Snow Friday 1/19/24: is it a period of light snow (less than 2"), or is there a chance of a 5" swath in part of the NYC subforum? Event OBS.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

No, the last 2 winters is not the norm. I grew up in the late 80s and 90s and never experienced back to back winters like this. The snow drought we've been through is unprecedented and now we have people (even a meteorologist mind you) saying that it normally takes a miracle to get snow around here. Lets gain some perspective, what we've seen the last 2 years is not the norm. Even in bad years, we usually still get double digits.

96-99 was insanely bad...that said, 96-97 was a great winter for areas say north of the PA/NY border, we simply got very unlucky with a few setups here, 97-98 98-99 were horrendous though...remember that the 5 boroughs had no Winter Storm Watch issued at all from late March 1996 til 12/28/00....the January 2000 event would have had one issued but due to the model issues the area went straight to a warning...to go that long where at 24-48 hours no storm was going to obviously produce 6 inches or more of snow or 0.25 inches of ice is an impressive run

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

No, the last 2 winters is not the norm. I grew up in the late 80s and 90s and never experienced back to back winters like this. The snow drought we've been through is unprecedented and now we have people (even a meteorologist mind you) saying that it normally takes a miracle to get snow around here. Lets gain some perspective, what we've seen the last 2 years is not the norm. Even in bad years, we usually still get double digits.

Agreed, full on strike out winters are not the norm north of 40 north. Maybe down by Richmond. I think we will make double digits this year though. We all know cpk often under measures so we really can’t use that as a baseline. 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

you folks are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to analyse which model is right and or will trend in whatever direction. IMO this comes down to a now casting event using radar trends starting tomorrow just like what happened during yesterdays storm. Only thing that is certain is the immediate metro will be frozen mainly snow. No model can determine exactly where the lightest and heaviest bands or dry slots will set up exactly.........

With a system this small, it is very difficult to pinpoint.  It seems that for every storm, most are hung up on models as the final word.  I used to enjoy when Jeff Berradelli used to give his post analysis on each storm and unravel each factor, stating that the "Devil Is In the Details", meaning most storms can be forecasted, if you choose which data is significant. In other words, in most instances, the information is there, you just have to find it.    Sometimes the positioning of a high pressure system, a "kicker" way across the continent, 850mb RH.  There are so many factors, but the key is to choose the right ones for each different scenario/storm.  That is not me, but I would suspect there are a chosen few who do see the full picture.  

[Dark Star]

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Agreed, full on strike out winters are not the norm north of 40 north. Maybe down by Richmond. I think we will make double digits this year though. We all know cpk often under measures so we really can’t use that as a baseline. 

NYC Snow:

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

No, the last 2 winters is not the norm. I grew up in the late 80s and 90s and never experienced back to back winters like this. The snow drought we've been through is unprecedented and now we have people (even a meteorologist mind you) saying that it normally takes a miracle to get snow around here. Lets gain some perspective, what we've seen the last 2 years is not the norm. Even in bad years, we usually still get double digits.

Yes the 80s may not have been great but we had solid 3 to 6" events every winter, with most years having multiple events not to mention the smaller nickel and dime types and clippers. So we could count on something. This continued through the early and mid 90s even as we had warmer winters we managed to have storms

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

With a system this small, it is very difficult to pinpoint.  It seems that for every storm, most are hung up on models as the final word.  I used to enjoy when Jeff Berradelli used to give his post analysis on each storm and unravel each factor, stating that the "Devil Is In the Details", meaning most storms can be forecasted, if you choose which data is significant. In other words, in most instances, the information is there, you just have to find it.    Sometimes the positioning of a high pressure system, a "kicker" way across the continent, 850mb RH.  There are so many factors, but the key is to choose the right ones for each different scenario/storm.  That is not me, but I would suspect there are a chosen few who do see the full picture.  

1 to 2 seems like a safe bet (the euro insists on only around a tenth of an inch of liquid). Some places will see a bit more. I suppose if dry air wins out some could see less. I can't see widespread 3 to 5 amounts but a narrow swath 

[WIN]

15 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

No, the last 2 winters is not the norm. I grew up in the late 80s and 90s and never experienced back to back winters like this. The snow drought we've been through is unprecedented and now we have people (even a meteorologist mind you) saying that it normally takes a miracle to get snow around here. Lets gain some perspective, what we've seen the last 2 years is not the norm. Even in bad years, we usually still get double digits.

What we've seen the last 2 years is part of what goes into long term averages.

[MacChump]

2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

I used to be flounder fishing the Shrewsbury River the last week of Feb in the 80s. Sadly they are nearly extirpated and scientists don't think they will recover, but I caught one in LI Sound last fall while porgy fishing.

probably just a fluke

[NEG NAO]

As the precip begins to approach the area later tomorrow start looking at radars and surface reports and try and analyse which models are handling the storm most accurately.........

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

96-99 was insanely bad...that said, 96-97 was a great winter for areas say north of the PA/NY border, we simply got very unlucky with a few setups here, 97-98 98-99 were horrendous though...remember that the 5 boroughs had no Winter Storm Watch issued at all from late March 1996 til 12/28/00....the January 2000 event would have had one issued but due to the model issues the area went straight to a warning...to go that long where at 24-48 hours no storm was going to obviously produce 6 inches or more of snow or 0.25 inches of ice is an impressive run

86 through 90 was another incredibly bad period. That average snowfall was spot on to our past few years. 15.85 average across those years in CPK I believe.

[Stormlover74]

Euro hates this storm for us

[SBUWX23]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro hates this storm for us

doesnt mean its right. its not the gospel model when it comes to smaller details like what we are looking for with this event. 

[Allsnow]

I’m going to ride the nams. They nailed the last event 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

you folks are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to analyse which model is right and or will trend in whatever direction. IMO this comes down to a now casting event using radar trends starting tomorrow just like what happened during yesterdays storm. Only thing that is certain is the immediate metro will be frozen mainly snow. No model can determine exactly where the lightest and heaviest bands or dry slots will set up exactly.........

Although the specific amounts differ on the various models and exact details are not yet available with high confidence e.g., whether an inverted trough will develop and its placement, the overall theme is that this should be a relatively light event (1"-3"/2"-4"-type snowfall) for New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and nearby areas. Ratios should be decent (12:1 to 15:1 generally), so if 0.15"-0.20" of precipitation falls, the region would generally see around 2"-3" of snow (at 15:1). Most of the 12z guidance is in that general ballpark with the NAM being a high outlier (for NYC).

If one adjusts for the output that is based on 10:1 ratios, one would see the following from the 12z guidance for NYC (12:1 to 15:1 ratios):

ECMWF: 1.0"-1.4" (low outlier)
GFS: 1.7"-2.1"
GGEM: 2.5"-3.2"
ICON: 1.6"-2.0"
NAM: 3.5"-4.4" (high outlier)
RGEM: 2.2"-2.7"
UKMET: 1.7"-2.1"

Mean: 2.3"
Standard Deviation: 0.9"

The  1/17/2024 17z NBE shows 3.2" (on 0.16" precipitation or 20:1 ratio). That ratio is at the high-end of what typically occurs given the forecast temperatures. Even then, that solution would fall within the general kind of storm over which there is good model consensus.

The WPC currently snows a minor event on its Day 3 map:

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

doesnt mean its right. its not the gospel model when it comes to smaller details like what we are looking for with this event. 

Its 2 problems the last few years since its recent upgrade is a notable dry bias and also the Op is often over amped with E coast storms from 90-120...in this event since the dynamics are not especially strong its paltry QPF could be right but its sure doing what it so often does on QPF relative to other models

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’m going to ride the nams. They nailed the last event 

Nah too wet

I like the gfs rgem combo around 2 maybe 3"

[SBUWX23]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its 2 problems the last few years since its recent upgrade is a notable dry bias and also the Op is often over amped with E coast storms from 90-120...in this event since the dynamics are not especially strong its paltry QPF could be right but its sure doing what it so often does on QPF relative to other models

Yep, it was too dry with the last event too. I do believe the NAM was more on target and actually had the right idea overall as the even drew closer. I know there were some concerns that models were overdone qpf wife, but we had a good bit of rain out here and the NAM really handled the fact there was gonna be ZR well. Hopefully we can narrow down things on Thursday. 

[Stormlover74]

Mt holly quite bullish

 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, kat5hurricane said:

No, the last 2 winters is not the norm. I grew up in the late 80s and 90s and never experienced back to back winters like this. The snow drought we've been through is unprecedented and now we have people (even a meteorologist mind you) saying that it normally takes a miracle to get snow around here. Lets gain some perspective, what we've seen the last 2 years is not the norm. Even in bad years, we usually still get double digits.

The last 2 years (20.2") rank as the 4th worst 2-year period in NYC snowfall history, so bad, but not unprecedented.  96/97-97/98 was 15.5", 30/31-31/32 was 16.9" and 97/98-98/99 was 18.2".  And this winter, while off to a crappy start, is nowhere near over.  

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

[WestBabylonWeather]

So a 2-3” event on LI. I’ll take it 

[MJO812]

49 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’m going to ride the nams. They nailed the last event 

And sref 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

So a 2-3” event on LI. I’ll take it 

South shore for the win here 

[RU848789]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Mt holly quite bullish

 

I'm actually astounded at this, as the Euro, UK, and GFS generally have 1-2" for this storm (even using Kuchera), while only the NAM, CMC and SREFs have more than 3" anywhere.  Maybe they're going with the ICON...

[SBUWX23]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

South shore for the win here 

youll prob end up better there anyway as its colder up there. 

[SnowGoose69]

The RAP/SREF are showing their usual NW bias at this range...its why I have said if you can pick a spot to be right now I'd go with a Long Branch-Cranbury-Marlboro-South Brunswick line....I think the IVT may set up somewhere between about EWR and TTN in the end based off just past tendency of where these go from 48-60 hours out

[Northof78]

Seems like for the most part the GFS/EURO have been left in the dust with recent storms in terms of being way to supressed/weak. 2-4 days prior to this past storm the fear was light precip and out to sea with little or no coastal, in the end the most snow fell in VT with the metro getting a lot of ice/sleet with tucked in coastal position. 

Ride the NAM/RGEM/S-T models until they throw you off this winter....

[kat5hurricane]

1 hour ago, WIN said:

What we've seen the last 2 years is part of what goes into long term averages.

Yes, as does the great winters of '95-'96 and '10-'11 but I wouldn't call those the norm.

Even in the snow drought of the 80s and 90s, we had less than 10 inches only 2 years out of 20 and these are Central Park measurements where the least snow is usually found in the metro area outside of segments of the south shore.  Multiple snow events at minimum are common just about every year. That has not been the case the last 2 winters. General point, and I'm sorry for derailing this thread, is that NYC doesn't need a miracle to snow unless you're specifying that statement to 10+ inch events.

[SBUWX23]

18z HRRR out through 48 hours looks decent, and yes I am aware of its unreliability beyond 18 hours. 

[The 4 Seasons]

16 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

18z HRRR out through 48 hours looks decent, and yes I am aware of its unreliability beyond 18 hours. 

would be a very solid hit for you guys but yea the 48HRRR is about as reliable as the 60/84hr NAMs

[RU848789]

NWS -Philly isn't the only bullish one, as Mike Masco just came out with his first call and it's pretty bullish, especially from about 10 miles N of 195/276 and southward almost to Delaware Bay, where he has a 4-6" swath from the inverted trough, mainly, as per the tweet, below.