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Snow Friday 1/19/24: is it a period of light snow (less than 2"), or is there a chance of a 5" swath in part of the NYC subforum? Event OBS.


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29 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I thought the GEFS looked better than 12z a bit more precip.

And the 18Z GFS Op is juicy (3-6" generally), but the 12Z was only 1-2" so we're seeing the high uncertainty express itself.  Might be pretty late in the game that we get a good handle on this one (think the main energy comes ashore from the Pacific Weds night).  

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Im not the CMC biggest fan, but it never let go of this system tonight although it was too strong and too far inland. It never ceases to amaze me how wonky the GFS is when there a potential coastal event here thats not rain. I am still not completely sold on this one though. I know the "indices" are changing, but that PV could easily squash this thing and push it offshore like the GFS. 

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It's looking very cold for Saturday mid-day there, temps in low 20s or even high teens. Could be 5-10 F by Sunday morning, below zero in outlying n/w forum areas.

As to snowfall, I wouldn't want to guess with the spread in guidance now, looks like about 40% chance of a 0.5 - 2" event, 40% 3-5" and 20% 5+ ... if low just races east from 35N only trough to wNY can produce any snow, if low takes a bit longer to head east, 3-5" and if models just decide to correct north, 10" potential. 

 

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

72207702-b790-43ac-a84d-267b146c4e9f.gif

Need to see a few more of these on other guidance as well. Yes, I have seen the ensembles and see some are closer but the large majority keeps the main low well east. Will we see a trend closer? 

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1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said:

Need to see a few more of these on other guidance as well. Yes, I have seen the ensembles and see some are closer but the large majority keeps the main low well east. Will we see a trend closer? 

Look at the SREF LOL

65a684b67f13e.png

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Look at the SREF LOL

65a684b67f13e.png

Yes I saw. Another problem is there is low placement issues along the potential Inverted trough. You can see that on the 84 hr nam. There is a lot of energy coming in around the PV so could be a reflection of that. 

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