ORH_wxman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Figured I would start a different thread for this because it has continued to improve on model guidance over the past 24-36 hours. Sunday afternoon is starting to look pretty prime for some squalls. If we go over our old school WINDEX checklist, we look for below ingredients: 1. Low level moisture 2. steep lapse rates 3. strong LI spike (source of lift) 4. Cyclonic PVA (really this just enhances #3, but it can make an event higher end) All 4 of these ingredients are present in a pretty big way on Sunday. We have LL moisture in the 65-90% range which is excellent. We have extremely steep lapse rates (TTs near 60!) and saturation up to around 600mb Have a huge LI spike of 16-18 in 12 hours and to assist that we have strong PVA with that nice shortwave. Below is the 06z NAM for tomorrow afternoon…you can see where I circled the potent vortmax (there’s our strong PVA) and then you even have a sfc response from with that clear kink in the isobars (marked on the right)…that helps veer those winds to more southerly component ahead of the front which is what we like to see because it helps pool moisture…same thing we look for in warm season Tstorm/severe threats. These types of setups are where you can pick up a quick 1-2”…perhaps even an isolated higher amount if you get into some good squalls…in addition, we’re going to have rapidly falling temps from the mid 30s down into the lower 20s within a few hours, so we’ll need to watch for flash freeze on roads in some areas. 15 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Thanks for the thread. I really like the potential tomorrow. At the very least it’ll feel like winter with the wind and those crashing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 HRRR mixes gusts 50-60 mph down to surface 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Good post. The hires models have been a little extra interesting. 6z 3k had a little mesolow going through SNE and the 6z weenie extended HRRR actually turned it into a coastal for E ME. But yeah those TTs are always a good sign. This was a weenie forecast sounding from one of the squall lines over my head. Classic windex look. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Good thread. It’s definitely impressive looking on hires. And Kevin is right. Those winds could be real nasty across many areas. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I like seeing the deep moisture through the column with those TTs. In fact nam probably would be easily a few inches where that starts to pivot lol. Tries to develop a low like Brian said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I wonder if RI and SE Mass do better with this one than 01/28/10. I think that one was mostly a CT event. PVD only picked up 0.5." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, WJX231 said: I wonder if RI and SE Mass do better with this one than 01/28/10. I think that one was mostly a CT event. PVD only picked up 0.5." Might start as a mix briefly and looks like it will zip along. Wherever it pivots and develops a meso low will be the heavier amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Wiz for sure should be excited for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Good thread. It’s definitely impressive looking on hires. And Kevin is right. Those winds could be real nasty across many areas. We wild 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 38 minutes ago, dendrite said: Good post. The hires models have been a little extra interesting. 6z 3k had a little mesolow going through SNE and the 6z weenie extended HRRR actually turned it into a coastal for E ME. But yeah those TTs are always a good sign. This was a weenie forecast sounding from one of the squall lines over my head. Classic windex look. 12z hrrr is a mini blizz for downeast ME again after the meso rolls through SNH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We wild Let’s mix to 600mb 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Let’s mix to 600mb Trees coming down all around but we can’t see them thru the whiteout , so we just go and stand in the woods 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Trees coming down all around but we can’t see them thru the whiteout , so we just go and stand in the woods You still have trees? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, dendrite said: You still have trees? Not for long 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Let’s get some TSSN too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 This is so much like that 2010 event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Might start as a mix briefly and looks like it will zip along. Wherever it pivots and develops a meso low will be the heavier amounts. Yeah definitely wont be more than an inch or so around here at most. Maybe 10% chance it gives us 2". But maybe the wind will make this one more memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is so much like that 2010 event 2010 was a long lived squall line. That was the one the RSM nailed. This may be a little different if we get a mesolow forming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Didn’t the NAM a couple nights ago(Thursday at 0z fri.) hint at this? And we were like what the heck is the NAM Doing? Hmm, I think it caught the first glimpse of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is so much like that 2010 event 2" in 45 minutes at RUM, 1" at home, best snowsquall since we moved from Fort Kent in 1985. (Unfortunately, that event brought the last flakes of powder here for the 09-10 snow season.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Didn’t the NAM a couple nights ago(Thursday at 0z fri.) hint at this? And we were like what the heck is the NAM Doing? Hmm, I think it caught the first glimpse of this. There were a couple of models if I remember correctly that had an off/on signal for snow showers but I think the NAM was the first to get more aggressive and consistent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Didn’t the NAM a couple nights ago(Thursday at 0z fri.) hint at this? And we were like what the heck is the NAM Doing? Hmm, I think it caught the first glimpse of this. Yeah nammy went miller B on one run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 hours ago, dendrite said: 2010 was a long lived squall line. That was the one the RSM nailed. This may be a little different if we get a mesolow forming. Nothing was more epic than that squall that hit KLW's area down through you a few years ago. Wasn't that like an 8" squall? Guess that wasn't a squall line per se either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 5 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Nothing was more epic than that squall that hit KLW's area down through you a few years ago. Wasn't that like an 8" squall? Guess that wasn't a squall line per se either. Yeah that was awesome…1/8/20. I was talking with my wife about it the other day because we went out in the middle of it for groceries. But yeah, that was a streamer that made it through your area and survived my way versus a long N-S oriented squall line that ripped through here right from central NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 So is 2010 like the largest known windex event in SNE? Nobody remembers anything else bigger than that one in this area? I can't really recall many snow squall events in this area in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, WJX231 said: So is 2010 like the largest known windex event in SNE? Nobody remembers anything else bigger than that one in this area? I can't really recall many snow squall events in this area in general. There was a big one in January 1993 for NNE. But the 2010 was great for SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: There was a big one in January 1993 for NNE. But the 2010 was great for SNE Yeah I would imagine that they are more common in NNE and especially upstate NY. It seems like in RI and EMA they tend to loose their punch by the time they reach us here. I mean, even in 2010 PVD got just 0.5. I guess windex events just don't produce around here which is why I keep my expectations low. Just like with severe in the summertime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 11 minutes ago, WJX231 said: So is 2010 like the largest known windex event in SNE? Nobody remembers anything else bigger than that one in this area? I can't really recall many snow squall events in this area in general. I remember quite a few back in those early 90's great winters but not sure any were better than 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 minutes ago, WJX231 said: So is 2010 like the largest known windex event in SNE? Nobody remembers anything else bigger than that one in this area? I can't really recall many snow squall events in this area in general. Most of the time it’s just hit or miss scattered squalls. It’s just that we tracked 2010 for a few days and it got everyone involved with 1-3” in like 20-30 minutes. I’ve had many WINDEX squalls drop more than what we got that evening. The RSM jokes were from the old RSM SREF members that were insistent on a long lived squall line moving out of the BGM area and ripping through all of New England in the evening while other hires models at the time had the more typical random cell look. During the midday it was obvious that line was forming and that it meant business. But when we used to get sustained arctic airmasses these events (and clippers) were a lot more common. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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