WxUSAF Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 24 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: If i recall nam has a lil bit of a warm bias It has a wrong bias 1 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 22 minutes ago, Terpeast said: At least the HRRR doesn’t show that 925 warm layer. For now. Either the Nam is onto something or it’s too warm The NAM has it because it amplifies the coastal some where others don’t. If you can call 1010 amplified lol. So it’s probably wrong. But…and I expounded on this more in the panic room don’t want to derail this thread…but don’t we want a coastal to amplify off the outer banks? That’s why I was disturbed that a weak ass coastal east of the outer banks blasted a low level warm later NW of 95. Book worthy? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 FV3 meso has wide 1-3 with a 4 jack around Baltimore 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The NAM has it because it amplifies the coastal some where others don’t. If you can call 1010 amplified lol. So it’s probably wrong. But…and I expounded on this more in the panic room don’t want to derail this thread…but don’t we want a coastal to amplify off the outer banks? That’s why I was disturbed that a weak ass coastal east of the outer banks blasted a low level warm later NW of 95. Book worthy? Book worthy if it actually happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Sterling updated their forecast for central md .. been a while since i seen something like this 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Majority of the precip is before we lose the thermals though. Agreed. While this could still potentially move further in the wrong direction (and to be clear, I think we'd be good for a while regardless), the NAM Nest is fine for snow for most of the area through the prime portion of the event. In fact, the "Ferrier" accumulation, which is completely driven by the model microphysics, has a nice accumulation for many, indicating that the model has the hydrometeors falling as snow for plenty of the key hours, even if it turns to some light freezing rain Tuesday morning: 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12z RGEM is better for the region compared to 06z 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z RGEM is better for the region compared to 06z Looking like areawide 2-4 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 35 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Per NAM, starts at like 4pm tomm and wraps up around 5pm Tuesday Thank you. That will work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Happy 12Z ICON run, for those who celebrate: 5 1 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Here’s to Randy’s GFS keeping the good vibes going. Squall and morning snow was nice up this way, almost an inch. Enjoy it as it rolls thru 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 GFS a tick with higher heights in front at H5 @27hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 lol, snow begins around 4am tomorrow. Last run it started a little later and there was a break at like 10 am 6 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, stormtracker said: lol, snow begins around 4am tomorrow I’ve not been watching closely for the last 24 hours or so, but this is the part I’ve been confused by. Some guidance showing this thin front running band early tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I’ve not been watching closely for the last 24 hours or so, but this is the part I’ve been confused by. Some guidance showing this thin front running band early tomorrow starting now at 9z and continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 A little moderate stuff just south of DC so far. Temps are good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 still going at 45, lighter snow vs 6z. And then the next panel comes out and we're back on heavier returns...not HEAVY, but you know..heavier. Less aerial coverage tho of the heavier stuff. DC is under it, but mt psu is lighter rn than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Moderate for all at 48 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 still going at 51, back to light. 850s are fine...freezing is S and E of DC by like 15 miles 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Done at 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I’m intrigued by the heights continuing to trend higher out front. Could see this trending up a bit more as we get to game time. 2-4” for most from HGR to BWI on a lot of these runs. I’ll take my chances with QPF modeled over us for 24-30 hrs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Kids are totally getting a snow day Tuesday. And I guess it’s semi-legit. Roads in Columbia are being brined today. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 area wide 2-4, with 4 to 6 over Northern neck area 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 24 hrs of light to mod snow? I will take it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, DDweatherman said: I’m intrigued by the heights continuing to trend higher out front. Could see this trending up a bit more as we get to game time. 2-4” for most from HGR to BWI on a lot of these runs. I’ll take my chances with QPF modeled over us for 24-30 hrs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, pazzo83 said: 24 hrs of light to mod snow? I will take it! Remember to wipe your snowboard every 6 hours and mound up all the snow on it and measure in that pile! 7 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, WxUSAF said: Thanks for sharing. Tonight’s pre game time runs could be interesting for some added moisture and slightly more amped coastal if things look more like the NAM/RGEM combo. Euro actually looked headed this way too at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Dang, nice run for central VA. Gimme dat. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Ok bailing over to the LR thread to shit up that one with pbp for our next blizzard on the 19/20 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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