Eskimo Joe Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, nj2va said: They’ll do their standard 5% chance of everything. Then apologize for it not being 70 and sunny in December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 WB 3K NAM please be right!!!! 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 3K NAM please be right!!!! That's still not bad for D.C. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 3K NAM please be right!!!! Yeah you aren’t gonna hear me complain one bit if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Wow, LWX super aggressive. Hope they’re right. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Wow, LWX super aggressive. Hope they’re right. .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The region is likely to see the first significant accumulating snow in several years, starting late tonight in central VA, then spreading northward Monday into Tuesday. Cold conditions expected through mid week as highs struggle to reach the mid 30s south/east of US-29, and remain below freezing to the north/west. Monday night will see temps drop to the 20s, with teens in the mountains. Frigid temperatures arrive Tuesday night as the temps plunge into the teens, with single digits in the Alleghenies. Combined with gusty winds, dangerous wind chills are likely in the single digits to single digits below zero, and negative teens in the Alleghenies. A potent jet aloft and numerous waves of low pressure traversing the region that is socked in to an Arctic airmass will allow for at least two periods of accumulating snowfall. The first is expected tonight into Monday morning as a broad shortwave moves overhead. The highest snow totals are expected in Central VA and the Central Shenandoah Valley where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued. Snow amounts of around 1" are expected along the I-95 corridor from Fredericksburg up to the DC metro, and around half an inch up to the Baltimore metro. Snow rates should decrease Monday afternoon as the area enters a lull between events. Intermittent light snow and flurries will be possible all day across most of the area. The second period of snow is expected Monday evening into Tuesday, and this is expected to produce widespread snow amounts of 2-3" with isolated higher amounts possible. Additional Winter Weather Advisories are expected to be issued during the next forecast cycle tonight to account for the second period of snow. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 If NAM is correct, WInter Storm Watches should go up for parts of the area. Maybe if the 0Z looks as good.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Nam raises my Kuchera to 4.7 from 4.0. Mt. psu gets 6.2. He said he needed at least 4 so this should make him happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: If NAM is correct, WInter Storm Watches should go up for parts of the area. Maybe if the 0Z looks as good.... Nah. WWA at best friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Nah. WWA at best friend Maybe you'll change your mind after the 5th mimosa 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18z NAM really strengthened the potential a little bit.. same precip, but it's closer to a phase, and about 3-4mb lower with the coastal. I think they could go WSWatches. Key thing is 18z HRR had a more negative tilt early, and upped totals in the SE. Negative is it's going with a faster thump. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Maybe you'll change your mind after the 5th mimosa Heading home. Now. Either I’m doing 18z GFs pbp or I’m passed out. Equal chances. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nah. WWA at best friend He’s banking on the RGEM showing bigly stuff here in a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff R. Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 31 minutes ago, stormy said: I was debating sending a flash to my Newsletter subscribers but I'm holding off. Maybe the forecaster has had 3 or 4 Mimosa's. Stormy, I would be interested in receiving your newsletter- can I send you a PM with my e-mail address? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Heading home. Now. Either I’m doing 18z GFs pbp or I’m passed out. Equal chances. Maybe the 18z GFS will make you pass out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Jeff R. said: Stormy, I would be interested in receiving your newsletter- can I send you a PM with my e-mail address? This has to be a secondary account created by Stormy to try and market his newsletter. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 This generally seems like an event we can do well on. I'm just happy we don't have to battle with graupel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Maybe the 18z GFS will make you pass out Or throw up … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I'd be wary of the NAM folks, even the 3km. Mainly because, well, it's the NAM (btw NCEP can't pull the plug on that model soon enough). I know it's in the shorter range when the NAM could actually be right. But look at some of the CAMS, including the latest (18Z) HREF are all farther south with the axis. I mean, look at the latest HRRR (the one Pivotal Wx map)...heaviest stays south! And were within 24-36 hours of go time. Will be interesting to see the 18Z GFS trends. ECMWF and UKMET, while not as far south with the max QPF and snow axis (into central VA), are definitely more muted with more widespread 2-3" for most, which is consistent with the NBM. Proceed with caution with the NAM3.. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 15z SREF.. seems like they are honing in on 3" max, except the RAP which had 4-5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 At this point I’m just gonna ride with Sterling tbh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, WxMan1 said: I'd be wary of the NAM folks, even the 3km. Mainly because, well, it's the NAM (btw NCEP can't pull the plug on that model soon enough). I know it's in the shorter range when the NAM could actually be right. But look at some of the CAMS, including the latest (18Z) HREF are all farther south with the axis. I mean, look at the latest HRRR (the one Pivotal Wx map)...heaviest stays south! And were within 24-36 hours of go time. Will be interesting to see the 18Z GFS trends. ECMWF and UKMET, while not as far south with the max QPF and snow axis (into central VA), are definitely more muted with more widespread 2-3" for most, which is consistent with the NBM. Proceed with caution with the NAM3.. Good thoughts. Think we could get the last minute N trend. But I’d like to see gfs show 4-6” swath again on 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 15z SREF.. seems like they are honing in on 3" max, except the RAP which had 4-5" How do they handle ratios? 10:1? and is this showing snowfall or depth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, jayyy said: Was just going to say the same thing. My doctor thinks herbal remedies are better for my health, and I concur. . I agree, I have anxiety, depression and back pain (USMC vet lmao) and it helps me immensely. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 26 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 3K NAM please be right!!!! If you don’t mind can you show the Roanoke area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Benjamn3 said: I agree, I have anxiety, depression and back pain (USMC vet lmao) and it helps me immensely. That sucks. Sorry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, TSG said: How do they handle ratios? 10:1? and is this showing snowfall or depth? Some models have it mixing on or SE of I-95. I think the snow depth is most accurate because it takes into account lower ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Anecdotally I feel like there’s always a meso camp that bucks the trend for heaviest snow placement even through to the last day. Usually the trend buckers get embarrassed, but again, anecdotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 58 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: CWG is the opposite. 1-2" of light snow with little impact? I don't know.. I personally like the setup, because there is more upside when a storm is wet over the TN valley then jumps to the coast. Here was the 18z Hrrr Here's the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: That sucks. Sorry. Shit it’s all good man, ain’t nothin most people don’t have too. Mine may just be a touch worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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