Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Nam looks like another light event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Comeback tonight I'm feeling it Nam looks like crap. Not a good start 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Nam looks like crap. Not a good start What? It's ways better than 18z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Nam looks like crap. Not a good start It does not. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Nam looks like crap. Not a good start It's getting better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Further north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 This is crap? It's not a ku but this isn't necessarily crap 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Nam is so close to a bigger storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I stand corrected. Looked like it was going to be very dry. Id take that all day 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 10 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: This is crap? It's not a ku but this isn't necessarily crap Its got a flukey secondary surface reflection though in the IVT off NJ...18Z RGEM had that too and I think both runs overdid QPF as a result....it can happen though, its just hard to assume at 80 hours out it does but little surface lows forming within the IVT or along a boundary can tick the QPF up enough to matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 SREF mean is in upstate NY lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its got a flukey secondary surface reflection though in the IVT off NJ...18Z RGEM had that too and I think both runs overdid QPF as a result....it can happen though, its just hard to assume at 80 hours out it does but little surface lows forming within the IVT or along a boundary can tick the QPF up enough to matter Understand the concern but at 500 MB it makes sense why it's trying to redevelop the surface low where it is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: SREF mean is in upstate NY lol What is? Share the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: SREF mean is in upstate NY lol Always overamped...I glanced and it 2-3 days back for today and it did have heaviest snows in like NE PA and Monticello sure enough and it was like 80 miles too far NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: SREF mean is in upstate NY lol Huh? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Rgem is weaker overall Still 2 to 4 for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 24 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Always overamped...I glanced and it 2-3 days back for today and it did have heaviest snows in like NE PA and Monticello sure enough and it was like 80 miles too far NW That's great if it's overamped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I wouldn't even be worried if trough consolidation is the issue right now. seeing the weaker confluence from the NAM, ICON, and RGEM is a big deal and is something that can't really be fixed that easily if it's crappy. however, look at today's system at the same lead time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I wouldn't even be worried if trough consolidation is the issue right now. seeing the weaker confluence from the NAM, ICON, and RGEM is a big deal and is something that can't really be fixed that easily if it's crappy. however, look at today's system at the same lead time: Gfs did the same thing Tik tik tik Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs did the same thing Tik tik tik Didn't get any better though. Same qpf as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The RGEM looked way better aloft early but it did not translate through the whole run...it more or less was just a bit faster than 18Z but not a huge difference. The ICON was better but it waffles every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The new op Euro and EPS are unimpressed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 The target for this decent 9-15 hour snowfall continue PA-NJ, though the SREF is I80 north. Debateable but to me it looks like a base snowfall of 2" everywhere and then tops could e narrow swath of 5". NWS graphics attached from 09z/17. I added OBS to the thread title at 503AM Wed and unfortunately felt the need to add rain/snow mix tag for at least eastern/southern LI and coastal NJ where all snow is not in my mind a 100% guarantee. This event differs from the Tuesday event (I'll have a snowfall/qpf brief review up in the Tuesday thread late today). Tuesday was pure warm air advection with an 850 MB sw jet as the 5H short wave triesdtilting negative in its Tuesday afternoon mid Atlantic coast passage. This upcoming event looks a little more negative at 5H, and to me sharper with slower flow aloft as an 850MB low (very weak) tries to form in eastern PA-NJ coast Friday. This one to me has a little better chance at a short period of decent dendritic snow growth. (Tuesdays snow at least for nw NJ was mostly small flake dense packed). The EPS is well south of the SREF. I like best snowfall in the weak south or east flow between 8H-7H which is north of the EPS and is what the NWS 09z/17 probabilities for 2 and 4" show. User the colors bar for the chances of these amounts and click for clarity. All solutions need consideration. Another nice snowfall is on the way. At 555AM I added: The thought that we could break the record consecutive streak of no daily snowfall 2" or more at CP is definitely a possibility. Depends on snowfall rates and timing the measuring. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: The new op Euro and EPS are unimpressed They were horrible with the last storm. Horrible models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, wdrag said: The target for this decent 9-15 hour snowfall continue PA-NJ, though the SREF is I80 north. Debateable but to me it looks like a base snowfall of 2" everywhere and then tops could e narrow swath of 5". NWS graphics attached from 09z/17. I added OBS to the thread title at 503AM Wed and unfortunately felt the need to add rain/snow mix tag for at least eastern/southern LI and coastal NJ where all snow is not in my mind a 100% guarantee. This event differs from the Tuesday event (I'll have a snowfall/qpf brief review up in the Tuesday thread late today). Tuesday was pure warm air advection with an 850 MB sw jet as the 5H short wave triesdtilting negative in its Tuesday afternoon mid Atlantic coast passage. This upcoming event looks a little more negative at 5H, and to me sharper with slower flow aloft as an 850MB low (very weak) tries to form in eastern PA-NJ coast Friday. This one to me has a little better chance at a short period of decent dendritic snow growth. (Tuesdays snow at least for nw NJ was mostly small flake dense packed). The EPS is well south of the SREF. I like best snowfall in the weak south or east flow between 8H-7H which is north of the EPS and is what the NWS 09z/17 probabilities for 2 and 4" show. User the colors bar for the chances of these amounts and click for clarity. All solutions need consideration. Another nice snowfall is on the way. At 555AM I added: The thought that we could break the record consecutive streak of no daily snowfall 2" or more at CP is definitely a possibility. Depends on snowfall rates and timing the measuring. Walt, nice write up, interesting thing about Tuesday's storm was that although it did change to a wintry mix on the south shore of Long Island we got as much or more than what the city and close suburbs got -- we got 2-3 inches in the storm-- because of higher precip amounts on the front end. So changing over is worth it if you get more snowfall before it changes over. I've seen this before with coastals in borderline situations, where although the south shore changes over, they get more snow because of higher precip amounts, than areas that did not change over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: They were horrible with the last storm. Horrible models. If we get another 2-3 inches, we'll be happy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: If we get another 2-3 inches, we'll be happy. Same but it's looking like dusting to an inch now . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 From this morning 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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