Allsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Nam is only correct when it shows no snow for us… sigh 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Shocking. So all the models are now around .15-.2" liquid. 2 to 3 with ratios more south. Nam was off its rocker yesterday Time to take it behind the horse barn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3k Nam is also drier General 1-3 inches Usually these troughs end up further north but not the case here with the confluence and no phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nam is only correct when it shows no snow for us… sigh Anytime it's alone is a big red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nam is only correct when it shows no snow for us… sigh It's incorrect when it's alone unless it shows the same thing for 3 or 4 runs which it did not or another model trends toward it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 We will have to wait for our big storm. I've seen these surprise small swaths enough times not to write it off until it's over. Going to be a great time bird hunting with my dog in Pemberton, NJ tomorrow. Nothing better than watching birds flush into falling snow. Hope I don't drive home to find it raining or mixing on barnegat bay. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Im kinda surprized nobody is even talking the possibility of snow today,tech its snowing rn just not hitting the ground yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 36 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nam is only correct when it shows no snow for us… sigh Yup and people fall for it time and time again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Turning into a non event/bust quickly. Theme of the last 2 years lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, nycsnow said: Turning into a non event/bust quickly. Theme of the last 2 years lol Why is it a bust? It was 1 to 3 all along. Now if we only get a dusting or flurries tomorrow I'd say its a bust. Upton is being conservative and that's wise at the moment. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Why is it a bust? It was 1 to 3 all along. Now if we only get a dusting or flurries tomorrow I'd say its a bust. Upton is being conservative and that's wise at the moment. I don’t think there’s gonna be much accumulation if the rates are as light as models are starting to show. Everything’s covered in salt, it’s during the day, light rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said: Im kinda surprized nobody is even talking the possibility of snow today,tech its snowing rn just not hitting the ground yet. my iphone screen shows snowflakes falling -lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: I don’t think there’s gonna be much accumulation if the rates are as light as models are starting to show. Everything’s covered in salt, it’s during the day, light rates im sure you will be saying beautiful light snow tomorrow everything covered. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said: im sure you will be saying beautiful light snow tomorrow everything covered. I hope so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, nycsnow said: I don’t think there’s gonna be much accumulation if the rates are as light as models are starting to show. Everything’s covered in salt, it’s during the day, light rates Uh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Why is it a bust? It was 1 to 3 all along. Now if we only get a dusting or flurries tomorrow I'd say its a bust. Upton is being conservative and that's wise at the moment. Also, the "big winners" might only get a couple more inches of snow. Looks like it will snow tomorrow and cover more than just cold surfaces and even stick around for a few days. I'd call that a win this season. Also, inverted troughs are biatches to forecast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Rgem 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said: im sure you will be saying beautiful light snow tomorrow everything covered. time to start comparing radar returns with mesoscale model runs and actual surface reports to get an idea about tomorrow here....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, Metasequoia said: Also, the "big winners" might only get a couple more inches of snow. Looks like it will snow tomorrow and cover more than just cold surfaces and even stick around for a few days. I'd call that a win this season. Also, inverted troughs are biatches to forecast. These troughs sometimes hit places that were not modeled. Have to watch that tomorrow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, Metasequoia said: Also, the "big winners" might only get a couple more inches of snow. Looks like it will snow tomorrow and cover more than just cold surfaces and even stick around for a few days. I'd call that a win this season. Also, inverted troughs are biatches to forecast. All the models have a relative skunk zone over the metro with more to the south and more to the northwest but who knows at this point. Probably won't be uniform amounts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: my iphone screen shows snowflakes falling -lol Yeah the radar is actually looking better too. Some gd lift around the area also the disturbance still has to pass thru. Might be in for a surprize later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 14 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: im sure you will be saying beautiful light snow tomorrow everything covered. we all will. even in a good winter, seeing a few inches of snow fall during the day is an experience to treasure. I even like it when the sun comes out afterwards, it makes the snow sparkle like diamonds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Mt Holly bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Recent NBM, provided by NE folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I looked for a sweet spot based on your detailed snowfall maps of the region and I'd say for Nassau County it's near Muttowntown and for Suffolk County (and Long Island in general), it's somewhere between Miller Place and Mt Sinai. We have snowfall measuring stations there I believe? I am unaware of any supporting data for that conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I have snowpack and will be getting more snow, huge win. IDGAF how much. Good luck guys, this sure beats omega level cutters with 4 QPF rain to Montreal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 41 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Why is it a bust? It was 1 to 3 all along. Now if we only get a dusting or flurries tomorrow I'd say its a bust. Upton is being conservative and that's wise at the moment. this is what I meant. insanity enjoy the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 48 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Why is it a bust? It was 1 to 3 all along. Now if we only get a dusting or flurries tomorrow I'd say its a bust. Upton is being conservative and that's wise at the moment. When I hear the local forecasters saying " COULD be 1 or 2 inches" I know not to pay any more attention to it and hope for another event another day, which hopefully won't be 3-5 years from now LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Gfs following suite not even 2 inches for nyc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: When I hear the local forecasters saying " COULD be 1 or 2 inches" I know not to pay any more attention to it and hope for another event another day, which hopefully won't be 3-5 years from now LOL. It’s not even an advisory level event it’s 1-2 maybe at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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