wdrag Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 This post is at the seeming urging of multiple models this weekend offering a period of snow to the NYC subforum. Presuming it occurs, it could begin late Thursday the 18th, or it could linger into early Saturday the 20th. The coldest air of the season so far in NYC, may follow on gusty northwest winds next weekend, the 20th-21st. There doesn't seem to be anything definitive per this Jan 14th issuance, except that a period of snow is expected for at least a portion of NYC subforum on Friday with below normal temps. It's a strong positive tilt trough that approaches from the Great Lakes-Ohio Valley late this coming week. Attached the 12z/14 GEFS 500 MB mean left panel and 500 MB ensemble membership right panel. The NWS Sunday 'day' shift ensemble chance of 1/4" or greater snow-ice is attached as well as the 12z/14 EPS 24 hour positive snow accumulation ensembles ending around midnight Friday night. The 18z/14 GEFS was lighter for the same period so I extended the 24 hour positive snow depth ending time to sunrise Saturday whereas the CMCE was faster with the snow so I ended it 00z/20. Overall this Dec-Jan winter, it is my impression the GEFS tends to be conservative forecasting snow, the CMCE more liberal with more abundant qpf as well. I may have to add rain in the tags for the coasts as we draw closer to the proposed thread day... for now the colder solution was favored but uncertainty exists. Title addition 1/17/24 503AM: Event OBS. Tags: added rain/snow mix. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 If everything comes together, this can be a big storm . These storms usually happen when a new pattern emerges . It will come down to phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Typical, we are in 4-5 day range now and models "backing off" on the end of week/early weekend potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Lots of time for this storm to play out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 06z EPS mean is 2”+ across the area with highest amounts east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Gfs and cmc closer with Fridays storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Cmc is a pretty decent hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Cmc is a pretty decent hit 2-4/3-5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 well this raises my eyebrows 10 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 minutes ago, Northof78 said: 2-4/3-5"? Along those lines but very close to 6+. I don't think it had much of anything last night 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: well this raises my eyebrows I’m wondering if this has to do with tonight’s storm trending more amped and putting a better 50/50 low in place. If that’s the case we should want tonight’s storm as close to the coast as possible, even if it means mixing issues. Then we can feast on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, LVblizzard said: I’m wondering if this has to do with tonight’s storm trending more amped and putting a better 50/50 low in place. If that’s the case we should want tonight’s storm as close to the coast as possible, even if it means mixing issues. Then we can feast on Friday. This was my thought a few days ago too, the closer to the coast storm 1 is, the closer to the coast storm 2 will be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Geps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Geps This is close to the ideal location for a coastal storm for us. If you want to know what the ideal location is, it would be due east of Cape May and due south of Cape Cod. Draw those two lines and where they intersect is where we want the center of the low to be. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Eastern Suffolk may get a nice storm on Friday. This one of those where Montauk gets 8 inches and the rest of the island 2-4”. william Floyd parkway special 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Eastern Suffolk may get a nice storm on Friday. This one of those where Montauk gets 8 inches and the rest of the island 2-4”. william Floyd parkway special I’m unemployed till January 29th. So. Maybe I’ll drive to Montauk if that’s the case. Maybe Jim cantore will be there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I’m unemployed till January 29th. So. Maybe I’ll drive to Montauk if that’s the case. Maybe Jim cantore will be there Long way to go. So far this looks like a nice event for us. Cold, storm well offshore and plenty of room for it to come west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 You'd rather be in PHL-NYC now for this than BOS/DCA. Its fairly rare we ever say that but this is a setup where at least at this moment that corridor is more likely to do well, BOS would have a chance to improve on their prospects than DCA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 EURO a whiff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, Northof78 said: EURO a whiff? 1-3/2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Northof78 said: EURO a whiff? 1 to 4 light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, Northof78 said: EURO a whiff? Yep it's over. Models never trend back to the NW. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Speaking of which, who remembers the one in late winter 98 or 99 which was expected to be so out to sea that it never made the news and was barely discussed in whatever the forum of the day was, but it backed up and bombed out and left Montauk with 14", I think 6" to William Floyd, dusting at the Nassau/Suffolk line, and partly cloudy in Manhattan. Pretty sure I got a couple inches from that in Nassau. I think it was Feb 1999. Cape Cod got like 2 feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 42 minutes ago, Rjay said: Pretty sure I got a couple inches from that in Nassau. I think it was Feb 1999. Cape Cod got like 2 feet. https://northshorewx.com/19990225SnowTotals.html NEW YORK... 1130 AM EST FRI FEB 26 1999 THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT. MONTAUK SUFFOLK 13.5 730 AM EAST HAMPTON SUFFOLK 10.0 700 AM SHINECOCK SUFFOLK 8.5 730 AM BRIDGEHAMPTON SUFFOLK 8.5 700 AM ORIENT POINT SUFFOLK 8.0 700 AM NWS OFFICE BROOKHAVEN SUFFOLK 6.4 700 AM PATCHOGUE SUFFOLK 5.9 700 AM RIDGE SUFFOLK 5.0 730 AM MOUNT SINAI SUFFOLK 4.7 700 AM FARMINGVILLE SUFFOLK 4.6 800 AM SOUTH SETAUKET SUFFOLK 4.5 800 AM RONKONKOMA SUFFOLK 4.0 700 AM ISLIP SUFFOLK 3.0 700 AM CENTERPORT SUFFOLK 2.8 800 AM FARMINGDALE NASSAU 2.0 700 AM OCEANSIDE NASSAU 1.8 600 AM NORTH MASSAPEQUA NASSAU 1.5 700 AM LA GUARDIA AP QUEENS 2.0 700 AM KENNEDY AP QUEENS 1.0 700 AM GRAVES END BROOKLYN KINGS 1.2 800 AM CENTRAL PARK NEW YORK 1.5 700 AM WHITE PLAINS WESTCHESTER 1.3 700 AM 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Time to start extrapolating the 84 NAM/RGEM ....the RGEM seemed somewhat interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 17 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: https://northshorewx.com/19990225SnowTotals.html NEW YORK... 1130 AM EST FRI FEB 26 1999 THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT. MONTAUK SUFFOLK 13.5 730 AM EAST HAMPTON SUFFOLK 10.0 700 AM SHINECOCK SUFFOLK 8.5 730 AM BRIDGEHAMPTON SUFFOLK 8.5 700 AM ORIENT POINT SUFFOLK 8.0 700 AM NWS OFFICE BROOKHAVEN SUFFOLK 6.4 700 AM PATCHOGUE SUFFOLK 5.9 700 AM RIDGE SUFFOLK 5.0 730 AM MOUNT SINAI SUFFOLK 4.7 700 AM FARMINGVILLE SUFFOLK 4.6 800 AM SOUTH SETAUKET SUFFOLK 4.5 800 AM RONKONKOMA SUFFOLK 4.0 700 AM ISLIP SUFFOLK 3.0 700 AM CENTERPORT SUFFOLK 2.8 800 AM FARMINGDALE NASSAU 2.0 700 AM OCEANSIDE NASSAU 1.8 600 AM NORTH MASSAPEQUA NASSAU 1.5 700 AM LA GUARDIA AP QUEENS 2.0 700 AM KENNEDY AP QUEENS 1.0 700 AM GRAVES END BROOKLYN KINGS 1.2 800 AM CENTRAL PARK NEW YORK 1.5 700 AM WHITE PLAINS WESTCHESTER 1.3 700 AM That was a massive bust, forecast I believe was zippo for all of the area and it began snowing on the twin forks at like 3am and they went right to warnings 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: That was a massive bust, forecast I believe was zippo for all of the area and it began snowing on the twin forks at like 3am and they went right to warnings I remember the snow backed in from the ocean. I can't remember what time that happened though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, Rjay said: I remember the snow backed in from the ocean. I can't remember what time that happened though. It was 3am-7pm or so....I think in Nassau we only saw snow from like 2-6pm briefly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Rjay said: I remember the snow backed in from the ocean. I can't remember what time that happened though. That's what I remember. here's a sat pic: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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