Deck Pic Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 For I-95 there is definitely a danger that we lull overnight as everything pushes north and west. How this unfolds is still unclear. of course if I have 3” at midnight I’m not gonna whine too much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 5 minutes ago, high risk said: The NAM struggles with synoptics for sure, but once it figures those out, it's pretty damn good with winter event details. And to be clear, I'm focused on the 3 km NAM Nest, as the 12 km parent is meh. There is no model better than the NAM Nest for resolving cold air damming, and while it sometimes runs too cold in the low levels when sorting out precip details, it's also really good at capturing warm layers that screw up a snow profile. The RRFS has yet to prove competence in these areas, and the HRRR isn't great either, so we will miss the NAM on some days when it's gone. I prefer a model that is too slow on eroding cold air damming. For Example, if it shows you're above freezing by 12:00 pm and we know it has a cold bias, then it boosts confidence that things will clear up in the afternoon. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 5 minutes ago, high risk said: The NAM struggles with synoptics for sure, but once it figures those out, it's pretty damn good with winter event details. And to be clear, I'm focused on the 3 km NAM Nest, as the 12 km parent is meh. There is no model better than the NAM Nest for resolving cold air damming, and while it sometimes runs too cold in the low levels when sorting out precip details, it's also really good at capturing warm layers that screw up a snow profile. The RRFS has yet to prove competence in these areas, and the HRRR isn't great either, so we will miss the NAM on some days when it's gone. This ^ The NAM has its faults, but when it has the right setup in line, it can be very useful. This seems like one of those times it has a good handle on the synoptic evolution and handling the thermals properly. It’s been fairly rock steady for a long succession of runs. Great to see considering the HRRR isn’t just out to lunch, I think it’s on vacation… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: I prefer a model that is too slow on eroding cold air damming. For Example, if it shows you're above freezing by 12:00 pm and we know it has a cold bias, then it boosts confidence that things will clear up in the afternoon. I agree 100%, and the NAM Nest is that model. It's sometimes a bit too slow in eroding the cold air, but that's better than the GFS and HRRR which wipe it out way too fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Clarksville mesonet site reporting a snow depth of M0.4". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 23 minutes ago, Wxtrix said: revised WWA for my area. honestly i’ll be surprised if it verifies. Winchester WWA updated to 3-5”, too. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 227 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 MDZ003-501-502-WVZ051>053-160330- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240116T1500Z/ Washington-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 227 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with higher amounts up to 6 inches on the higher hilltops. * WHERE...Washington and Allegany counties in Maryland and Morgan, Berkeley, and Jefferson counties in West Virginia. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Tuesday. They lowered us from 4-6". I agree with you, based off guidance 2-4" seems a better bet for us but we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Roads caved again! Light Snow Temp 27.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, understudyhero said: When I got almost two gallons, the kid asked “do you need a spoon?” Like I was going to eat it in the parking lot. Well…did you get the spoon? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1.0” here fine light snow 27/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Back to --SN Roads are laughing at these rates (or lack thereof) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 26.8, closing in on 0.5" in Easton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: For I-95 there is definitely a danger that we lull overnight as everything pushes north and west. How this unfolds is still unclear. of course if I have 3” at midnight I’m not gonna whine too much. Sitting at 0.8" so 2.2" to go!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 24 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: This is a reminder to pay zero attention to the HRRR for this storm unless it really gains a clue. It is off immensely at this point to where a certified meteorologist is not following it at all. It has been wrong the entire event so far. It had ZERO snow north of the Potomac for much of last night and didn’t have any until late runs as it was already happening. It has no snow in the area right now and we know for a fact it is dead wrong. Don’t bother. NBM is also too low on snow right now and it is because of the HRRR factor into the forecast. NAM Nest is doing a formidable job at the moment. Obs show a nice start and the best ascent is still to our south. Good stuff not till later. Enjoy and just watch it fall. Models be damned. It was snowing here when the sun came up and it is still snowing! I don’t care if it has only accumulated an inch or two so far. It has been awesome! 29° 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, Warm Nose said: Back to --SN Roads are laughing at these rates (or lack thereof) Sunset should give the snow some ammo. I can see already driveway is slushy again. Just hope the snow stays around long enough to capitalize on the temps and darkness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Congrats to everyone getting decent snow today! At this point my bar is set at breaking the 1" mark here which feels like it's been an eternity since we've seen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3:30 update Light snow. Really have not had much in way of flakes but just grains. 1.25” on board and 27.5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said: Congrats to everyone getting decent snow today! At this point my bar is set at breaking the 1" mark here which feels like it's been an eternity since we've seen. Over 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Nice snow band seems to be parked overhead. Can tell it’s picked up a bit in my corner of Arlington. Should be a bit over 1”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 As of 3:00 pm on 1/15: BWI, M0.5" DCA, M0.7" IAD, M0.9" 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Judging from radar, I expect to see a slight lull in rates before picking up again this evening. Unless that moisture to the south pushes north of 50. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Still snow in Ashland (just north of Richmond). Walkway and driveway starting to cave a little. looks like we have maybe another . To 1” to go before it moves out 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Nice snow band seems to be parked overhead. Can tell it’s picked up a bit in my corner of Arlington. Should be a bit over 1”. Huh… roads have caved. Wasn’t watching closely. Game on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Upgrades maybe? Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 326 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure sliding to our south will bring widespread light to moderate snow to the region. The low pressure system will slide off the Delmarva coast Tuesday morning with arctic high pressure building in. Dry and cold conditions are expected midweek before another wave of low pressure and front approach Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Snow will continue to pick up in intensity while overspreading the area from the south and west this afternoon. This is in response to a strong wave of low pressure ejecting out of the Tennessee River Valley and into the central Appalachians later this evening and into the overnight hours. The strongest lift with this system looks to arrive between 6pm-2am. This is when most of the area could see a period of moderate snow. Current 12z HREF guidance continues to hold on a general 3 to 5 inches of snow across much of northern/central MD and northern VA with even a few members hinting at amounts of 6"+ across northern portions of Frederick, Baltimore, Carroll, Harford, and Cecil counties (in the favored climo/Parrs Ridge zone). Elsewhere, a general 2-4 inches of snow is likely across much of the Shenandoah Valley, central VA, and southern MD. Some freezing rain may mix in on the tail end of the system across central VA and southern MD with warmer air trying to work in as it departs Tuesday. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the aforementioned threats above. These advisories may need to be re- evaluated especially with forecast snow to liquid ratios running as high as 20:1 during the period of strongest upward motion this evening into the front half of the overnight hours. Mountain locations will see a touch more snow with accumulations ranging between 4 to 8 inches along and west of the Allegheny Front. This is due to the added lift from the terrain plus upslope component that looks to keep snow going through early Tuesday afternoon. Highest snow amounts look to be from Keysers Ridge south along Backbone Mountain and down toward Spruce Knob, WV where Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect. High temperatures will range from the teens over the mountains to upper 20s across most of the region. Lows will be quite similar overnight in the mid to upper 20s areawide outside the mountains. Low pressure will continue to lift north and east of the Delmarva coast Tuesday morning. Some light snow may linger over northern MD through mid-morning with upslope snow showers set to continue in northwest flow over the mountains through Tuesday afternoon. Highs Tuesday will range between the teens over the mountains to mid to upper 30s south/east of I-95. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Huh… roads have caved. Wasn’t watching closely. Game on. Yeah, they did here too in the last half hour or so. (It actually is the sun angle) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 BTW... 20:1 SLRs? Wow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Yeah, they did here too in the last half hour or so. (It actually is the sun angle) No caving here. Roads winning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Huh… roads have caved. Wasn’t watching closely. Game on. yeah we are in that band too - probably 1.5" here (i'm at around 400'). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, yoda said: BTW... 20:1 SLRs? Wow Wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Steady light snow 1” on ground in waiting for residential street to cave. Temp 30 DP 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 DC-Annapolis deathband setting up 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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