ravensrule Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Little more aggressive on the backside too… still has a fair bit of us in FRZA rather than snow though Talk dirty to me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 56 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. We're playing with house money right now. Right? We weren't supposed to have an inch by now. I was assuming the snow would start mid-late afternoon anyway 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, GATECH said: Rippage now. I guess. it’s been so long….ok probably nice moderate snow. Just measured .7” and 28.8. Pork butt is at 175 so a ways to go… I still say just SN but the far distance is now fuzzy instead of clear when it was the sizzle fest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 What's your go-to radar site? Nothing does the trick for me. Closest thing to acceptable is this cod map, but not enough perspective for my liking. NWS is just god-awful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 It’s legit light snow at my house and ground is whitening up so I don’t have to call a realtor. Progress. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 This is a reminder to pay zero attention to the HRRR for this storm unless it really gains a clue. It is off immensely at this point to where a certified meteorologist is not following it at all. It has been wrong the entire event so far. It had ZERO snow north of the Potomac for much of last night and didn’t have any until late runs as it was already happening. It has no snow in the area right now and we know for a fact it is dead wrong. Don’t bother. NBM is also too low on snow right now and it is because of the HRRR factor into the forecast. NAM Nest is doing a formidable job at the moment. Obs show a nice start and the best ascent is still to our south. Good stuff not till later. Enjoy and just watch it fall. Models be damned. 21 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 The goods are approaching Dahlgren to Lex park. It might take a little while to advance north/northwest 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 This is a reminder to pay zero attention to the HRRR for this storm unless it really gains a clue. It is off immensely at this point to where a certified meteorologist is not following it at all. It has been wrong the entire event so far. It had ZERO snow north of the Potomac for much of last night and didn’t have any until late runs as it was already happening. It has no snow in the area right now and we know for a fact it is dead wrong. Don’t bother. NBM is also too low on snow right now and it is because of the HRRR factor into the forecast. NAM Nest is doing a formidable job at the moment. Obs show a nice start and the best ascent is still to our south. Good stuff not till later. Enjoy and just watch it fall. Models be damned. What did you think of the latest NAM Nest, if you don’t mind me asking? Looked to be a decent (and sorta dramatic, at range) shift towards getting us impacts from the coastal. Do you buy that it would be FRZA for the metro if we get any coastal sloppy seconds? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 8 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said: Too lazy to go through the previous pages but was it 1-3 before? 2-3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
understudyhero Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 12 minutes ago, PWC Split said: Can corroborate the 2 inches. I always take the last mow of the year down to 2 inches. No blades of grass visible = 2 inches of snow. Not exactly scientifically sound measuring, but works for my yard. My grass is still poking out so I’m at bruesters overbuying half gallons of ice cream to help drive their sales today. We are doing milkshakes once the school caves. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 2-3 Cool! Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Nam really starting to increase coastal snows. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: This is a reminder to pay zero attention to the HRRR for this storm unless it really gains a clue. It is off immensely at this point to where a certified meteorologist is not following it at all. It has been wrong the entire event so far. It had ZERO snow north of the Potomac for much of last night and didn’t have any until late runs as it was already happening. It has no snow in the area right now and we know for a fact it is dead wrong. Don’t bother. NBM is also too low on snow right now and it is because of the HRRR factor into the forecast. NAM Nest is doing a formidable job at the moment. Obs show a nice start and the best ascent is still to our south. Good stuff not till later. Enjoy and just watch it fall. Models be damned. I was just thinking that the NAM has had this cold. Many here continue to blast that model, when this is far from the first time that it's carried the day. Yes, it's streaky, but it's still often a better short-range model than the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: What did you think of the latest NAM Nest, if you don’t mind me asking? Looked to be a decent (and sorta dramatic, at range) shift towards getting us impacts from the coastal. Do you buy that it would be FRZA for the metro if we get any coastal sloppy seconds? It’s been fairly steady so far with the handling of everything, so it might have some merit. Areas along and SE of 95 would have a shot at mixing if the coastal formed close to the coast. Just a nature of the flow between 925-800mb advecting warm air. Ocean temps are above normal right now as should be the case, so it would promote better warm component being ushered in within the BL. Those NW of 95 should be fine. It’ll be close imo for the district and surrounds, that’s if the guidance has the handle of the coastal enhancement correctly. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 5 minutes ago, understudyhero said: My grass is still poking out so I’m at bruesters overbuying half gallons of ice cream to help drive their sales today. We are doing milkshakes once the school caves. Bring me 2 pints of vanilla, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: This is a reminder to pay zero attention to the HRRR for this storm unless it really gains a clue. It is off immensely at this point to where a certified meteorologist is not following it at all. It has been wrong the entire event so far. It had ZERO snow north of the Potomac for much of last night and didn’t have any until late runs as it was already happening. It has no snow in the area right now and we know for a fact it is dead wrong. Don’t bother. NBM is also too low on snow right now and it is because of the HRRR factor into the forecast. NAM Nest is doing a formidable job at the moment. Obs show a nice start and the best ascent is still to our south. Good stuff not till later. Enjoy and just watch it fall. Models be damned. Maybe they'll think twice about burying the NAM. I haven't looked at the models today. Between working (if you can call it that) and watching the snowfall outside with a hot chocolate... it's nice to take winter all in at my new house. It's been a minute. Bigger flakes, legit light snow, despite what the radar says. Moisture feed from Alabama/TN looks juicy 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Maybe they'll think twice about burying the NAM. I haven't looked at the models today. Between working (if you can call it that) and watching the snowfall outside with a hot chocolate... it's nice to take winter all in at my new house. It's been a minute. Bigger flakes, legit light snow, despite what the radar says. the NAM is like JB. once in a while it gets something right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Measured 0.1” lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: This is a reminder to pay zero attention to the HRRR for this storm unless it really gains a clue. It is off immensely at this point to where a certified meteorologist is not following it at all. It has been wrong the entire event so far. It had ZERO snow north of the Potomac for much of last night and didn’t have any until late runs as it was already happening. It has no snow in the area right now and we know for a fact it is dead wrong. Don’t bother. NBM is also too low on snow right now and it is because of the HRRR factor into the forecast. NAM Nest is doing a formidable job at the moment. Obs show a nice start and the best ascent is still to our south. Good stuff not till later. Enjoy and just watch it fall. Models be damned. Thank you Millville. Just take a look at what is coming up from the WSW on any radar you care to use. WSW is warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 some of these shots from like Mississippi are crazy - blowing/drifting snow with temps in the low teens. Of course all the roads are snow covered because it's MS. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Visibility is at 0.75 miles at DCA and 0.5 miles at IAD on 3pm obs https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=RWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 0.8" as of 3pm I had 0.5" at 6 am this morning. Its snowed 0.3" in 9 hours. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 The hood of my truck has caved slightly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Up to 1". First 1" storm since March 2022. Nice Jebwalk. Will need some aloe for my sunburn though. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, H2O said: The hood of my truck has caved slightly Is the trashcan lid okay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Maybe they'll think twice about burying the NAM. The NAM struggles with synoptics for sure, but once it figures those out, it's pretty damn good with winter event details. And to be clear, I'm focused on the 3 km NAM Nest, as the 12 km parent is meh. There is no model better than the NAM Nest for resolving cold air damming, and while it sometimes runs too cold in the low levels when sorting out precip details, it's also really good at capturing warm layers that screw up a snow profile. The RRFS has yet to prove competence in these areas, and the HRRR isn't great either, so we will miss the NAM on some days when it's gone. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Some of the untreated roads are I surprisingly bad shape. Saw two cars in the ditch and one stuck on a hill between marriotsville and Owings mills. Just got back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
understudyhero Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 8 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Bring me 2 pints of vanilla, thanks When I got almost two gallons, the kid asked “do you need a spoon?” Like I was going to eat it in the parking lot. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdcrob Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Approaching an inch already @yoda's house (more or less). Light, uninterrupted snow for hours now. Very nice to watch on a day off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Steady light snow in Federal Hill/Inner Harbor of Baltimore. Still not sticking to pavement, but sticking well to everything else. I'd say about 3/4 inch on parked cars combined with what was there this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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