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Snow Friday 1/19/24: is it a period of light snow (less than 2"), or is there a chance of a 5" swath in part of the NYC subforum? Event OBS.


wdrag
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Well, that was a big step for Mt. Holly to take.  I've always wondered if they are coerced to err on the side of caution for school-day forecasts, figuring that they would rather subtract from projected totals, rather than have superintendents get blindsided while kids are in school.  

 

On the other hand, 3 inches on the roads or 6 inches on the roads doesn't make a huge difference for bussing kids these days....

 

Confidence in the forecast can't be too high in the setup.  Heck, it even has me second guessing my hunting trip 20 miles West in Pemberton, away from my home on the coast.   

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26 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

The one time I feel good about being on the south shore of long island 

Doesn’t look like it’s actually going to make much of a difference right now 

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46 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

The one time I feel good about being on the south shore of long island 

Still going to need a 40-50 mile northward shift in the banding which is doable but not being depicted by any model

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48 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Well, that was a big step for Mt. Holly to take.  I've always wondered if they are coerced to err on the side of caution for school-day forecasts, figuring that they would rather subtract from projected totals, rather than have superintendents get blindsided while kids are in school.  

 

On the other hand, 3 inches on the roads or 6 inches on the roads doesn't make a huge difference for bussing kids these days....

 

Confidence in the forecast can't be too high in the setup.  Heck, it even has me second guessing my hunting trip 20 miles West in Pemberton, away from my home on the coast.   

Yea my personal opinion, shared by many met forecasts I've seen here and elsewhere, is that it's really unlikely to get more than 3" N of 78 and especially N of 80. Lee Goldberg, for example, has N of 78 only getting 1-3", but does have 3-6" south of 78. That's why I'll stick with my forecast of 3.3" for my house in Metuchen. The higher amounts south of 78, especially near 195 and south of there make sense assuming that's where the best inverted trough banding sets up.  Would  love to be wrong and get 4"+ and have everyone north of 78 joining in in the fun.  

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1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Yea my personal opinion, shared by many met forecasts I've seen here and elsewhere, is that it's really unlikely to get more than 3" N of 78 and especially N of 80. Lee Goldberg, for example, has N of 78 only getting 1-3", but does have 3-6" south of 78. That's why I'll stick with my forecast of 3.3" for my house in Metuchen. The higher amounts south of 78, especially near 195 and south of there make sense assuming that's where the best inverted trough banding sets up.  Would  love to be wrong and get 4"+ and have everyone north of 78 joining in in the fun.  

At the rate the models are going I think 1-2” might be a good number for areas along 78.  If anything the models are telling us that forecasted amounts above that to the north of 78 are looking more and more likely to bust.  

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Thanks Don on HREF,

 

I'm uncomfortable with the 330PM NWS reaching top end of all the ranges... however we will have some decent dendrites at times per multimodel check of omega in the DGZ at Sparta. I don't rate it excellent for nw NJ but anyway...there will be banding for s LI, central and s NJ. 

 

I had 0.1" in Wantage with my Noonish light snow. Max T 26.6..so we will have a slippery problem tomorrow and a good refreshing new snow cover, whatever it is. NWS snow probs for over an inch in NYC are about 85%.  I'm adding the new probs for 2+.  Note... if we get lucky, CP will end this record streak of no 2" in a day, on 1/19/24. Someone may want to refresh that record for us.

 

Again..this thread will work for OBS as well.

Screen Shot 2024-01-18 at 4.42.19 PM.png

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7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Thanks Don on HREF,

 

I'm uncomfortable with the 330PM NWS reaching top end of all the ranges... however we will have some decent dendrites at times per multimodel check of omega in the DGZ at Sparta. I don't rate it excellent for nw NJ but anyway...there will be banding for s LI, central and s NJ. 

 

I had 0.1" in Wantage with my Noonish light snow. Max T 26.6..so we will have a slippery problem tomorrow and a good refreshing new snow cover, whatever it is. NWS snow probs for over an inch in NYC are about 85%.  I'm adding the new probs for 2+.  Note... if we get lucky, CP will end this record streak of no 2" in a day, on 1/19/24. Someone may want to refresh that record for us.

 

Again..this thread will work for OBS as well.

Screen Shot 2024-01-18 at 4.42.19 PM.png

Here's the 2" record (through today):

image.png.5ea7c7960fc5db1230ad1494ddd32382.png

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1 hour ago, Big Jims Videos said:

I'm doing a story tonight on the difficult decision making process behind the scenes which superintendents face.  Looks like we picked the right district, focusing on Jackson Township.  Kinda surprised to see a warning here actually.  I don't see how with this current forecast schools would even attempt to open as the super told me they are moving away from early dismissals.  That never made sense to me, let's send the kids home in the worst conditions.  

I actually taught there 30 years ago or so. I asked the director, what about snow? he said they cancel on the 7th flake. Sure enough a storm was forecast in Feb and they canceled. Never saw a flake. At that time almost all of the kids were bussed, it was still semi-rural; wear orange if you cut school, the kids were told....

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Just now, kingbaus said:

I think they're way too bullish for my area in coastal Monmouth co 

They're banking on high ratios from wet bulbing (14:1-17:1, possibly up to 20:1) to get what they are calling for. Don't think mixing will be an issue for Coastal Monmouth, so that shouldn't cut back anything for you. LBI and coastal areas south have a better chance at mixing/rain

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16 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Someone joked the other day that Freehold would manage to get the jackpot.....

You can't make this stuff up. I'm in Old Bridge with a WWA, 2 minutes north of Manalapan, 5 minutes north of Englishtown, and 15 minutes north of Freehold, which all have WSW.

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21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

your snowfall maps + elevation and geographical location on the north shore, colder temperatures and duration of snowcover for those locations.

The snow maps will be a piece of it if I ever finish them.  The rest is subjective since those statistics do not exist.

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