Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, SBUWX23 said: that is some top notch analysis. You're welcome 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, SBUWX23 said: that is some top notch analysis. Confluence is weaker than 6z. Not sure how far north this can come but norluns always end up in a different spot than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Confluence is weaker than 6z. Not sure how far north this can come but norluns always end up in a different spot than modeled. It's around a quarter inch of liquid. And this is the wettest most overamped model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Way too early for amounts What? We are 2 days out. 1-3” is a safe bet, we should all be approaching 5” of snow for the season by this weekend (not inland people). have to figure we get at least another few inches by the end of march. So maybe we will nickel and dime our way to 10” of snow this winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Stormlover74 said: It's around a quarter inch of liquid. And this is the wettest most overamped model. NJ gets a few Inches. It's not that far off from more snow up here. Ratios will also be a factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, psv88 said: What? We are 2 days out. 1-3” is a safe bet, we should all be approaching 5” of snow for the season by this weekend (not inland people). have to figure we get at least another few inches by the end of march. So maybe we will nickel and dime our way to 10” of snow this winter I think 1-3 is a good call but this can still trend either way. I would wait till tomorrow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Nams look solid for 2-4 area wide. The snow growth will be better this time around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Last 3 nam runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Nams look solid for 2-4 area wide. The snow growth will be better this time around Looks like under 2 for north of 80 and ne of the city but with ratios who knows. But like you said last night dry air is a concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Looks like under 2 for north of 80 and ne of the city but with ratios who knows. But like you said last night dry air is a concern Glad I don’t live in those areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 FV3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 LP is actually in a good spot for NYC/LI on the NAM and RGEM, just need something to capture it or slow it down from speeding East 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Maybe today we’ll see the bump north we usually get with these systems. Let’s see what the other models have to say. If we get a little less confluence and slightly better S/W it can happen. Won’t be a major event but a 3-5” type outcome isn’t off the table. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Rgem weaker this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Expect a light snowfall and enjoy whatever we get. at least it wont wash away with rain Friday night. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I think 1-3 is a good call but this can still trend either way. I would wait till tomorrow . I would wait till later Friday evening..................In other words - now casting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I would wait till later Friday evening..................In other words - now casting These troughs can end up elsewhere than modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: Expect a light snowfall and enjoy whatever we get. at least it wont wash away with rain Friday night. Agree This is a general 1-2 inch storm with slightly more whoever gets in the banding. We will not know about that until it gets closer. This would have been a big storm if the flow wasn't fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Rgem weaker this run It's like 12 hours of light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Stormlover74 said: It's like 12 hours of light snow at least its not 55 degrees, flooding rains, and wind. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 A quick note on ratios: Unlike with the January 6-7 storm that had above freezing temperatures throughout the duration of the storm in the New York City area and saw very low snow-to-liquid ratios, this storm will have above climatological ratios in the New York City area. From this far out, the soundings can still miss details necessary to really pin down the ratios. Nevertheless, looking at historic cases with a high temperature of 28°-32° and precipitation amounts of 0.05"-0.25" for the January 15-February 15 period in New York City's climate record, one can have confidence in higher ratios. There were 64 such cases since 1869. The mean snow-to-liquid ratio was 13.3:1. The median snow-to-liquid ratio was 12.5:1. Given the historic data and early soundings, my starting assumption is that the snow-to-liquid ratio for the upcoming storm will fall somewhere between 12:1 and 15:1. So, at this point my thinking is that this system will bring a general 1"-3"/2"-4"-type snowfall to New York City and Newark. As most of this snow will fall during the daytime on Friday, the record streak without 2" daily snowfall is likely to end. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, SBUWX23 said: at least its not 55 degrees, flooding rains, and wind. That'll be soon enough 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Rgem weaker this run Ivt bumps totals Friday evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: It's like 12 hours of light snow Who cares Just enjoy the snow and cold right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Icon likes C and SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Stormlover74 said: That'll be soon enough Next week it will alll be a memory. We go back to looking at 20 day ens runs…sigh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Allsnow said: Next week it will alll be a memory. We go back to looking at 20 day ens runs…sigh Sadly this is true We need wall to wall winters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 12z/17 RDPS gives me pause... might just be a waffle less but I can't go overboard on expectations. Take what we can get 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Who cares Just enjoy the snow and cold right now Who said anything bad I'm just saying what the model showed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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