MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, MJO812 said: Icon I honestly am happy for DC and Philly this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Cold air in place and cant get a good storm. What a sin. I think we could of predicted this would be the outcome. What BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I honestly am happy for DC and Philly this year. What about us. It’s been a while up here too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: What about us. It’s been a while up here too I think their last above average snowfall season was 15/16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I think their last above average snowfall season was 15/16. We also have been snowstarved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 17 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: Cold air in place and cant get a good storm. What a sin. I think we could of predicted this would be the outcome. What BS. It really is depressing In the past we would have a huge storm anytime the NAO goes positive or negative. Old Man Winter doesn't like us anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 16 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: Cold air in place and cant get a good storm. What a sin. I think we could of predicted this would be the outcome. What BS. This is normally the outcome. Snow around the NYC metro area is a miracle. Without cold air, there really isn't much of a chance. With cold air, it is a crapshoot. Things have to align up almost perfectly. Too much development, not enough development, too late development, small swath dried up, near miss, locusts... 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Sref 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, Dark Star said: This is normally the outcome. Snow around the NYC metro area is a miracle. Without cold air, there really isn't much of a chance. With cold air, it is a crapshoot. Things have to align up almost perfectly. Too much development, not enough development, too late development, small swath dried up, near miss, locusts... We live in the worst part of NY for winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We also have been snowstarved. At least we had 20/21 as a solidly above average snowfall winter. 21/22 was ok just below average. They have had ratter after ratter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Good thing is we don’t have monitor that closely. General 1-3” with areas of 3-5 that get under some heavier banding and have elevation. Will be interesting to see where that sets up but that’s for now casting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12 minutes ago, Dark Star said: This is normally the outcome. Snow around the NYC metro area is a miracle. Without cold air, there really isn't much of a chance. With cold air, it is a crapshoot. Things have to align up almost perfectly. Too much development, not enough development, too late development, small swath dried up, near miss, locusts... NYC averages 25-30 inches a year. This isn't Atlanta. What we've seen the last few winters is NOT the normal outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 17 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: Good thing is we don’t have monitor that closely. General 1-3” with areas of 3-5 that get under some heavier banding and have elevation. Will be interesting to see where that sets up but that’s for now casting. Banding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: NYC averages 25-30 inches a year. This isn't Atlanta. What we've seen the last few winters is NOT the normal outcome. True but I think a component of our average is due to above average winters where we get a KU (or two in some cases). Without those, we get these nickel and dime events such as this past Sunday / Monday's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 13 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: NYC averages 25-30 inches a year. This isn't Atlanta. What we've seen the last few winters is NOT the normal outcome. Been around since 1959. Snow around these parts ia always a miracle. Rain/Snow line can come into play, even when it is below 20 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Banding? Sorry wrong word, heaviest returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Been around since 1959. Snow around these parts ia always a miracle. Rain/Snow line can come into play, even when it is below 20 degrees. This just isn't true. If getting any snow was ALWAYS a miracle then NYC would average less than 10 inches a year. If you want to talk KUs then I agree but I think it's quite a stretch to say that getting any snow in NYC is a miracle when it's averaged almost 30 inches a year for a century. I would agree that this is a marginal area for snow and it's tough to get all snow events but it's not a snow desert around here generally. The last 2 winters have fooled people into thinking this is the norm just like 2000-2018 did in the opposite direction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 We had the bonanza years with multiple KU’s up until 2018, got lucky again in 2020-21 and now we’re seeing the opposite side of it. Averages are what they are and our latitude is something else we can’t change. I’m not happy either that this appears to be going the wrong way but at least we have something outside right now and cold for a few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 15 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: This just isn't true. If getting any snow was ALWAYS a miracle then NYC would average less than 10 inches a year. If you want to talk KUs then I agree but I think it's quite a stretch to say that getting any snow in NYC is a miracle when it's averaged almost 30 inches a year for a century. I would agree that this is a marginal area for snow and it's tough to get all snow events but it's not a snow desert around here generally. The last 2 winters have fooled people into thinking this is the norm just like 2000-2018 did in the opposite direction. We’re well below average for snow so far this winter but Nino winters usually are best in late Jan into Feb so there’s a decent enough chance at a turnaround. There’s nothing big on the horizon for now but hopefully in Feb we can reload the pattern and time cold air with a big storm. But if not, averages and eventually we need to pay the piper for all the big snow years. It sucks and I don’t like it either but it’s how it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Ooh boy, I'm at 5" for the year so far Another 1.5" on Friday will be awesome and might even cover the grass in the front yard for the first time this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I feel like the NAM may be "slightly" better. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 And here's the NWS Philly updated snowfall map. We do have an obvious discontinuity between the offices from Union up through Passaic, where the NWS-NYC has 1-2" while the NWS-Philly has adjacent Middlesex, Somerset, and Morris at 2-3". This often happens this far in advance and the offices should address this in future updates. It's also worth noting that the NWS-Philly is a bit more bullish than the NBM, while the NWS-NYC is in line with the NBM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: I feel like the NAM may be "slightly" better. Maybe. It's way better More amped and vort is further north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 This is a 1 to 2" storm with some isolated 3s. No need to overthink it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Better than 6z worse than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: This is a 1 to 2" storm with some isolated 3s. No need to overthink it Way too early for amounts 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, kat5hurricane said: NYC averages 25-30 inches a year. This isn't Atlanta. What we've seen the last few winters is NOT the normal outcome. Unfortunately this area is all or nothing a lot of the time. The second half of the 1980s averaged 15.85 inches. The last 4 years of the 1990s averaged 11.125. That 25 to 30 average is heavily skewed by 2 periods, 1955 through 1969 (a LOT of KUs that period) as well as 2000 through 2018. Keep in mind CPK had only 5 winters in 30 years (70 through 99) with at least average snowfall. That 30 year average was 21.90667 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Better than 6z worse than 0z that is some top notch analysis. It improved at 500 mb since 00z. There is a ceiling with this, but the 500 mb improvement could yield a bit more snow down the road. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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