BoulderWX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 4-6 for Morristown hahahahhahah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 The one time I feel good about being on the south shore of long island 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Well, that was a big step for Mt. Holly to take. I've always wondered if they are coerced to err on the side of caution for school-day forecasts, figuring that they would rather subtract from projected totals, rather than have superintendents get blindsided while kids are in school. On the other hand, 3 inches on the roads or 6 inches on the roads doesn't make a huge difference for bussing kids these days.... Confidence in the forecast can't be too high in the setup. Heck, it even has me second guessing my hunting trip 20 miles West in Pemberton, away from my home on the coast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: The one time I feel good about being on the south shore of long island Don’t forget summer 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Haha NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 NAM gon’ NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Advisory for 2 to 4..30:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 26 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: The one time I feel good about being on the south shore of long island Doesn’t look like it’s actually going to make much of a difference right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Snow hole. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 31 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: The one time I feel good about being on the south shore of long island Same here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 46 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: The one time I feel good about being on the south shore of long island Still going to need a 40-50 mile northward shift in the banding which is doable but not being depicted by any model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 48 minutes ago, dseagull said: Well, that was a big step for Mt. Holly to take. I've always wondered if they are coerced to err on the side of caution for school-day forecasts, figuring that they would rather subtract from projected totals, rather than have superintendents get blindsided while kids are in school. On the other hand, 3 inches on the roads or 6 inches on the roads doesn't make a huge difference for bussing kids these days.... Confidence in the forecast can't be too high in the setup. Heck, it even has me second guessing my hunting trip 20 miles West in Pemberton, away from my home on the coast. Yea my personal opinion, shared by many met forecasts I've seen here and elsewhere, is that it's really unlikely to get more than 3" N of 78 and especially N of 80. Lee Goldberg, for example, has N of 78 only getting 1-3", but does have 3-6" south of 78. That's why I'll stick with my forecast of 3.3" for my house in Metuchen. The higher amounts south of 78, especially near 195 and south of there make sense assuming that's where the best inverted trough banding sets up. Would love to be wrong and get 4"+ and have everyone north of 78 joining in in the fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 The "futurecast" Lee Goldberg just showed is convulated mess..nothing sustained..just kinda showery.. 3" ? no way 1" ? maybe 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: Yea my personal opinion, shared by many met forecasts I've seen here and elsewhere, is that it's really unlikely to get more than 3" N of 78 and especially N of 80. Lee Goldberg, for example, has N of 78 only getting 1-3", but does have 3-6" south of 78. That's why I'll stick with my forecast of 3.3" for my house in Metuchen. The higher amounts south of 78, especially near 195 and south of there make sense assuming that's where the best inverted trough banding sets up. Would love to be wrong and get 4"+ and have everyone north of 78 joining in in the fun. At the rate the models are going I think 1-2” might be a good number for areas along 78. If anything the models are telling us that forecasted amounts above that to the north of 78 are looking more and more likely to bust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I'll take my half inch and be happy (no, not really). At least it'll help keep the surface white for another day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 The ARW models actually bring the 2" line North of 287 with a 10:1 ratio. I guess if that verified 2-4" could be realized. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 Thanks Don on HREF, I'm uncomfortable with the 330PM NWS reaching top end of all the ranges... however we will have some decent dendrites at times per multimodel check of omega in the DGZ at Sparta. I don't rate it excellent for nw NJ but anyway...there will be banding for s LI, central and s NJ. I had 0.1" in Wantage with my Noonish light snow. Max T 26.6..so we will have a slippery problem tomorrow and a good refreshing new snow cover, whatever it is. NWS snow probs for over an inch in NYC are about 85%. I'm adding the new probs for 2+. Note... if we get lucky, CP will end this record streak of no 2" in a day, on 1/19/24. Someone may want to refresh that record for us. Again..this thread will work for OBS as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 GFS pretty widespread 2-3" for almost all in the forum, a little more in coastal C NJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Northof78 said: GFS pretty widespread 2-3" for almost all in the forum, a little more in coastal C NJ It's now wetter than the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I think they're way too bullish for my area in coastal Monmouth co 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, wdrag said: Thanks Don on HREF, I'm uncomfortable with the 330PM NWS reaching top end of all the ranges... however we will have some decent dendrites at times per multimodel check of omega in the DGZ at Sparta. I don't rate it excellent for nw NJ but anyway...there will be banding for s LI, central and s NJ. I had 0.1" in Wantage with my Noonish light snow. Max T 26.6..so we will have a slippery problem tomorrow and a good refreshing new snow cover, whatever it is. NWS snow probs for over an inch in NYC are about 85%. I'm adding the new probs for 2+. Note... if we get lucky, CP will end this record streak of no 2" in a day, on 1/19/24. Someone may want to refresh that record for us. Again..this thread will work for OBS as well. Here's the 2" record (through today): 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, Big Jims Videos said: I'm doing a story tonight on the difficult decision making process behind the scenes which superintendents face. Looks like we picked the right district, focusing on Jackson Township. Kinda surprised to see a warning here actually. I don't see how with this current forecast schools would even attempt to open as the super told me they are moving away from early dismissals. That never made sense to me, let's send the kids home in the worst conditions. I actually taught there 30 years ago or so. I asked the director, what about snow? he said they cancel on the 7th flake. Sure enough a storm was forecast in Feb and they canceled. Never saw a flake. At that time almost all of the kids were bussed, it was still semi-rural; wear orange if you cut school, the kids were told.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: I am unaware of any supporting data for that conclusion. your snowfall maps + elevation and geographical location on the north shore, colder temperatures and duration of snowcover for those locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Someone joked the other day that Freehold would manage to get the jackpot..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, kingbaus said: I think they're way too bullish for my area in coastal Monmouth co They're banking on high ratios from wet bulbing (14:1-17:1, possibly up to 20:1) to get what they are calling for. Don't think mixing will be an issue for Coastal Monmouth, so that shouldn't cut back anything for you. LBI and coastal areas south have a better chance at mixing/rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Here's the 2" record (through today): Wow and thank you very much Don! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 its the models vs the mets...thats why they get paid the $$$. Lets see what happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, Rmine1 said: Don’t forget summer Nah heat is more fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 16 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Someone joked the other day that Freehold would manage to get the jackpot..... You can't make this stuff up. I'm in Old Bridge with a WWA, 2 minutes north of Manalapan, 5 minutes north of Englishtown, and 15 minutes north of Freehold, which all have WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: your snowfall maps + elevation and geographical location on the north shore, colder temperatures and duration of snowcover for those locations. The snow maps will be a piece of it if I ever finish them. The rest is subjective since those statistics do not exist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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