Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 It's the RAP, but it does put 4" down north of Baltimore 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 So far, looks like a hold. Same as 6z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 ALEET! DT’s jaw just dropped to the floor 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, stormtracker said: So far, looks like a hold. Same as 6z Time for Hi-Res models big dawg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Literally a carbon copy of 6z..just slightly colder with sfc freezing line. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Done at 7pm Tuesday 2 to 4 area wide 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Literally a carbon copy of 6z..just slightly colder with sfc freezing line. We take…lock it in. Snow on the ground and cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Perfect event for a 'Snow Advisory' Why on Earth did they get rid of those? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, stormtracker said: Done at 7pm Tuesday 2 to 4 area wide As I mentioned, a 2-4”er area wide without thermal issues even SE of 95 would be a great win and a nice compromise. Amping it further would be too greedy and get some of us in trouble 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Looks awesome. LFG! 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 I should make more threads in the future. I mean since yall give negative superstitious credit, might as well get the fake good credit. 9 5 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, stormtracker said: I should make more threads in the future And definitely a lot more FOLKS! and JAWS! to go along with those! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 hours ago, Buddy1987 said: Still probably a little too early for the HRRR but damn does it look great. Fair point my man. Really hoping in SWVA we can snag some precip. I’m west of the blue ridge so I’m hoping I’m sitting pretty. Won’t know till it’s on the ground though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, nj2va said: Looks awesome. LFG! Even has the “surprise” mount @psuhoffmanto Catoctins jack. And the mini-jack over DCA will obvs get displaced to MBY. Let’s ride. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: As I mentioned, a 2-4”er area wide without thermal issues even SE of 95 would be a great win and a nice compromise. Amping it further would be too greedy and get some of us in trouble Should be pretty easy to keep up with too, -SN at >.03"/hr liquid. Snow TV for everyone is a good time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Impressive how similar that is to the first NBM map! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Accumulation tonight? Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1232 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 DCZ001-142100- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 1232 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... .THIS AFTERNOON...Mostly sunny with isolated snow showers. Windy with highs in the lower 40s. Temperature falling into the mid 30s. West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of snow 20 percent. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a slight chance of snow in the evening, then cloudy with snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation around an inch. Lows in the lower 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph, diminishing to around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 60 percent. .MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Additional snow accumulation around an inch possible. Highs in the lower 30s. West winds around 5 mph, becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. .MONDAY NIGHT...Snow likely in the evening, then snow after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. .TUESDAY...Snow likely in the morning. Highs in the lower 30s. North winds around 5 mph, becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow 60 percent. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I should make more threads in the future. I mean since yall give negative superstitious credit, might as well get the fake good credit.What we need to do is create threads and then a second thread when everything goes to shit on models at the day 4-5 range. That’s the key!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Accumulation tonight? Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1232 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 DCZ001-142100- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 1232 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... .THIS AFTERNOON...Mostly sunny with isolated snow showers. Windy with highs in the lower 40s. Temperature falling into the mid 30s. West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of snow 20 percent. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a slight chance of snow in the evening, then cloudy with snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation around an inch. Lows in the lower 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph, diminishing to around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 60 percent. .MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Additional snow accumulation around an inch possible. Highs in the lower 30s. West winds around 5 mph, becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. .MONDAY NIGHT...Snow likely in the evening, then snow after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. .TUESDAY...Snow likely in the morning. Highs in the lower 30s. North winds around 5 mph, becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow 60 percent. What are they looking at? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Even has the “surprise” mount [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention]to Catoctins jack. And the mini-jack over DCA will obvs get displaced to MBY. Let’s ride.Seems like a realistic depiction accounting for better lift / temps up this way but having the qpf jack closer to 95. Agreed though. More likely you see that 3-4” in that secondary jack than DC metro but who knows. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 ALEET! DT’s jaw just dropped to the floor Didn’t DT give up on this 24 hours ago? I told y’all. It’s the weather version of the Jim Cramer effect… predict the opposite of what DT&JB predict and you’re typically golden. “My jaw is on the floor. How dare models show snow in DC and BAL”. Gimme a break DT 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: Didn’t DT give up on this 24 hours ago? I told y’all. It’s the weather version of the Jim Cramer effect… predict the opposite of what DT&JB predict and you’re typically golden. “My jaw is on the floor. How dare models show snow in DC and BAL”. Gimme a break DT ummm most people in here drew the same conclusion only 24 hours earlier than DT. check the panic room 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Looks like by midnight, the whole area is under light/steady snow. DC showing a coating already. 0.2-0.4" precip areawide, lifting out by noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
understudyhero Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, 87storms said: Looks like by midnight, the whole area is under light/steady snow. DC showing a coating already. 0.2-0.4" precip areawide, lifting out by noon. Noon Tuesday correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, understudyhero said: Noon Tuesday correct? Yea, looks like an overnight through Tuesday morning event, per 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 damn. Bullish Agree with this forecast wholeheartedly. Think they did a good job being patient and letting things unfold before jumping the gun in either direction. Models have been consistent showing that “tongue” of enhanced qpf from DC NE up to BAL, so this looks spot on. I really don’t think temps will be an issue at all for 99% of us. Virga is annoying but it will cool the column. Dynamic cooling should fairly easily win out. Doubt the metros see much mixing, if any, especially in Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Interesting that the two previous storms were drought-busters and we finally get the cold and the heavy moisture is nowhere to be found. lol. Where's atmospheric memory when ya need it? Speaking of Richmond, VA getting more, I recall the last 5 years or so, that area jackpoting more than usual or at least getting more snow than DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Some models say tomorrow midday, others delay it until tomorrow evening. Hard to say, depends on where that narrow band aims and when the column gets saturated enough This event is quite a bit more disorganized than most of ours. hopefully the mesos will help us hone in on the details including banding We’re obv not getting 0.3” evenly distributed over 10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Would you buy, sell or hold 2.5” in your backyard. I’m between a sell and hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 ummm most people in here drew the same conclusion only 24 hours earlier than DT. check the panic roomI certainly didn’t, nor did deck pic and several others who kept commenting on the fact that things could easily trend better once we got to Saturday and beyond. When things are looking too progressive / flat, there’s typically room for things to trend in our direction. It’s when we need things to be less amped / further south / colder that things don’t pan out. 9/10 times, models correct NW / more amped as we get inside the day 4 range. There are a ton of people in here who get pretty emotional over whether or not it snows. That’s fine because 99% of them are weenies, not professional meteorologists. What you’re saying doesn’t help DT’s case at all. It makes it worse. See how LWX / legit Mets like MillvilleWx handle forecasts? They update us with the facts and likelihoods. They don’t fully commit until they have all relevant / current information. They don’t have wild emotional swings on twitter and their vlogs. I’m speaking to the fact that DT doesn’t stick to his convictions based on meteorology / the setup we have going into a storm. He swings with the models. Anyone can read the GFS / Euro snow output from 7 days out and cheer or pout about it as they change. It’s one thing if we do it. It’s another if Mets with a following do it. People rely on these mets for forecasts to make life decisions. Just think there’s a professional way to go about it, and DT doesn’t exemplify that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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