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Jan 15-16 Storm Thread 3: Obs and Disco


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Using the HRRR 1hr frame and flipping back, seems like we're verifying colder each hour! Maybe this light consistent snow is helping bring things down. I'm optimistic roads and sidewalks will cave fast and with better temps for ratios and a surprise head start, I think we can surprise to the upside!

Yup! Even if it's lightly precipitating, that's a good thing. The evaporational cooling keeps temps down.

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It was a tough decision but I went with dosidos #22. May add in some fuel biscuits if things get really dicey 

Prime choice. Love me some Dosidos #22. I had some blue dream delivered by the dispo yesterday in anticipation of having a white dream today. Can’t wait to dive in later on tonight while I take a J…eb walk.
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1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Maybe they'll think twice about burying the NAM.

I haven't looked at the models today. Between working (if you can call it that) and watching the snowfall outside with a hot chocolate... it's nice to take winter all in at my new house. It's been a minute.

Bigger flakes, legit light snow, despite what the radar says. Moisture feed from Alabama/TN looks juicy

The NAM when it actually has the synoptic level stuff right and isn’t off on a tangent resolves the meso details best of any guidance. The program is it’s off on a tangent every other run and it’s hard to tell when breasted it isn’t consistent in how it goes crazy. It can have feedback issues and suppress a storm. Or be way over amplified. It adds confusion imo. 
 

Frankly all the meso models do imo. I used to try to use them and it burned me so often I stopped. Now I basically use a blend of the globals and my gut instinct then at short range apply common sense to get the meso details. I’ll look at the high res models to get an idea what the details might look like but then I apply that to the Synoptics of the globals. It’s been working for me. Maybe someday they will develop a meso model that isn’t prone to wild tangents. 

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3 hours ago, baltosquid said:

This was at about 1:30pm. Snow has been a consistent, light rate pretty much since then. Nothing super heavy and only the usual first-caving surfaces are covered, but real pretty. I haven't done measurements, probably still under an inch on the deck. 
IMG_7703.jpg?ex=65b81acb&is=65a5a5cb&hm=a73c4d4c513f810f715d9d95d0ee2c77a537484a25cb6905f0639f92fba5cb81&

Using the HRRR 1hr frame and flipping back, seems like we're verifying colder each hour! Maybe this light consistent snow is helping bring things down. I'm optimistic roads and sidewalks will cave fast and with better temps for ratios and a surprise head start, I think we can surprise to the upside!

Patterson Park?

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