Scraff Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Precip on the doorstep at 10pm Tuesday....precip is oriented a bit better...SW to NE. Seeing some positive changes...again not the "F" word worthy, but could be a little more precip...let's see I got some F words if you don’t bring this home… 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 36 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I always thought it was a preview of the next cycle so that’s good to know. Always seemed like a good run of SREF lead to the next run if NAM being good. Yea I always have seen the SREF as a predictor of how much wetter the next NAM run would be. Also the Rap model that is like an ancient dinosaur of a model good luck with that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: What’s the bar for folks on this? 2-3” would def be a win 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Its a better run bust out your drink of choice, folks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2024 Author Share Posted January 14, 2024 Back edge in sight at 21z Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2024 Author Share Posted January 14, 2024 Widespread 2 to 4 for everyone in this subforum 20 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: As recently as 2013, 2014, and 2015 they obliterated the DC area in snowfall. What’s happen since 2016 imo is almost all our snow has come from lucky hits by progressive boundary waves during short periods when we got an epo pna ridge. Those don’t favor Winchester. They downslope in those plus they are kinda random and usually if you’re on the cold side of the boundary it’s cold enough. Being NW and higher offers no real advantage in those. So recently the difference is less. I think if we go back to a +pdo with more coastal storms and inside runners they will go back to doing better again. Ninja’d by PSU. Was just gonna say… when the overall pattern gets back to classic miller a noreasters and coastal bombs / huggers, Winchester will once again destroy IAD in snowfall. Been a very weird last 7 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Widespread 2 to 4 for everyone in this subforum 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 I'm taking a 2-4 inch event all day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 We are finally trending up as a storm nears instead of down. I like this. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 1 minute ago, Snowman. said: I'm taking a 2-4 inch event all day Yep. That’s 3.1 I did not have before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 It’s a hold, or even slightly better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 I noticed last couple runs are looking a lil better on the modeling. If that keeps up next day or 2, we maybe looking at a decent snow event. Now if we can only get the one for the 20th to trend better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: We are finally trending up as a storm nears instead of down. I like this. Well I mean...seeing as we were almost at flurries, the place to go was up, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Just now, BristowWx said: Yep. That’s 3.1 I did not have before. 3-3.5” to get me to 6-6.5” for the season heading into prime climo and a solid looking longwave pattern? Why not. Sign me up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 QPF is just a bit better pretty much everywhere. trend = friend 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Just now, Deck Pic said: 2.5" imby, over 2.5" would be awesome. 1.25"-2.5" would be a bit of a bummer but still fun. Anything under an inch is unacceptable yep we need to break the streak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Gfs?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Just now, DCAlexandria said: Gfs? . Widespread 2-4" of cold smoke. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 2 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: QPF is just a bit better pretty much everywhere. trend = friend My yard went from 0.00” to 0.25”. Nice to see that Shenandoah Valley snow hole go away. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Did we just get NAM’d for an event 90% of us gave up on? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 1-3 on 00z CMC FWIW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What’s the bar for folks on this? U/O 3" Expecting Trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 If we keep trending up to storm time, we can get back to how it was 3 days ago 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 maybe there is some merit in starting a 2nd thread if things aren't looking great 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 9 minutes ago, Fozz said: Did we just get NAM’d for an event 90% of us gave up on? I live to get NAM’d. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: If we keep trending up to storm time, we can get back to how it was 3 days ago It would be pretty epic to see models 48 hour us back into a legit coastal but honestly, I’d take this current solution of a prolonged light to occasionally moderate snow event. It’s going to look and feel wintry out there and the metros should hopefully finally break their streaks. Let’s get everyone on the board at this point. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: well less than 90%. Why would someone give up on something like 4-5 days out? Emotions and the ridiculous theory that it can’t snow here anymore lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 While y'all are getting NAMed, I'm geting... uh... RAPPED. (Had to be careful there.) Snow ongoing at this point. 4 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 0z GFS snow depth has it hitting up to 2" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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