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Jan 15-16 Storm Thread 3: Obs and Disco


stormtracker
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850mb warm air advection continues to increase with 850mb frontogenesis that will support a band of heavier snow N&W of DC in the coming hours. What becomes the wildcard is the approach of a 500mb jet streak over the OH Valley overnight. At the nose of the jet, divergent flow atop the atmosphere will support healthy vertical velocities 12Z Tuesday. This is driving the snowier solutions from northern MD into eastern PA. The new NAM seems to feature similar setup.

85mb Frontogenesis.JPG

RAP 500mb.JPG

500mb VVs.JPG

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5 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Side note, how do you guys attach your pics in here. I've tried and every pic I took with my phone today it's saying are too large to attach. Just normal phone camera 

On mobile I screenshot the photo in my camera roll. Works like a charm.

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14 minutes ago, TinGTown said:

Still no flakes in Georgetown (DC) for several hours.  It's now a misty rain. What are we to expect?

 

Steady misty rain for several hours. Mist will transition to snizzle then to reasonably heavy snow. You'll get 2-3 inches right at the end! Enjoy the storm.

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Just now, nj2va said:

Approaching 3”. Just took our 16 year old Scottie out on the front lawn since she loves snow as much as me. Given her age, we try to cherish all the moments like this.

Hope everyone is enjoying this as much as us.

 

Mine passed last week, my daughter just asked if she would have enjoyed the snow.

The falling snow hid the tears.

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9 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Side note, how do you guys attach your pics in here. I've tried and every pic I took with my phone today it's saying are too large to attach. Just normal phone camera 

It's a janky solution but I screenshot the pics I take and then post the screenshot. Lol.

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21 minutes ago, goodwidp said:

I stopped turning my Xmas lights on a week or so ago but left them up in hopes we'd get some snow. I am officially pleased with that decision. 

 

n2RHOfw_d.thumb.webp.babcc95f1652f47f0c56e07d3710d87b.webp

 

 

Well done.  Thought I was the only one who was thinking the same thing.  Took about half of ours down outside but left up enough to provide the ambiance.  

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3 minutes ago, wxmvpete said:

850mb warm air advection continues to increase with 850mb frontogenesis that will support a band of heavier snow N&W of DC in the coming hours. What becomes the wildcard is the approach of a 500mb jet streak over the OH Valley overnight. At the nose of the jet, divergent flow atop the atmosphere will support healthy vertical velocities 12Z Tuesday. This is driving the snowier solutions from northern MD into eastern PA. The new NAM seems to feature similar setup.

85mb Frontogenesis.JPG

RAP 500mb.JPG

500mb VVs.JPG

Can you make is sag south a tiny bit?

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6 minutes ago, wxmvpete said:

850mb warm air advection continues to increase with 850mb frontogenesis that will support a band of heavier snow N&W of DC in the coming hours. What becomes the wildcard is the approach of a 500mb jet streak over the OH Valley overnight. At the nose of the jet, divergent flow atop the atmosphere will support healthy vertical velocities 12Z Tuesday. This is driving the snowier solutions from northern MD into eastern PA. The new NAM seems to feature similar setup.

85mb Frontogenesis.JPG

RAP 500mb.JPG

500mb VVs.JPG

Great post and good commentary. The band moves generally NW over the burbs to Mt. PSU crew in the early AM hours and there is absolutely influence from the h5 jet. Starting to see more and more influence in the short term hi res models. I think places north of Baltimore from Westminster over to Bel Air could cash in big time since they'll get both parts of the storm. 

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