psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, high risk said: That's the key point. It's badly out of date and wasn't a great system when it was "in date". A high res ensemble seems like a good idea in theory. Have they tried to develop a system that actually works? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Definitely not. IAD gets way more precip than I do. And it is no warmer. yeah you are in some weird rain shadow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Definitely not. IAD gets way more precip than I do. And it is no warmer. 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It didn’t snow anywhere in 2020 or 2023. And 2022 were mostly SWFE which aren’t great for the Shenandoah valley. But they can do way better in some years. But I don’t think it’s as reliable as it was 20 years ago. Maybe things’ve changed now, but when I was growing up here in Vienna, I would always hear about the “far N & W” suburbs like winchester getting a ton more snow. They were killing it and I was jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: A high res ensemble seems like a good idea in theory. Have they tried to develop a system that actually works? The RRFS (Rapid Refresh Forecast System, a 3 km ensemble, is being developed. It hasn't been easy, because it has to be at least as good as the HREF to replace it, and it's far easier to get meaningful spread from a a system with multiple different models (HREF) than a system with just a single model core. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 We drove out to Winchester a couple weeks ago (a helpful middle meeting ground between Staunton and DC to pick up my daughter when she stays with my parents lol), and I was surprised that the elevation on the east side of the BR was basically the same as the west heading towards Winchester. The valley is so much lower around Winchester than around Staunton and points south. In Rockbridge County it actually goes above 1800' until it starts descending as you head towards Roanoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 So far, some very subtle changes in the GFS. A little more digging on the backside of the trof and very slight higher heights out in front. Don't get yer hopes up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 59 minutes ago, nj2va said: NAM’d It is in line with the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I like the GFS at the H5 at 36 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Precip on the doorstep at 10pm Tuesday....precip is oriented a bit better...SW to NE. Seeing some positive changes...again not the "F" word worthy, but could be a little more precip...let's see 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Maybe things’ve changed now, but when I was growing up here in Vienna, I would always hear about the “far N & W” suburbs like winchester getting a ton more snow. They were killing it and I was jealous. As recently as 2013, 2014, and 2015 they obliterated the DC area in snowfall. What’s happen since 2016 imo is almost all our snow has come from lucky hits by progressive boundary waves during short periods when we got an epo pna ridge. Those don’t favor Winchester. They downslope in those plus they are kinda random and usually if you’re on the cold side of the boundary it’s cold enough. Being NW and higher offers no real advantage in those. So recently the difference is less. I think if we go back to a +pdo with more coastal storms and inside runners they will go back to doing better again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So far, some very subtle changes in the GFS. A little more digging on the backside of the trof and very slight higher heights out in front. Don't get yer hopes up What’s the bar for folks on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, psuhoffman said: What’s the bar for folks on this? 3” and I’m tickled pink 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Its a better run 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, psuhoffman said: What’s the bar for folks on this? I want 2" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Precip on the doorstep at 10pm Tuesday....precip is oriented a bit better...SW to NE. Seeing some positive changes...again not the "F" word worthy, but could be a little more precip...let's see I got some F words if you don’t bring this home… 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 36 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I always thought it was a preview of the next cycle so that’s good to know. Always seemed like a good run of SREF lead to the next run if NAM being good. Yea I always have seen the SREF as a predictor of how much wetter the next NAM run would be. Also the Rap model that is like an ancient dinosaur of a model good luck with that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: What’s the bar for folks on this? 2-3” would def be a win 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Its a better run bust out your drink of choice, folks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Back edge in sight at 21z Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Widespread 2 to 4 for everyone in this subforum 20 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: As recently as 2013, 2014, and 2015 they obliterated the DC area in snowfall. What’s happen since 2016 imo is almost all our snow has come from lucky hits by progressive boundary waves during short periods when we got an epo pna ridge. Those don’t favor Winchester. They downslope in those plus they are kinda random and usually if you’re on the cold side of the boundary it’s cold enough. Being NW and higher offers no real advantage in those. So recently the difference is less. I think if we go back to a +pdo with more coastal storms and inside runners they will go back to doing better again. Ninja’d by PSU. Was just gonna say… when the overall pattern gets back to classic miller a noreasters and coastal bombs / huggers, Winchester will once again destroy IAD in snowfall. Been a very weird last 7 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Widespread 2 to 4 for everyone in this subforum 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I'm taking a 2-4 inch event all day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Widespread 2 to 4 for everyone in this subforum 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 We are finally trending up as a storm nears instead of down. I like this. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: good ratios....like 13-14:1....this run is pretty sexy 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Snowman. said: I'm taking a 2-4 inch event all day Yep. That’s 3.1 I did not have before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 It’s a hold, or even slightly better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I noticed last couple runs are looking a lil better on the modeling. If that keeps up next day or 2, we maybe looking at a decent snow event. Now if we can only get the one for the 20th to trend better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: We are finally trending up as a storm nears instead of down. I like this. Well I mean...seeing as we were almost at flurries, the place to go was up, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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