nycsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I think they are being generous even saying 3 inches for this. 3 inches is the absolute ceiling for this in our area and if it does happen, I think it’s closer to central NJ. Definitely not widespread here. All of the good lifting and surface convergence is south of us with the inverted trough and the good upper dynamics/diffluence with the jet streak and upper low is also south of here. I believe we are going to have bigger dry air and subsidence issues than people are thinking right now, especially given we are north of the IVT, that is going to probably eat up a decent amount of QPF and it may be a virga fest for awhile at the start Yup. Crazy dc is having a better winter lol we can’t catch a break 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I think 2-3 is a good forecast for nyc. I don’t understand the negativity this morning 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just guessing here, but this is prob a 1-3” storm. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I think 2-3 is a good forecast for nyc. I don’t understand the negativity this morning Cause a week that had such potential is basically turn into a cold non event week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I think 2-3 is a good forecast for nyc. I don’t understand the negativity this morning Because some like to whine. Others like to be overly pessimistic so when they get 2” instead of 1” they get excited. And others just need to keep typing the same shit over and over to show theyre right in some weird mommy and daddy issue from their childhood. but i got a B+ in psych 102 so maybe im way off. 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Cause a week that had such potential is basically turn into a cold non event week Tomorrow still hasn’t happened… and we have timed two winter events inside the coldest week of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Just guessing here, but this is prob a 1-3” storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 35 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I think they are being generous even saying 3 inches for this. 3 inches is the absolute ceiling for this in our area and if it does happen, I think it’s closer to central NJ. Definitely not widespread here. All of the good lifting and surface convergence is south of us with the inverted trough and the good upper dynamics/diffluence with the jet streak and upper low is also south of here. I believe we are going to have bigger dry air and subsidence issues than people are thinking right now, especially given we are north of the IVT, that is going to probably eat up a decent amount of QPF and it may be a virga fest for awhile at the start 6 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Because some like to whine. Others like to be overly pessimistic so when they get 2” instead of 1” they get excited. And others just need to keep typing the same shit over and over to show theyre right in some weird mommy and daddy issue from their childhood. but i got a B+ in psych 102 so maybe im way off. Haha. How many ways can you say you don’t like this event for NYC in one post? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: And here's the map for NWS-Philly, as well as the latest NBM. Still no real support for more than 3" from any of the globals. I hope the NWS and others predicting more than that have it right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: And here's the map for NWS-Philly, as well as the latest NBM. Still no real support for more than 3" from any of the globals. I hope the NWS and others predicting more than that have it right. I think the snow growth and lift is what their banking on which is depicted by some of the short range models 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I think the snow growth and lift is what their banking on which is depicted by some of the short range models This is what Upton has for Staten Island I don’t get it lol their discussion says 2-3 Friday Snow. Total snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow 90 percent. Friday Night Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow in the evening. Lows around 18. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Given how finicky IVTs are I wouldn’t be 100% certain of anything until go time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Given how finicky IVTs are I wouldn’t be 100% certain of anything until go time The models today are going to be interesting to see if it shifts north . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 12 hours ago, weatherpruf said: Had some blockbuster events though....the Jan 82 storm that brought the DC flight down into the Potomac, the April 82 blizzard, followed by the Feb 83 blockbuster....then nothing til Jan 87. That was it for the whole decade, really... Those are the only three storms I remember from the 80s.... the funny thing about the January 1982 storm is I remember the news reports about the flight going down much more than I remember the snow lol. I remember April 1982 very clearly, I woke up at 3 am to see the first flakes fall, so I was keeping up to date with the forecasts for that storm even back then lol, it's my very first clear snowfall memory at the tender age of 8. I even remember we got another snow event at the end of that week in the middle of the day on the 10th. And February 1983 was the first snowstorm I ever experienced on Long Island after our move there the previous November and my first 2 foot storm! January 1987 was our first 6"+ storm since February 1983, so I remember that well too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 19 minutes ago, RU848789 said: And here's the map for NWS-Philly, as well as the latest NBM. Still no real support for more than 3" from any of the globals. I hope the NWS and others predicting more than that have it right. My only comment: The GFS/EC were significantly underdone on qpf the 16th (ice and flake size compromised reported snow amounts, but absolutely no question those globals we're under done for there 16th-the data is in the 16th thread). If it was only the globals that were reliable, then no need for high res, which can be overamped but also can be a bit more reliable. Also on the dry air... eating up snow I80 north... could be, but if it snows a touch north of I80 midday today and near I80 this evening-some modeling has this, then the more dynamic event tomorrow should be able to produce hazardous snowfall of your choice amounts (frozen ground in our NYC subforum and road treatments will be necessary I think in this Drive Carefully event. I think I'll go to work today and not worry. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 52 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Cause a week that had such potential is basically turn into a cold non event week Well in fairness, you had snow on ground for a week. there was a possibility of 0 for a while there last weekend. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Well in fairness, you had snow on ground for a week. there was a possibility of 0 for a while there last weekend. It’s disappointing but we have snow on the ground and will get more tomorrow to freshen it up. Hopefully the NWS is right in it being more aggressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Well in fairness, you had snow on ground for a week. there was a possibility of 0 for a while there last weekend. It does remind me of January 2009, a less cold version of it anyway. Minor snow events but they were on the ground a long time because of the cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Ride it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Also keep in mind as Don said ratios may be above 10-1, so 0.2 of precip may be 2.5” snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 9z sref 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: I generally never used it this far out. I do know its very good on the mean inside 24 usually. I am still surprised to see a mean of 5 and max of 8-10 though I don't recommend using the HREF snowfall totals verbatim. Its snow-liquid ratios tend to be too high. IMHO, Best to take the probability-matched mean QPF and then convert to snowfall using expected snow-liquid ratios (should be generally 15 to 18-1 in this case). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Snow sky 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Its 24/3f here,dark grey skies. Not that it matters but we might see some flurries today. Either way its gonna snow this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I think 1-3” is a good bet. Looking forward to it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: I think 2-3 is a good forecast for nyc. I don’t understand the negativity this morning because NYC metro is still in a snow drought like it or not with only around 2 inches through January 18 and I would bet we will tracking dry slots tomorrow with many areas ending up underperforming and south Jersey getting at least twice as much as the metro........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 40 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Also keep in mind as Don said ratios may be above 10-1, so 0.2 of precip may be 2.5” snow. why is it that we were getting high precip bombs when the weather was warm and now that it's finally cold those high precip storms have stopped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Snow sky I liked the colors this morning but the clouds were too thick to get vivid colors like we've seen before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: because NYC metro is still in a snow drought like it or not with only around 2 inches through January 18 and I would bet we will tracking dry slots tomorrow with many areas ending up underperforming and south Jersey getting at least twice as much as the metro........... Being in a snow drought is more reason to enjoy a nice 2-3 of snow on top of old snow… 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: I think they are being generous even saying 3 inches for this. 3 inches is the absolute ceiling for this in our area and if it does happen, I think it’s closer to central NJ. Definitely not widespread here. All of the good lifting and surface convergence is south of us with the inverted trough and the good upper dynamics/diffluence with the jet streak and upper low is also south of here. I believe we are going to have bigger dry air and subsidence issues than people are thinking right now, especially given we are north of the IVT, that is going to probably eat up a decent amount of QPF and it may be a virga fest for awhile at the start People are thinking this because generally IVT verify north of where they are progged to be This should be better than the last storm, 3" isn't outside the realm of possibility. I would say that 3-4" is probably the most anyone should be hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now