LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: I’ll be in Long Beach for this one. For once that might be a good thing. I look forward to our ocean effect snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Biggest thing to remember with this storm is ratios will be high. So it doesn’t take much qpf to drop a couple inches of fluff. It’s been a while since we have had an event like this. and during the day which is fun to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: 96-99 was insanely bad...that said, 96-97 was a great winter for areas say north of the PA/NY border, we simply got very unlucky with a few setups here, 97-98 98-99 were horrendous though...remember that the 5 boroughs had no Winter Storm Watch issued at all from late March 1996 til 12/28/00....the January 2000 event would have had one issued but due to the model issues the area went straight to a warning...to go that long where at 24-48 hours no storm was going to obviously produce 6 inches or more of snow or 0.25 inches of ice is an impressive run I still say late 80s to early 90s was worse than the late 90s, because we already had great winters in 93-94 and 95-96 so we had that to look back to.... looking back from the late 80s was only mediocrity during the early to mid 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 hours ago, WIN said: What we've seen the last 2 years is part of what goes into long term averages. under 10" of snow in back to back winters has never happened before in NYC and only once at JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 hours ago, weatherpruf said: That is amazingly good news! You will also see them on the wrecks offshore all summer and fall...with roe in them, so they must be spawning there. The downturn has to do mostly with commercial overfishing; they have tried to blame sea robins ( I am not making that up ) but honestly, you don't see them like you used to either. I last fished Barnegat in 96 near the power plant, where the flounder were in the creek ( nuclear flounder! ). But we always had much better fishing in Raritan. All we have in the bay now is stripers. anything having to do with overfishing has to do with humans, you see this problem around the world, not just here. blaming sea robins is lol worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: can't tell you how many times I've seen NYC in the bullseye at 60 hours out for it to hit CT I think it was Feb 2009 when we saw an inverted trough drop a bunch of snow in S NJ to about Philly.... 8 inches if I remember correctly? That storm was originally progged to be a cutter. We didn't do so badly up here either, around 4" A nice average snowfall winter with a very cold January.... we don't get these much anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 21z rap @SBUWX23 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 hours ago, weatherpruf said: I only remember one of these hitting near me, March 2013, and it was melting as fast as it was accumulating. Around 4-5 inches. thats the thing with March and April, if it's not a big storm, it's hard to accumulate in urban areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: anything having to do with overfishing has to do with humans, you see this problem around the world, not just here. blaming sea robins is lol worthy. There’s so so so much more too it then that. The bunker population is enormous now feeding all the sharks (and I have caught plenty of southern species) it’s more about the rise in water temps. Winter flounder and lobsters are cold water species, they are moving north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 If this wasn't already posted, here's the 5PM deterministic NWS collaborated snowfall forecast that went into their mid Wednesday afternoon 1/17/24 products, mostly for Fri 1/19/24. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 wonder when they're gonna give mid/lower westchester the advisory... if we had one for yesterdays storm we should for sure have one for friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: wonder when they're gonna give mid/lower westchester the advisory... if we had one for yesterdays storm we should for sure have one for friday If they're only expecting 1 or 2" they may not. Probably hold off til tomorrow since it doesn't start til Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: If they're only expecting 1 or 2" they may not. Probably hold off til tomorrow since it doesn't start til Friday true, this does seem to have potential to hit 3-4 in westchester per the rap. i really enjoy when they put the "winter weather expected, avoid travel" signs up coming from albany, that is a foreign concept to me, ESPECIALLY when the snowfall is under 8" lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I still say late 80s to early 90s was worse than the late 90s, because we already had great winters in 93-94 and 95-96 so we had that to look back to.... looking back from the late 80s was only mediocrity during the early to mid 80s. Had some blockbuster events though....the Jan 82 storm that brought the DC flight down into the Potomac, the April 82 blizzard, followed by the Feb 83 blockbuster....then nothing til Jan 87. That was it for the whole decade, really... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: anything having to do with overfishing has to do with humans, you see this problem around the world, not just here. blaming sea robins is lol worthy. The seafood industry has been trying to promote sea robins for awhile now. It hasn't worked. They are good eating, for the little meat you get from them. Besides, I have a soft spot for a fish that talks back to you....urp urp.... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 Spotchecked the 18z/17 GFS and NAM OP cycles for omega in dendrite growth zone (DGZ). Both models offer more than what I saw for the 16th event. I think there is legitimate hope for more than 10 to 1 ratios for whatever qpf occurs. Not saying an inch an hour but I think we can get some 3/4S- with bigger flakes than the 16th. Ensembles: 15z/17 SREF continues pretty heavy, probably linked to the 12z NAM. Weaker future NAM cycles would probably result in a lower SREF outcome. The CMCE has decreased since the 00z/17. cycle, however it is highest on its snowfall compared to the previously discussed lower biased GEFS/EPS. One reason, the CMCE attempts an 850MB circulation s of LI whereas the EPS/GEFS wash it out in the 00z/20 snapshot that I reviewed. I think we're going to need more of a CMCE 850 MB circulation solution to get some of the mesoscale model amounts and the 19z/17 NBM values as well. Attached the 19z/17 NBM as another fwiw. At least no sleet. Just a small chc of rain mix along parts of the LI/NJ oasts. Cant wishcast it...just use a balanced realistic approach in light of the dynamics involved. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 14 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: wonder when they're gonna give mid/lower westchester the advisory... if we had one for yesterdays storm we should for sure have one for friday yesterday had known ice involved? That could be a difference. NWS trigger for advisory I think is higher than 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, wdrag said: yesterday had known ice involved? That could be a difference. NWS trigger for advisory I think is higher than 1-3". ah yes, that makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Had some blockbuster events though....the Jan 82 storm that brought the DC flight down into the Potomac, the April 82 blizzard, followed by the Feb 83 blockbuster....then nothing til Jan 87. That was it for the whole decade, really... Whoever said earlier that at least in the 80s you could count on at least a few 4-6” events each year, I agree. In grade school we seemed to get precisely one snow day a year from them. Seemed like the very clippers that for the last two decades mean white rain around here were our go-to for a few 4-6 inchers a year back the . Everyone who was around back then remembers ‘Alberta Clipper’ right? That’s what almost all of them seemed to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: There’s so so so much more too it then that. The bunker population is enormous now feeding all the sharks (and I have caught plenty of southern species) it’s more about the rise in water temps. Winter flounder and lobsters are cold water species, they are moving north. Flounder are no mystery. They are overfished. Lobsters are definitely moving north. Interesting story, after the April 82 freak blizzard, the flounder in the bay migrated into the Raritan River, looking for warmer water; spring sun can warm shallow waters faster. Seen a few April snows, but nothing like that one. Suspect most here are too young to have seen it. Here's hoping we see something Friday; you guys have gotten my hopes up too much lately.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, wdrag said: yesterday had known ice involved? That could be a difference. NWS trigger for advisory I think is higher than 1-3". That ice was worse than I expected and I'm still chopping out. It also cracked my windshield. I had to dig out my scrapers, I didn't use them last year. I did nothing to the windshield, it had a tiny crack but was cased in ice. I turned the defrost on and went inside. It was cracking further driving my daughter to work, you could hear it. Went from an inch to clear across the windshield. Gonna cost me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The seafood industry has been trying to promote sea robins for awhile now. It hasn't worked. They are good eating, for the little meat you get from them. Besides, I have a soft spot for a fish that talks back to you....urp urp....Sea robin is delicious. Had some on my last visit to FL. Fried with a coconut batter. Easily top 3 fish meal I've eaten. They're related to lionfish, which is also very good eating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Off topic but best fish I ever tasted was black cod miso. Where can we catch those lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 On topic: This ensemble machine only guidance was available to the NWS at press time for their mid afternoon products. (1955z) prob for 2+, and 4+. Axis tends to focus PA/NJ-LI-LI Sound. Unlikely that the axis misses snowfall though amounts can always be questioned. It's the gradient edge where large differences-busts can occur. Event now about 36-40 hours away from beginning. This thread will serve as event OBS-nowcasts, whatever develops. Am off line til Thursday. 646P/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Whoever said earlier that at least in the 80s you could count on at least a few 4-6” events each year, I agree. In grade school we seemed to get precisely one snow day a year from them. Seemed like the very clippers that for the last two decades mean white rain around here were our go-to for a few 4-6 inchers a year back the . Everyone who was around back then remembers ‘Alberta Clipper’ right? That’s what almost all of them seemed to be. I was born in 74. Definitely remember Alberta Clippers in the 80s, I also remember cold and dry then when snow was forecast it was usually snow to rain. I spent many nights looking out my window in the Bronx watching all my beautiful snow get washed away. Always remember driving to my grandmothers house in Ulster County and they would have mountains of snow while NYC had nothing. I’m already dreading next weeks warm up and feeling gypped from these 2 measly storms. Yes I got 12 inches of snow last week but it was gone in 3 days. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 39 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: That ice was worse than I expected and I'm still chopping out. It also cracked my windshield. I had to dig out my scrapers, I didn't use them last year. I did nothing to the windshield, it had a tiny crack but was cased in ice. I turned the defrost on and went inside. It was cracking further driving my daughter to work, you could hear it. Went from an inch to clear across the windshield. Gonna cost me. Very impressive glaze in our area. It was definitely more impactful then the 2 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 18z euro is wetter. Trending towards mesos 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, Allsnow said: 18z euro is wetter. Trending towards mesos 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Still would like to see a bump north too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 20 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Same as last storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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