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Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: The Return of Hope??


stormtracker
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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Maybe the stuff in the SW ends up stretching this way… as the high res have boosted totals in TN too. Just a little behind.:.
9d05a0f4d0df701a44c75f3cca139744.jpg

To your point, here's Nashville's disco tonight, FWIW: 

It`s snowing!!! All of our observation sites are reporting snow
this hour with the heaviest falling along and south of I-40. We`ve
already received a report of 0.5" of snow in Bellevue. Looking at
the latest run of the HRRR tonight, boy did it come in hot. It
paints a narrow band of higher totals ranging from 6-8 inches from
Wayne County all the way through to our furthest NE counties on
the Plateau, including Nashville. This solution would mean this
event overachieves a little further north than originally
forecasted and it pumps out more snow in any heavier bands that
move through. This will be something to watch as the night
progresses. There were talks of bumping up QPF along our northern
border to match up with this latest run of the HRRR, but for now,
we`re going to hold off on that to see what the next round of
models show since this is only 1 run. Our sounding tonight shows a
textbook snow event; big, healthy layer of moisture right in the
snow growth region with all layers below 0 degrees Celsius. As for
temperatures, they have tanked. Most everyone is sitting right
around 20 degrees and dropping. We will be back with a full
forecast update in the next several hours. In the meantime, stay
safe, stay warm, and enjoy the snow!

  

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6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Does this help to get the yellows over my backyard? Asking for myself

I think the trend toward a stronger system is a good trend, but short term models are sneaking a warm tongue in there and dryslot. Ideally, I think the heaviest precip should occur NW of the surface low, so I don't mind it wrapping up.. The global models are keeping precip closer to the surface low than the short term models are right now.

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