psv88 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Boating season starts in 3 months, days are getting longer, lots to look forward to… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, psv88 said: Boating season starts in 3 months, days are getting longer, lots to look forward to… sun angle is also higher. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, psv88 said: Boating season starts in 3 months, days are getting longer, lots to look forward to… Summer is the worst season Swamp ass Too many people outside Too many cars on the road Watching the Mets lose again 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Summer is the worst season Swamp ass Too many people outside Too many cars on the road Watching the Mets lose again thats nyc all the time 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: Boating season starts in 3 months, days are getting longer, lots to look forward to… I used to be flounder fishing the Shrewsbury River the last week of Feb in the 80s. Sadly they are nearly extirpated and scientists don't think they will recover, but I caught one in LI Sound last fall while porgy fishing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I used to be flounder fishing the Shrewsbury River the last week of Feb in the 80s. Sadly they are nearly extirpated and scientists don't think they will recover, but I caught one in LI Sound last fall while porgy fishing. I miss winter flounder dearly. The tastiest of the flatfish. They just won't enter the estuary waters in great numbers anymore, and their numbers are also likely down for one reason or another. However, last year during spring blackfish season, I accidentally caught one. Quick thinking on my buddies part lead us to change up rigs the next trip out and drop from small long shank rigs with bloodworms on the periphery of some of the wrecks we were fishing. To our surprise, they were stacked with winter flounder. (Barnegat) (Sorry to derail...) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 hours ago, kat5hurricane said: NYC averages 25-30 inches a year. This isn't Atlanta. What we've seen the last few winters is NOT the normal outcome. Yes it is. If you were around during the 80s & 90s you'd understand. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Gfs largely the same 1 to 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Gfs largely the same 1 to 2" Slightly tick north with the norlun . SNJ does the best on the run. The runs tomorrow will be interesting to see if it comes further north. Too bad we couldn't get a big storm out of this with the cold in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs largely the same 1 to 2" I think we do better then last storm locally 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: I think we do better then last storm locally Maybe we can squeeze out 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The 12z NAM has about 0.3 liquid around the city. The nam is a bit noisy with the QPF owing likely to the localized banding potential with the inverted trough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 CMC is wetter then the rgem which usually isn’t the case this close to a event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 49 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: sun angle is also higher. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Barron’s Earth Science NYS Regents guide vibes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 sign me up for this... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: sign me up for this... Yeah thats much further north and wetter. Would be 2 to 4" by 1pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 But its the rap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 you folks are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to analyse which model is right and or will trend in whatever direction. IMO this comes down to a now casting event using radar trends starting tomorrow just like what happened during yesterdays storm. Only thing that is certain is the immediate metro will be frozen mainly snow. No model can determine exactly where the lightest and heaviest bands or dry slots will set up exactly......... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: But its the rap Yes but these troughs can move around alot on the models. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, NEG NAO said: you folks are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to analyse which model is right and or will trend in whatever direction. IMO this comes down to a now casting event using radar trends starting tomorrow just like what happened during yesterdays storm. Only thing that is certain is the immediate metro will be frozen mainly snow. No model can determine exactly where the lightest and heaviest bands or dry slots will set up exactly......... Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Usual rule with IVTs they go north late, not a surprise the last 24 hours we now see it focusing closer to NYC than down in the MA as it initially was 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Usual rule with IVTs they go north late, not a surprise the last 24 hours we now see it focusing closer to NYC than down in the MA as it initially was can't tell you how many times I've seen NYC in the bullseye at 60 hours out for it to hit CT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: can't tell you how many times I've seen NYC in the bullseye at 60 hours out for it to hit CT Yeah, in this case though I fear it could shift back south slightly, not really much room for this whole thing to come much further north really. And if it somehow did if confluence over SE Canada weakened we'd probably get more WAA snows from the S/W anyway. If you want any snow now you ideally probably wanna be in roughly the NYC corridor down to CNJ. North or south of that things can probably go wrong more so 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, wdrag said: 12z/17 RDPS gives me pause... might just be a waffle less but I can't go overboard on expectations. Take what we can get Its sort of funny how it was most consistent model with this past event but its been in my mind the most inconsistent with this one by a wide margin. The NAM/Euro have been most consistent, albeit snowing different ideas but they've bounced around the least run to run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, dseagull said: I miss winter flounder dearly. The tastiest of the flatfish. They just won't enter the estuary waters in great numbers anymore, and their numbers are also likely down for one reason or another. However, last year during spring blackfish season, I accidentally caught one. Quick thinking on my buddies part lead us to change up rigs the next trip out and drop from small long shank rigs with bloodworms on the periphery of some of the wrecks we were fishing. To our surprise, they were stacked with winter flounder. (Barnegat) (Sorry to derail...) That is amazingly good news! You will also see them on the wrecks offshore all summer and fall...with roe in them, so they must be spawning there. The downturn has to do mostly with commercial overfishing; they have tried to blame sea robins ( I am not making that up ) but honestly, you don't see them like you used to either. I last fished Barnegat in 96 near the power plant, where the flounder were in the creek ( nuclear flounder! ). But we always had much better fishing in Raritan. All we have in the bay now is stripers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Usual rule with IVTs they go north late, not a surprise the last 24 hours we now see it focusing closer to NYC than down in the MA as it initially was I only remember one of these hitting near me, March 2013, and it was melting as fast as it was accumulating. Around 4-5 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 56 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: you folks are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to analyse which model is right and or will trend in whatever direction. IMO this comes down to a now casting event using radar trends starting tomorrow just like what happened during yesterdays storm. Only thing that is certain is the immediate metro will be frozen mainly snow. No model can determine exactly where the lightest and heaviest bands or dry slots will set up exactly......... At some point, there will be an "official forecast" of accumulations. While I agree with you in terms of trying to "microanalyze" what they are going to be, I assume you're not trying to say that we have no clue at this point? It would appear to be a light/minor event (at least at this point) with likely accumulations perhaps 1"-3" for the general area? Am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: you folks are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to analyse which model is right and or will trend in whatever direction. IMO this comes down to a now casting event using radar trends starting tomorrow just like what happened during yesterdays storm. Only thing that is certain is the immediate metro will be frozen mainly snow. No model can determine exactly where the lightest and heaviest bands or dry slots will set up exactly......... but you don’t need to Nowcast for a general idea. Yesterday’s event was very well forecasted. It was a 1-3 event with a glaze of ice and rain on Long Island and immediate coast. What you have going on here are people wish casting and picking models That agree with whatever they want. more alarmingly, you have a national weather service that is posting a bit too much on social media and getting into a sensationalist type agency. As for the forum, it always went on. But it’s gotten into a new level and it’s quite upsetting. Ultimately, it leads to disappointment and people saying the models fucked up. But they didn’t fuck up. People just chose an outlier and tried to form a trend in their minds. and they are armed with a nice colorful map from the national weather service that they end up on the low end of and call it a bust. Unless something drastically changes, Friday is another 1-3 event with more cold air. you can nowcast idiosyncrasies as they happen. but you can’t make this a 6 inch storm, and then say the forecast was wrong… unless there is model consensus on a drastic change in the next 48 hours. whatever Friday brings, enjoy it. And enjoy this week because it ends sunday and there is no return date…yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, WIN said: Yes it is. If you were around during the 80s & 90s you'd understand. No, the last 2 winters is not the norm. I grew up in the late 80s and 90s and never experienced back to back winters like this. The snow drought we've been through is unprecedented and now we have people (even a meteorologist mind you) saying that it normally takes a miracle to get snow around here. Lets gain some perspective, what we've seen the last 2 years is not the norm. Even in bad years, we usually still get double digits. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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