothar of Herndon said:

Moderate steady SN. Best flake size and rates of the storm. 
 

4” and have a shot at 6” with this over performer.

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this is our first storm in our new neighborhood - it's interesting how we are tracking pretty close to you guys who are more or less due west of us but with similar elevation.  We are basically the highest point going due west until you get to around Tysons (the Tysons skyline is actually pretty prominent from here and we can see buildings in Reston/Herndon).

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  On 1/16/2024 at 3:19 AM, pazzo83 said:

I'm really pumped how well DC and the inner burbs are doing in this storm.  Literally hundreds of thousands of happy kids right now.

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It definitely feels like an overperformer for the metro.  I was just outside and could hear some of the neighborhood kids sledding/having fun outside.  Really awesome.

Roads are definitely slick - truck just got stuck going up our street.

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