Volcanic Winter Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 hours ago, SRRTA22 said: No matter what we get, this week was AWESOME. Cold and snowy. Who cares how much we get...enjoy it Yep, I loved this week. I enjoy the cold and need more than just snow followed by immediate warmth. So regardless of relatively tame snow totals, this was such a refreshing week of actual winter for me and it’ll get me through if the remaining season is terrible and warm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 It’s fully possible the city north gets nothing. Heading in, soon for snow removal. Would not be surprised that the extreme amount of salt we put down may prevent anything from accumulating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s fully possible the city north gets nothing. Heading in, soon for snow removal. Would not be surprised that the extreme amount of salt we put down may prevent anything from accumulating Looking the radar,its coming bud ..this winter everything has trended north not south yet the models keep it south and drying up lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said: Looking the radar,its coming bud ..this winter everything has trended north not south yet the models keep it south and drying up lol For dca. Bwi, looks great down there, but draw a line and that’s south/central Jersey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 First flakes are falling here on Barnegat Bay. 31.7 While 4-6 is being called for, I'd be surprised if we don't mix for a period of time between 11 and 2 on the water. Everything else looks good for our biggest snowfall in the past two years. Very interested in watching the live breakdown of where the IVT sets up and if any actual banding sets up for a brief bit. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Overcast 23/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 45 minutes ago, dseagull said: First flakes are falling here on Barnegat Bay. 31.7 While 4-6 is being called for, I'd be surprised if we don't mix for a period of time between 11 and 2 on the water. Everything else looks good for our biggest snowfall in the past two years. Very interested in watching the live breakdown of where the IVT sets up and if any actual banding sets up for a brief bit. I saw earlier they expected mixing east of the parkway up to approximately Monmouth / Ocean line. Not sure if that’s still the case as things have shifted around prior to Go time, but I do think you’ll definitely see decent accumulation. Good luck! No flakes here yet to your north, about ten miles inland on the TR / Manchester border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Volcanic Winter said: I saw earlier they expected mixing east of the parkway up to approximately Monmouth / Ocean line. Not sure if that’s still the case as things have shifted around prior to Go time, but I do think you’ll definitely see decent accumulation. Good luck! You will do really well with this today. 3-4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 11 hours ago, LibertyBell said: any reports from the Poconos, Walt? did not check... had to be less than 0.3" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: You will do really well with this today. 3-4 Thanks man! Hope so, I’m well west of the Parkway so hopefully avoiding the mix at the immediate coast. We’ll see. Was hoping all of CNJ cashes in to make up for the first N only event. 29/23 here now. Good luck dude! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 A possible statistical 3AM reality check. Chance of snow exceeding 1". Brown starts 80%. I think where its brown, is also a very good chance of 2+. The rest is yours to debate. It should snow an inch into Fairfield Litchfield counties. maybe spotty 2"? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, wdrag said: A possible statistical 3AM reality check. Chance of snow exceeding 1". Brown starts 80%. I think where its brown, is also a very good chance of 2+. The rest is yours to debate. It should snow an inch into Fairfield Litchfield counties. maybe spotty 2"? Thank you Walt. Do you have any thoughts on where the NWS is getting their aggressive forecast from? Are they banking on high ratios or expect over performance? They must see something to issue the numbers they did. Just checked again and northeast NJ in the teal section of your map is still showing a forecast of 2-3 inches, as one example. Mainly just curious if you have a read on this. Thanks for your time as always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Radar is looking gd, the precip shield is moving ne into the area as we speak,somehow holding together with some localized heavier bands. Usually there is a gd band that develops on the northern fringe,trying to see where the movement stops and sits. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Thank you Walt. Do you have any thoughts on where the NWS is getting their aggressive forecast from? Are they banking on high ratios or expect over performance? They must see something to issue the numbers they did. Just checked again and northeast NJ in the teal section of your map is still showing a forecast of 2-3 inches, as one example. Mainly just curious if you have a read on this. Thanks for your time as always! Well, I haven't read their AFD's - no time since I have my own private group that once/day at 530A. Their AFD should haver some insight. I'll check now. Attaching the first reports of 1+. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 13 minutes ago, wdrag said: A possible statistical 3AM reality check. Chance of snow exceeding 1". Brown starts 80%. I think where its brown, is also a very good chance of 2+. The rest is yours to debate. It should snow an inch into Fairfield Litchfield counties. maybe spotty 2"? I'm very close to the Brown 80% area, maybe just a few miles northeast of there lol, so let's say, 78% zone? I guess 2" is a good number for me also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: For dca. Bwi, looks great down there, but draw a line and that’s south/central Jersey. why is NJ so damn long? Sometimes I wish Long Island was east of Atlantic City lol, especially with storms like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: why is NJ so damn long? Sometimes I wish Long Island was east of Atlantic City lol, especially with storms like this. I think we all get a +1 bust..2 to 3 inches isnt really out of play neither. For as much the model keeps printing dry,lets see what the next hour or so brings. Virga or flakes?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 NJ state of emergency!? WTH 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I get the logic. They just lose their implication of seriousness if they are issued too often. For some storms, they are used to open the doors for federal disaster aid. This is not a disaster. It's a light snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, MANDA said: NJ state of emergency!? WTH They have a difficult time targeting one area since people commutes 50 miles from a adverse zone to a safer zone so the whole state. There's no doubt in mind souther nNJ is going to have a nice snowstorm today of potential 6-7"... bigger flakes, a little ocean instability contribution below 850 MB (a bit of ocean effect may get up to Monmouth Cty and s shore LI) and occasional banding. I could see banding up to between I78-I80, especially near 3PM when the nw upper level flow ij. NYS impinges on NJ way flow above 850 MB forcing convergence in the 800-600MB layer that is saturated. We'll see what happens. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 flurries down in Mt Olive NJ... wont be long. Could be a slight break for an hour 2 around 9AM near I80 but it will refire. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Very light snow starting to fall now. 30/20 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 It’s coming… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Declaring a State of Emergency is a effort to ensure funding quickly if it’s needed 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Looking like a mini version of 2 5 2010. Enjoy SNJ southward 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Declaring a State of Emergency is a effort to ensure funding quickly if it’s needed Also to give all the state workers PTO and overtime opportunities 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 moderate snow 1/2mile through a fair amount of the Baltimore area now, and widespread 1-2 mi northern PA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Snow is flying and sticking pretty quickly down in the Mid Atlantic states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Nothing yet. 22F/16 Dew. School is in session. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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