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Snow Friday 1/19/24: is it a period of light snow (less than 2"), or is there a chance of a 5" swath in part of the NYC subforum? Event OBS.


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1 minute ago, Edubbs83 said:


It’s snowing albeit flurries on north shore of LI. Syosset and Melville it’s been flurrying for past hour. Is it doing nothing on south shore?


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Pixie dust flakes. Again maybe something more meaningful can make it north of Monmouth but I’m not encouraged. Radar keeps getting that confluence eaten up look north of that Monmouth band and models shred up what gets north of there and has a dry hole over NYC/LI until later today when it consolidates to the south in the IVT. The dry air/confluence is coming from the NE so west of the city may do better. When you have the ESE lean to the snow coming out of PA like we have today it’s confluence driven and models often show snow when there’s virga. 

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pixie dust flakes. Again maybe something more meaningful can make it north of Monmouth but I’m not encouraged. Radar keeps getting that confluence eaten up look north of that Monmouth band and models shred up what gets north of there and has a dry hole over NYC/LI until later today when it consolidates to the south in the IVT. The dry air/confluence is coming from the NE so west of the city may do better. When you have the ESE lean to the snow coming out of PA like we have today it’s confluence driven and models often show snow when there’s virga. 

Good point about seeing the virga as snow 

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8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pixie dust flakes. Again maybe something more meaningful can make it north of Monmouth but I’m not encouraged. Radar keeps getting that confluence eaten up look north of that Monmouth band and models shred up what gets north of there and has a dry hole over NYC/LI until later today when it consolidates to the south in the IVT. The dry air/confluence is coming from the NE so west of the city may do better. When you have the ESE lean to the snow coming out of PA like we have today it’s confluence driven and models often show snow when there’s virga. 

To a degree that’s what’s happening but unlike 2/2010 for example HPN/SWF/DXR are snowing, this is the usual case of that dry nose pushing through the metro from the NE so they can take 1-2 hours longer to saturate between like 3-8K than areas west or even due north 

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12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Pixie dust flakes. Again maybe something more meaningful can make it north of Monmouth but I’m not encouraged. Radar keeps getting that confluence eaten up look north of that Monmouth band and models shred up what gets north of there and has a dry hole over NYC/LI until later today when it consolidates to the south in the IVT. The dry air/confluence is coming from the NE so west of the city may do better. When you have the ESE lean to the snow coming out of PA like we have today it’s confluence driven and models often show snow when there’s virga. 

This is what we saw (on a much larger scale) on 2/6/2010, which is why I asked if all that snow in the Poconos would make it here because it looks like the dry air is coming from the east and northeast.

 

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

To a degree that’s what’s happening but unlike 2/2010 for example HPN/SWF/DXR are snowing, this is the usual case of that dry nose pushing through the metro from the NE so they can take 1-2 hours longer to saturate between like 3-8K than areas west or even due north 

Yeah its finally shedding the dry air, the radar actually looks better then the spotty precip that was forecasted. Also we still have the actual front to clear and its slowed enough to let everything creep north a bit.

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1 minute ago, TJW014 said:

Big fat flakes coming down moderately now. Wind is definitely kicking up a little. Might be trying to mix at the beach. 

Where are you at again? Toms river?

 

Radar seems to be falling apart here.  Not sure if it will fill back in for awhile. 

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