TJW014 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I don't know if they have some sort of elevation that's relatively higher than the surrounding area that helps wring out more snow or what, or they've got a defective ruler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 9 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: The snow maps will be a piece of it if I ever finish them. The rest is subjective since those statistics do not exist. Is there a snowfall measuring station in Mt Sinai? I remember there was at one time, it would be interesting to see what its long term snowfall average is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 33 minutes ago, TJW014 said: They're banking on high ratios from wet bulbing (14:1-17:1, possibly up to 20:1) to get what they are calling for. Don't think mixing will be an issue for Coastal Monmouth, so that shouldn't cut back anything for you. LBI and coastal areas south have a better chance at mixing/rain I don't know what his reasoning is, but Lee Goldberg has the mix line all the way up to southern Monmouth County. He said the best snowfall will be in inland Monmouth and Ocean counties about 5-10 miles away from the ocean as well as Middlesex County. He said within a mile or two of the ocean in those counties may only see 1-2 inches of snow while 5-10 miles inland of there could see up to 6 inches of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just got home. Was surprised we got .1 -.2" of snow here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 24 minutes ago, Irish said: You can't make this stuff up. I'm in Old Bridge with a WWA, 2 minutes north of Manalapan, 5 minutes north of Englishtown, and 15 minutes north of Freehold, which all have WSW. Middlesex, Somerset, Hunterdon, and Morris, at a minimum, need to be split in half, like so many other counties in the NWS CWA system already have been. If they can split tiny Essex and Union, surely they can do these - that would likely put you in a warning as the areas on both sides of the border are forecast to get 3-7"... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Just got home. Was surprised we got .1 -.2" of snow here today. So did Wantage. Meso models had it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, wdrag said: So did Wantage. Meso models had it any reports from the Poconos, Walt? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I don't know what his reasoning is, but Lee Goldberg has the mix line all the way up to southern Monmouth County. He said the best snowfall will be in inland Monmouth and Ocean counties about 5-10 miles away from the ocean as well as Middlesex County. He said within a mile or two of the ocean in those counties may only see 1-2 inches of snow while 5-10 miles inland of there could see up to 6 inches of snow. State offices off tomorrow and Rutgers online... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmansascientist Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/16/2024 at 9:13 AM, donsutherland1 said: That's actually 716 days. It will likely reach 717 days today, as I doubt we'll reach 2" daily snowfall today. It will be a close call, though. 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Here's the 2" record (through today): Weird, I was tracking this on a local database and I thought the old record was from 3-15-1900 - 2-16-1902. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, batmansascientist said: Weird, I was tracking this on a local database and I thought the old record was from 3-15-1900 - 2-16-1902. Was that for Central Park or another location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Where are they getting these forecasts from. Models don't show more than 3" across the entire area. I would go with 1-3" area wide with local spots further south at 2-4" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Where are they getting these forecasts from. Models don't show more than 3" across the entire area. I would go with 1-3" area wide with local spots further south at 2-4" The wettest model is around .15" so we'd need 20:1 to get to 3 so its doable but with the confluence/dry air there's high bust potential. So many schools are canceling or doing early dismissals, would be weird if kids left school early for a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Where are they getting these forecasts from. Models don't show more than 3" across the entire area. I would go with 1-3" area wide with local spots further south at 2-4" Yeah that’s had me scratching my head. 4-6 inch WSW for me, but nothing is showing that. Must be betting on high ratio snowfall? Idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 18z Euro has run with 1–2” across the area and more down south across central/southern NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Byrdhousebv Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said: Yeah that’s had me scratching my head. 4-6 inch WSW for me, but nothing is showing that. Must be betting on high ratio snowfall? Idk. "Ours is not to reason why........" At least so while your in the hit zone!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 They closed all the schools in Philly for tomorrow on account of the impending storm down there. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 34 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The wettest model is around .15" so we'd need 20:1 to get to 3 so its doable but with the confluence/dry air there's high bust potential. So many schools are canceling or doing early dismissals, would be weird if kids left school early for a dusting It comes down to lawsuits. That's the gist of it. Friends and family in my generation always ask why school is dismissed or cancelled for seemingly benign weather events. It's always about liability, and the general trend to be more cautious. Not necessarily a bad thing, except for those who need to make last minute arrangements for childcare. Times change. It will be interesting to see whether the bullish forecasts by NWS verify. They have the tools and expertise, so who am I to doubt them. I respect the risk evaluation system they have created, similarly to that of the Coast Guard. Human life is valued and more heavily weighted in these equations. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 It comes down to lawsuits. That's the gist of it. Friends and family in my generation always ask why school is dismissed or cancelled for seemingly benign weather events. It's always about liability, and the general trend to be more cautious. Not necessarily a bad thing, except for those who need to make last minute arrangements for childcare. Times change. It will be interesting to see whether the bullish forecasts by NWS verify. They have the tools and expertise, so who am I to doubt them. I respect the risk evaluation system they have created, similarly to that of the Coast Guard. Human life is valued and more heavily weighted in these equations. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 South shore of LI is just outside “the zone” all we need is a few miles for south shore to get in on the 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The state (PA) is announcing restrictions on virtually all of the highways south of I80 to exclude most trucks and all school buses. The school districts are now virtually all closing for tomorrow. Interesting to see how this decision process is playing out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 New York City, Newark, and nearby areas remain in line for 1"-3" of snow. Philadelphia and a swath of central New Jersey will likely see 3"-5" with some locally higher amounts of up to 6". The central and northern Hudson Valley will see a coating to an inch of snow. EPS and NBE Numbers: WPC Snowfall Probability Maps: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 For those who are interested in water temperatures in the near coastal zone, I have 1st hand Data from this morning. I responded to a commercial vessel out or barnegat that was having steering issues and wanted a simple escort back through the Inlet on a strong ebb tide this morning. Surface bay water was a chilly 33.5 degrees. I met the vessel around 6 miles off and had a water temp of 41. Buoy 44091 was hovering around 44.5 (14 miles off.) The vessel was returning from 65 miles off, inside of the Lindenkol Canyon and had 54. These temps remind me of 2015/2016, before our epic freeze. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 12 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: South shore of LI is just outside “the zone” all we need is a few miles for south shore to get in on the 3-6 BEC from Brightwaters Deli on me if we can pull it off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Rmine1 said: BEC from Brightwaters Deli on me if we can pull it off Never been to that deli but I’ve passed it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 35 minutes ago, dseagull said: It comes down to lawsuits. That's the gist of it. Friends and family in my generation always ask why school is dismissed or cancelled for seemingly benign weather events. It's always about liability, and the general trend to be more cautious. Not necessarily a bad thing, except for those who need to make last minute arrangements for childcare. Times change. It will be interesting to see whether the bullish forecasts by NWS verify. They have the tools and expertise, so who am I to doubt them. I respect the risk evaluation system they have created, similarly to that of the Coast Guard. Human life is valued and more heavily weighted in these equations. Good post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 57 minutes ago, Tatamy said: They closed all the schools in Philly for tomorrow on account of the impending storm down there. Wtf serious ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, MJO812 said: Wtf serious ? Yea here in Monmouth county too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Hrrr change from 18z. Arrives at 6 am ends by 4 outside south nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Yea here in Monmouth county too Insane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Upton will most likely reduce numbers for NYC This is looking like a dusting to 2 inches unless the inverted trough shifts further north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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