Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I think nyc and LI will have huge issues with dry air with this storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I think nyc and LI will have huge issues with dry air with this storm All will depend on the strength of the subsidence to the north and the confluent flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 21 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I think nyc and LI will have huge issues with dry air with this storm Fitting. When we have marginal airmass, we get smoked by the mid layer warmth. Now we have the cold, but we’re too progressive to overcome the low dews. If I interpreted that correctly, inland will be on the outside looking in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Rmine1 said: Fitting. When we have marginal airmass, we get smoked by the mid layer warmth. Now we have the cold, but we’re too progressive to overcome the low dews. If I interpreted that correctly, inland will be on the outside looking in? It stinks but it does happen a lot through history. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Fitting. When we have marginal airmass, we get smoked by the mid layer warmth. Now we have the cold, but we’re too progressive to overcome the low dews. If I interpreted that correctly, inland will be on the outside looking in? You live near an ocean that has a warm stream running near and off the coast. You have been spoiled over the last 10-15 years with big storms and KUs. They don't always work that way. Both of these systems are not classics by any stretch and of course they'll have some challenges. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12/13/89 is the closest match at 500...do NOT go look at what happened that day if you cannot remember 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 12/13/89 is the closest match at 500...do NOT go look at what happened that day if you cannot remember I sadly remember the Christmas Carolina storm, but that was around the 22nd. Is that what you’re referring too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 19 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Fitting. When we have marginal airmass, we get smoked by the mid layer warmth. Now we have the cold, but we’re too progressive to overcome the low dews. If I interpreted that correctly, inland will be on the outside looking in? The meso models already showing lesser totals on LI and down the Hudson valley. In this set up with light returns the dry air coming down from sne can really eat away at the snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, Allsnow said: The meso models already showing lesser totals on LI and down the Hudson valley. In this set up with light returns the dry air coming down from sne can really eat away at the snow At the same time it can also tighten the forcing gradient and where it is snowing under light returns its full of fluff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: I sadly remember the Christmas Carolina storm, but that was around the 22nd. Is that what you’re referring too? It was a DC/BWI/IAD/ILG snow event they had 3-7 inches and we saw nothing due to similar confluence issues in Canada. My memory is models showed nothing here but parts of SNJ and SE PA got nothing and were forecast to see several inches. Just 2 nights later we were supposed to see 4-8 and got 20 minutes snow, went to rain and it ended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The meso models already showing lesser totals on LI and down the Hudson valley. In this set up with light returns the dry air coming down from sne can really eat away at the snow So everyone is screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: It was a DC/BWI/IAD/ILG snow event they had 3-7 inches and we saw nothing due to similar confluence issues in Canada. My memory is models showed nothing here but parts of SNL and SE PA got nothing and were forecast to see several inches. Just 2 nights later we were supposed to see 4-8 and got 20 minutes snow, went to rain and it ended Got it. I don’t recall the year, but I remember being under blizzard warnings, only to watch DC/PHL get crushed, as we watched the wall of precipitation literally sit 20 miles offshore to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 27 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Fitting. When we have marginal airmass, we get smoked by the mid layer warmth. Now we have the cold, but we’re too progressive to overcome the low dews. If I interpreted that correctly, inland will be on the outside looking in? Southwest toward Philly and DC is favored right now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 12/13/89 is the closest match at 500...do NOT go look at what happened that day if you cannot remember Awful. Forecast of 4 to 8" of snow turned to a heavy driving rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I will say though models almost never trend west or north. Wherever the gradient is now should verify. Models almost never miss these situations. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Awful. Forecast of 4 to 8" of snow turned to a heavy driving rainstorm Nah, that was 12/15 haha, so two screwings in 3 days but the first one we were expected to see nothing though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Nah, that was 12/15 haha, so two screwings in 3 days but the first one we were expected to see nothing though Oh wow don't remember that one. 89 was a bad year for snow in general after the February miss with only the Thanksgiving storm being good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Sorry for being a pest, but is this an AON setup, or tampering expectations for an elongated light snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 49 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 12/13/89 is the closest match at 500...do NOT go look at what happened that day if you cannot remember I remember hearing on AM radio shortly after 5pm that it was raining in NYC. My disappointment was muted as I looked out the window at the raging snowstorm that dropped about 15" on Stowe. I learned that day that Vermont is a much better place for clippers than southern NY. EDIT: I think you're right. The clipper I am thinking of might have been on the 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: I remember hearing on AM radio shortly after 5pm that it was raining in NYC. My disappointment was muted as I looked out the window at the raging snowstorm that dropped about 15" on Stowe. I learned that day that Vermont is a much better place for clippers than southern NY. EDIT: I think you're right. The clipper I am thinking of might have been on the 15th. The 15th is when the storm formed too close to the coast and we flipped to rain after about 10 minutes of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 16 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: I remember hearing on AM radio shortly after 5pm that it was raining in NYC. My disappointment was muted as I looked out the window at the raging snowstorm that dropped about 15" on Stowe. I learned that day that Vermont is a much better place for clippers than southern NY. EDIT: I think you're right. The clipper I am thinking of might have been on the 15th. It was a Miller B digger that was supposed to re-develop and did not dig enough Models were notorious for blowing those into the middle or even later 90s. They either would over dig the shortwave or just over bomb the surface low too early when the trof reached the MA so we had a ton of overblown snow forecasts that never happened. This one was the latter more so, it did not dig enough and the low tracked overhead. 2/16/97 is the last instance I remember of models botching one, the ETA became a good fail safe at not screwing them up and the Euro began to get increasingly used more after March 93 by the US forecasters so those busts sort of fell off the radar after the early 90s mostly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, SBUWX23 said: You live near an ocean that has a warm stream running near and off the coast. You have been spoiled over the last 10-15 years with big storms and KUs. They don't always work that way. Both of these systems are not classics by any stretch and of course they'll have some challenges. C'mon man, you've got to let folks vent a little lol. That post was small enough to be a classic 140 character tweet. Just because it snowed a lot in the past two decades doesn't mean he has to be happy with 1 inch of snow and ice. He knows he doesn't live in the Alps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: C'mon man, you've got to let folks vent a little lol. That post was small enough to be a classic 140 character tweet. Just because it snowed a lot in the past two decades doesn't mean he has to be happy with 1 inch of snow and ice. He knows he doesn't live in the Alps. Jeez sorry I didn't know I wasn't letting people vent man. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Comeback tonight I'm feeling it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: Jeez sorry I didn't know I wasn't letting people vent man. I'm sorry man I was going for a laugh but it came off wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, Rmine1 said: Got it. I don’t recall the year, but I remember being under blizzard warnings, only to watch DC/PHL get crushed, as we watched the wall of precipitation literally sit 20 miles offshore to the south. The infamous 2/6/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: The infamous 2/6/10. We didn't have blizzard warnings for that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Comeback tonight I'm feeling it What exactly are you feeling tonight?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 14 minutes ago, Irish said: What exactly are you feeling tonight?! Frisky 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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