Wxdood Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 16 minutes ago, wxmvpete said: 850mb warm air advection continues to increase with 850mb frontogenesis that will support a band of heavier snow N&W of DC in the coming hours. What becomes the wildcard is the approach of a 500mb jet streak over the OH Valley overnight. At the nose of the jet, divergent flow atop the atmosphere will support healthy vertical velocities 12Z Tuesday. This is driving the snowier solutions from northern MD into eastern PA. The new NAM seems to feature similar setup. Oof... bad ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: So happy for all the mets that post here, you, @MillvilleWx, @WxMan1, @WxUSAF, @Terpeast and so forth! Really appreciate all your input. This is a truly fascinating place in the autumn and winter, I learn so much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: It's definitely gotten heavier in baltimore over the last 15 minutes Nice 20-30dbz over the city right now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, Ji said: How creepy and accurate was this lol I'm loving this event, but I'm really hoping this is accurate when it applies to the first half of February! Let this be the beginning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Surpassed 4 inches, 27F moderate snow 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Look how close the low is coming 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, Ji said: Look how close the low is coming jan 25 2000 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 9 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Impressive additional snow Man with the two or so already and another 4-5” would put everyone over 6! Did any model show that 24-48 hours ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Latest SPC mesoanalysis is showing I-95 and points west with some great lift in the dendritic growth layer. Should see some legit moderate or even briefly heavy snow soon. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 A little less than 3" here in Crofton MD as of 9 pm. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just had a perfect Jebwalk. Nothing more refreshing than pouring snow and 23 degrees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just hit the 3 inch mark here. Back to moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Man with the two or so already and another 4-5” would put everyone over 6! Did any model show that 24-48 hours ago? Nam was close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Radar filling in nicely in this corridor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Just had a perfect Jewalk. Nothing more refreshing than pouring snow and 23 degrees. I love that the whole area is getting in on this. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Look how close the low is coming Looks great. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 11 minutes ago, Ji said: How creepy and accurate was this lol Weird. February might not work out that way though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Latest LWX AFD Quote Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 915 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure sliding to our south will bring widespread light to moderate snow to the region. The low pressure system will slide off the Delmarva coast Tuesday morning with arctic high pressure building in. Dry and cold conditions are expected midweek before another wave of low pressure and front approach Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Frontogenetical band has been lifting northward into the area this evening ahead of a wave of low pressure. Moderate to briefly heavy rates are occurring within this band and will lead to deteriorating travel conditions. So far, snow measurements and model data are largely on track with the official forecast. The northwestern portion of the CWA has been underperforming as drier air has held firm, but this band will still affect most of those areas before pivoting away. On the other hand, if the band becomes stationary or has a pivot point, some places could reach warning criteria of around 5-6 inches. It still appears most probable this would occur across north central Maryland, but confidence is still not high enough to upgrade due to the mesoscale nature of any such feature...with consensus being most areas receive an additional 2-4 inches before the snow winds down in the morning (except southern Maryland where rates have already decreased). Some freezing rain may mix in on the tail end of the system across central VA and southern MD with warmer air trying to work in as it departs Tuesday...although freezing drizzle could also be an outcome due to some drying aloft. Some guidance has the northwest extent of the ice into the Baltimore/Washington metro, but even if it were to occur, amounts would be very light with minimal additional impact. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the aforementioned threats above. Mountain locations will see a touch more snow with accumulations ranging between 4 to 8 inches along and west of the Allegheny Front. This is due to the added lift from the terrain plus upslope component that looks to keep snow going through early Tuesday afternoon, and Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for this area. Lows will not drop too far from current readings overnight in the mid to upper 20s areawide outside the mountains. Low pressure will continue to lift north and east of the Delmarva coast Tuesday morning. Some light snow may linger over northern MD through mid-morning with upslope snow showers set to continue in northwest flow over the mountains through Tuesday afternoon. Highs Tuesday will range between the teens over the mountains to mid to upper 30s south/east of I-95. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Right around 3” in Great Falls. Coming down at a pretty good rate. Georgetown Pike caved long ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 13 minutes ago, wxmvpete said: Really starting to see returns filling in at higher radar tilts in western VA. What originally featured drier returns around 4,800ft out near the I-66/I-81 merger (around 850mb) is showing brighter returns. For those who have patiently waited in Northern MD, those heavier rates will be realized soon. Was noticing this as well. The evolution is going as expected from what has been depicted by most guidance. Should see some 5-7” totals out of this one at this rate. Combo of 85H frontogen coupled with the mid-level ascent pattern should yield periods of 0.75-1.5”/hr rates for a time overnight into the early morning hrs. 7 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Radar filling in nicely in this corridor C'ville to Fred to WSH is the pipeline I need 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Pushing an inch here. Steadier snow finally starting to accumulate. 24f perfect evening with a fire crackling... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Weird. February might not work out that way though. It will. Winter will take a break next week and then come running back onto the field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Was noticing this as well. The evolution is going as expected from what has been depicted by most guidance. Should see some 5-7” totals out of this one at this rate. Combo of 85H frontogen coupled with the mid-level ascent pattern should yield periods of 0.75-1.5”/hr rates for a time overnight into the early morning hrs. Where do you feel like we end up? Just down the road from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I'm at 1" now. Greens incoming. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: So happy for all the mets that post here, you, @MillvilleWx, @WxMan1, @WxUSAF, @Terpeast and so forth! I ran out of reactions to give, but I appreciate the sentiment. Include @wxmvpetefrom now on. He’s an incredible Met and a great friend. Went to Millersville together for a time and work together at WPC. Amazing mind for winter weather and analysis. We’ve been looking forward to a day like this for a long time. It’s been a nice storm so far and will only continue to crank overnight. 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2.75" in Fairfax Station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Under those medium greens. Good rates, bigger flakes. 0.5-1”/hr 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, EB89 said: Where do you feel like we end up? Just down the road from you. 3-6” is a solid bar right now. We are over 2” currently and the good stuff is really just starting. NAM has been steady 4.5-6” for several runs. Sounds right for what’s transpiring. You in North FDK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Radar filling in nicely in this corridor 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Latest SPC mesoanalysis is showing I-95 and points west with some great lift in the dendritic growth layer. Should see some legit moderate or even briefly heavy snow soon. Can confirm. Heaviest SN+ of the entire storm here right now. Ratios are strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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