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Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: The Return of Hope??


stormtracker
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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


It could be ptype BS, but it’s “ice” for everyone outside the mountains. Rain as you go SE of DC

c8b1386f7f8c6deeab9e4e0f890eb42f.jpg

Flips back to a little snow at 54

That outcome will have better chance of closings around DC.  Ice during commute is no bueno

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

The low levels are torched during the most critical 6 hours when the best precip is in the area. Ugh. That’s not something I expected with an arctic front situation. Another chapter in my book maybe!  
IMG_0948.thumb.png.f530ab4a194e73f235aad820644f78c2.png

Well, that’s a new and surprising development with this system. Maybe I should not be so surprised

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4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


It could be ptype BS, but it’s “ice” for everyone outside the mountains. Rain as you go SE of DC

c8b1386f7f8c6deeab9e4e0f890eb42f.jpg

Flips back to a little snow at 54

As someone who really wants to miss school this week I see this outcome as an absolute win

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1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

Wait- so snow is starting tomorrow rather than Monday night?  But more Monday night?  I would like to request  24 hours.  Monday night to Tuesday night works. Can we just get 1 SNOW day??  It’s been 2 years. 
 

thanks, 

Desperate Fairfax Co Teacher

Per NAM, starts at like 4pm tomm and wraps up around  5pm Tuesday

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The low levels are torched during the most critical 6 hours when the best precip is in the area. Ugh. That’s not something I expected with an arctic front situation. Another chapter in my book maybe!  
IMG_0948.thumb.png.f530ab4a194e73f235aad820644f78c2.png

How and why would that happen (well, besides it is DC)? Unless the 'low' amps like crazy to draw Atlantic in, I can't see it...

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, it's a slight worry creeping in.  It can't ever be simple for us!  It's still gonna snow so I'm ok

At least the HRRR doesn’t show that 925 warm layer. For now. Either the Nam is onto something or it’s too warm

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

cb4fa962fc20ec3f24d4ee9b6ace607f.jpg

3k doesn’t do anything with the coastal.

Also… snow squall warnings out for our northern zones right now. Don’t forget to look out the window

This seems like a pretty significant improvement!

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17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Well, that’s a new and surprising development with this system. Maybe I should not be so surprised

CMC has been doing that but limiting the warming to the Fall Line east. There is even a subtle trend for low level warming over the last few runs of the Euro, but to a much lesser degree.

1705406400-BQ3MtWg9g94.png

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6 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

How and why would that happen (well, besides it is DC)? Unless the 'low' amps like crazy to draw Atlantic in, I can't see it...

You’re in a primo spot for this. Hoping that band doesn’t shift too far nw away  from just south of you down this way. Kinda been right on the edge.

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19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Is this not the coastal taking over and pushing some warm air in, for lack of knowledge of a better term?

Yes but it’s a 1010 low that starts to amplify off the outer banks…so umm…. I have a longer reply in the panic room.  It’s just one NAM run so no reason to over react I guess  

 

IMG_0950.png

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but it’s a 1010 low that starts to amplify off the outer banks…so umm…. I have a longer reply in the panic room.  It’s just one NAM run so no reason to over react I guess  

 

IMG_0950.png

You’re spot on with the thoughts however. Seeing that makes the NW zones seem favored of course with the “enhancement” portion on Tuesday. Tomorrow afternoon and evening’s into the overnight for the first 1-2” should be good thermals for all.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

GFS is super solid for the region. It needs to hold. Biggest run of our miserable, snow starved lives coming soon!

I need the atmosphere to remember it can snow here and hope that once it recovers that memory it can go ahead and assign other snows to here.

this is completely scientific and no one need check my math…

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