LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 25 minutes ago, MANDA said: NJ state of emergency!? WTH this is awesome, I wish we had these back in the 80s when we had 1-3 inches of snow without any winds 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Looking like a mini version of 2 5 2010. Enjoy SNJ southward If by mini you mean less than 25% of that, then sure 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Up to 33.4 already. 5 miles inland, 28. The cutoff between 1 inch and 5 inches will be tight. Pros and cons of living on the water as a snow lover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Phl going to do very well with this today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: If by mini you mean less than 25% of that, then sure Way weaker version 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 21 minutes ago, wdrag said: They have a difficult time targeting one area since people commutes 50 miles from a adverse zone to a safer zone so the whole state. There's no doubt in mind souther nNJ is going to have a nice snowstorm today of potential 6-7"... bigger flakes, a little ocean instability contribution below 850 MB (a bit of ocean effect may get up to Monmouth Cty and s shore LI) and occasional banding. I could see banding up to between I78-I80, especially near 3PM when the nw upper level flow ij. NYS impinges on NJ way flow above 850 MB forcing convergence in the 800-600MB layer that is saturated. We'll see what happens. I'd love to see OES on the south shore of LI, it's only happened a few times in my life. We had 1.5" on 2/6/2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Allsnow said: Phl going to do very well with this today Where is the north trend when we needed it Anyway first Winter Storm Warning in years for many places down south. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 18 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Guys please do not. We all have political views, we just don’t bring them here. This place is one of the last refuges on earth to get a break from it. I can't wait until AI is running the entire planet and silly human politics no longer exists. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Allsnow said: Phl going to do very well with this today It’s gonna be close with this dry air and latest modeling has the ivt just south….I think northeast Maryland does better than my location of National Park NJ across from PHL. Fighting the fizzle for now but dp and rh have been dropping as the first round of steady light snow gained a foothold last 35 minutes 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Way weaker version we could still get what we got in that storm (and that was also a daytime storm). we got 1.5" on 2/6/2010 so that's possible again today Staten Island (at least the southern part of it) got up to 6" while NYC only saw a trace lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: we could still get what we got in that storm (and that was also a daytime storm). we got 1.5" on 2/6/2010 so that's possible again today Staten Island (at least the southern part of it) got up to 6" while NYC only saw a trace lol. Yep remember that storm clearly lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep remember that storm clearly lol What a waste of cold air and moisture lol, the GFS kept saying we would get more than that-- meanwhile Toms River (50 miles south of here) got 2 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 34 minutes ago, dseagull said: Murphy administration issues a state of emergency if a kitten sneezes. Ever since the November 2018 storm which caught many off guard as it was underforcast in many areas, they panic every time a snow flake flies. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, WIN said: Ever since the November 2018 storm which caught many off guard as it was underforcast in many areas, they panic every time a snow flake flies. Wasn't that the storm that was supposed to change to rain but never did? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, WIN said: Ever since the November 2018 storm which caught many off guard as it was underforcast in many areas, they panic every time a snow flake flies. Yea, I remember it well. There were a few other events as well. As I posted further up the thread, I understand the logic and how it is designed to open up the doors for emergency aid. However, there are some inadvertent downsides to frequent issuance when used as a means of keeping people off the roads, which is so often the real focus. Either way, my comment was lounge in cheek. Pine Barrens look to be jackpot land. The roads will absolutely be an issue in rural areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Where is the north trend when we needed it Anyway first Winter Storm Warning in years for many places down south. I think the big PAC Jet extension kept the pattern too progressive so the storm went more ENE to our south than NE. Another case of the Pacific pattern leading to less snowfall than usual in recent years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Wasn't that the storm that was supposed to change to rain but never did? I believe so. It changed in NYC as I recall, but way later than expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, WIN said: I believe so. It changed in NYC as I recall, but way later than expected. Yup, lots of problems on the roads. 6.5" I think.... the earliest 6" storm there on record I believe (here we had 8" on November 7, 2012 a week after Sandy, and 14" in Freehold.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think the big PAC Jet extension kept the pattern too progressive so the storm went more ENE to our south than NE. Another case of the Pacific pattern leading to less snowfall than usual in recent years. where does that strong SE ridge go in times like this lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think the big PAC Jet extension kept the pattern too progressive so the storm went more ENE to our south than NE. Another case of the Pacific pattern leading to less snowfall than usual in recent years. it's also a weak storm with a very narrow area of precip correct? A more normal sized storm would easily get heavy snow into our area on that track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 It begins. Instant stickage on the back roads in front of the homestead. Dog isn't happy about canceling hunting, but loves snow nonetheless. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yup, lots of problems on the roads. 6.5" I think.... the earliest 6" storm there on record I believe (here we had 8" on November 7, 2012 a week after Sandy, and 14" in Freehold.) I understand getting blindsided like that, but the problem is that after a while, it becomes like the "boy who cried wolf". Also issuing a state of emergency preemptively should be saved for much bigger, widespread storms. IF a state of emergency is issued in a situation like this it should be limited to the areas under the WSW. Finally, issuing a state for 4 to 6 inches of snow is an overreaction, period! Just MHO. I 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 Tiny flakes Sussex County NJ. Need bigger flakes to get decent snowfall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Surprised nobody posted the updated maps and advisories as the NWS-Philly finally dropped snowfall amounts considerably north of 195/276, dropped the warning for Monmouth and considered dropping the advisories for near/north of 80, but also expanded the warnings well down into SNJ, reflecting the shift in the snow axis the last day or so; NWS-NYC also dropped snowfall amounts some, but did retain their 2-3" advisories. Like many of you, it's odd that it took this long. The AFD from Mt. Holly is below. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... One area of low pressure is tracking eastward across Virginia early this morning, while a stronger coastal low is lifting northeastward off Cape Hatteras. Light snow is breaking out ahead and to the north of the former low and that snow will quickly spread across our region from west to east through 8 AM this morning. While the snow is initially fighting some lower level dry air, and will not begin really picking up in intensity until mid to late morning, travel conditions during the morning commute will become slick, especially on untreated roads. Leave early, or telework if you can. Overall, the forecast looks on track; there is some rain mixing in along portions of the NJ shore and southern Delaware, but that was expected. Areas just inland are all snow at the moment, and temperatures/dewpoints across the area suggest that the cold air in place is as-advertised. Aloft, an initial shortwave bringing vorticity advection with mid- level forcing for the initial batch of snow heading in. This is also supported by some weak lower-level isentropic lift, and aided by diffluence farther aloft from the left-exit region of a strong upper- level jet streak. That shortwave will pass by to our northeast this afternoon, while the two areas of low pressure merge and intensify well offshore. However, another more potent shortwave and vorticity maximum will approach from the west this afternoon, with vorticity and much colder air aloft phasing in from the upper-low over the Great Lakes. As a result, a mid-level low will attempt to close off, off the southern NJ coast this afternoon, after passing across the Delmarva. That will support an inverted trough extending back from the strengthening storm offshore. Frontogenetic forcing and lower- level convergence associated with the low aloft and the surface trough respectively will be the key for focusing steadier and heavier snow today. Since Thursday afternoon, the last couple runs of various model guidance has made a distinct shift south with the axis of heavier snow amounts, focusing the inverted trough extending westward from Friday`s coastal low back closer to the Delaware coast rather than southern NJ. The initial steadier snow may set-up near the urban corridor from Trenton southwest later this morning. Much of the guidance suggests that the steadier snow will focus more on southern NJ into Delaware at it`s peak this afternoon, and linger there longest as the coastal low pulls away, dragging the inverted trough behind it. While higher snow ratios may make up the difference for a bit less liquid equivalent precipitation along the northern edge of the steadier snow, with the southerly shift in the guidance, we had to lower amounts by an inch or two across the northern half of our area. Considered dropping Advisory around Morris and Sussex Co NJ, but given some fairly rough conditions for the evening commute as colder air work in, it can be justified from an impacts standpoint. Did drop the Warning for Monmouth County, as amounts look to fall short of the 6" threshold there. Considered dropping Bucks to an Advisory as well, but amounts are near enough to 5" criteria to let it ride a this point. Meanwhile, farther south along the NJ shore and into the Delmarva, with winds expected to stay more northeasterly (rather than SE as earlier models projected), any initial rain may shift over to snow more quickly with less marine influence. Additionally, the axis of stronger forcing shifted south there as well. Added Kent County (both MD and DE) along with inland Atlantic and Cumberland County NJ to the Winter Storm Warning. Latest snow amounts in the warning area are somewhat marginal for reaching criteria, right around 5". However, given the tendency for higher ratios, the possibility that models are underdoing some mesoscale lifting mechanisms (coastal convergence, low-level convergence along the inverted trough, and mid-level frontogenesis), we expect some localized amounts near or even over 6 inches. Sometimes we expect too much accuracy from the model guidance QPF; it would only take another `surprise` 0.10-0.20 inches to exceed snowfall amounts by a few inches. While the snow may have a tendency to linger into this evening right where the inverted trough sets up, probably near Delaware Bay, forcing aloft will start to quickly diminish and progressively drier air will filter in. Just about all guidance suggests any last bit of snow will push off the coast by 9 PM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 50 minutes ago, TJW014 said: Also to give all the state workers PTO and overtime opportunities I no longer believe the part about a State of Emergency means "automatic" funding. I would assume you eventually have to prove lossess, hardships, spending, etc? Declaring a State of Emergency for every raindrop, etc. is frivolous, irresponsible and has diminished and clouded the term "State of Emergency". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Nothing in Morris County. Expecting a T - 1 but would nice to get an inch to make things white again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 You guys realize it's still going to snow tomorrow for several hours. We aren't going from a signifcant snowfall to no snow at all just from a ceiling of 5 inches to a ceiling of 3. Enjoy the flakes, it will snow againSir, this is a Wendy’s. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 4 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Surprised nobody posted the updated maps and advisories as the NWS-Philly finally dropped snowfall amounts considerably north of 195/276, dropped the warning for Monmouth and considered dropping the advisories for near/north of 80, but also expanded the warnings well down into SNJ, reflecting the shift in the snow axis the last day or so; NWS-NYC also dropped snowfall amounts some, but did retain their 2-3" advisories. Like many of you, it's odd that it took this long. The AFD from Mt. Holly is below. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... One area of low pressure is tracking eastward across Virginia early this morning, while a stronger coastal low is lifting northeastward off Cape Hatteras. Light snow is breaking out ahead and to the north of the former low and that snow will quickly spread across our region from west to east through 8 AM this morning. While the snow is initially fighting some lower level dry air, and will not begin really picking up in intensity until mid to late morning, travel conditions during the morning commute will become slick, especially on untreated roads. Leave early, or telework if you can. Overall, the forecast looks on track; there is some rain mixing in along portions of the NJ shore and southern Delaware, but that was expected. Areas just inland are all snow at the moment, and temperatures/dewpoints across the area suggest that the cold air in place is as-advertised. Aloft, an initial shortwave bringing vorticity advection with mid- level forcing for the initial batch of snow heading in. This is also supported by some weak lower-level isentropic lift, and aided by diffluence farther aloft from the left-exit region of a strong upper- level jet streak. That shortwave will pass by to our northeast this afternoon, while the two areas of low pressure merge and intensify well offshore. However, another more potent shortwave and vorticity maximum will approach from the west this afternoon, with vorticity and much colder air aloft phasing in from the upper-low over the Great Lakes. As a result, a mid-level low will attempt to close off, off the southern NJ coast this afternoon, after passing across the Delmarva. That will support an inverted trough extending back from the strengthening storm offshore. Frontogenetic forcing and lower- level convergence associated with the low aloft and the surface trough respectively will be the key for focusing steadier and heavier snow today. Since Thursday afternoon, the last couple runs of various model guidance has made a distinct shift south with the axis of heavier snow amounts, focusing the inverted trough extending westward from Friday`s coastal low back closer to the Delaware coast rather than southern NJ. The initial steadier snow may set-up near the urban corridor from Trenton southwest later this morning. Much of the guidance suggests that the steadier snow will focus more on southern NJ into Delaware at it`s peak this afternoon, and linger there longest as the coastal low pulls away, dragging the inverted trough behind it. While higher snow ratios may make up the difference for a bit less liquid equivalent precipitation along the northern edge of the steadier snow, with the southerly shift in the guidance, we had to lower amounts by an inch or two across the northern half of our area. Considered dropping Advisory around Morris and Sussex Co NJ, but given some fairly rough conditions for the evening commute as colder air work in, it can be justified from an impacts standpoint. Did drop the Warning for Monmouth County, as amounts look to fall short of the 6" threshold there. Considered dropping Bucks to an Advisory as well, but amounts are near enough to 5" criteria to let it ride a this point. Meanwhile, farther south along the NJ shore and into the Delmarva, with winds expected to stay more northeasterly (rather than SE as earlier models projected), any initial rain may shift over to snow more quickly with less marine influence. Additionally, the axis of stronger forcing shifted south there as well. Added Kent County (both MD and DE) along with inland Atlantic and Cumberland County NJ to the Winter Storm Warning. Latest snow amounts in the warning area are somewhat marginal for reaching criteria, right around 5". However, given the tendency for higher ratios, the possibility that models are underdoing some mesoscale lifting mechanisms (coastal convergence, low-level convergence along the inverted trough, and mid-level frontogenesis), we expect some localized amounts near or even over 6 inches. Sometimes we expect too much accuracy from the model guidance QPF; it would only take another `surprise` 0.10-0.20 inches to exceed snowfall amounts by a few inches. While the snow may have a tendency to linger into this evening right where the inverted trough sets up, probably near Delaware Bay, forcing aloft will start to quickly diminish and progressively drier air will filter in. Just about all guidance suggests any last bit of snow will push off the coast by 9 PM. One of the best discussions I have ever come across... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Coming down at a pretty good clip. My street was brined overnight but still sticking to the road. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Murphy administration issues a state of emergency if a kitten sneezes. When everything’s an emergency, nothing is.. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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