Weather Will Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 WB 3K NAM which only goes to 7am Tues. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 if the precip from the coastal came northwest like 75 miles and we had a 2-part event....that would be sick....lets do it 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 6 minutes ago, high risk said: The main focus is on us getting NAM'ed, but I'll just make a quick point that this isn't really true. The SREF is a mix of 13 ARW and 13 NMMB runs using a mix of RAP, NAM, and GFS initial conditions (and multiple physics). Yes, half of the members have the same model core as the NAM, and roughly 1/3 use NAM initial conditions, but it's not a NAM ensemble. Is the 21z SREF run off the 18z models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Somebody else can post the pretty maps, but snow depth map is 2to4. Other maps might be higher who cares...i'm sweeping the board every 30 minutes 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: if the precip from the coastal came northwest like 75 miles and we had a 2-part event....that would be sick....lets do it I believe this is what the 18z NAM showed and the reason it dropped 4-8" across DC/BWI metro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 21z SREF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I believe this is what the 18z NAM showed and the reason it dropped 4-8" across DC/BWI metroYeah and I don’t think it would take much or a nudge to get that back?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 18z and 00z nam seemed to be in good agreement up until hour 60 with the first wave, then diverges apart with the second one. Either way, I’ll take what the first wave dropped verbatim. Anything after is a bonus 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Terpeast said: 18z and 00z nam seemed to be in good agreement up until hour 60 with the first wave, then diverges apart with the second one. Either way, I’ll take what the first wave dropped verbatim. Anything after is a bonus Id take 3-4” of fluff and solid cold to follow all day long. It’ll be a very wintry 24 hours out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 0z ICON currently running I'm tossing any model than gives me less than 2" 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Just now, Deck Pic said: 0z ICON currently running I'm tossing any model than gives me less than 2" Agreed. Like I said earlier, if we can pull 2-4, imma treat it like it's Jan 1996 coming 13 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 14 minutes ago, high risk said: The main focus is on us getting NAM'ed, but I'll just make a quick point that this isn't really true. The SREF is a mix of 13 ARW and 13 NMMB runs using a mix of RAP, NAM, and GFS initial conditions (and multiple physics). Yes, half of the members have the same model core as the NAM, and roughly 1/3 use NAM initial conditions, but it's not a NAM ensemble. Ahh gotcha. Knew there was crossover. Thought I read somewhere NAM ensemble was the Sref but I must have misread it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Is the 21z SREF run off the 18z models? YES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Hmm 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Not bad for a day's work. Better than the alternative anyway. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, high risk said: YES Thanks. So essentially the sref is the last guidance of the previous cycle. Some think it’s a preview of the next cycle lol. Frankly with so many high res models now, NAM12, nam3, rgem, hrdrps, fv3, ARW1, ARW2, HRRR, Im not sure how much the SREF is going to tell us we didn’t already know. Especially given their outdated since I don’t think they’ve been updated in a long time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 21z RAP out to 51hrs was pretty juicy.. had a wide area of 6-8" from TN to WV. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Damn, if we didn't have the coastal jump, RGEM would have been great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Damn, if we didn't have the coastal jump, RGEM would have been great The characteristics of a Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks. So essentially the sref is the last guidance of the previous cycle. Some think it’s a preview of the next cycle lol. Frankly with so many high res models now, NAM12, nam3, rgem, hrdrps, fv3, ARW1, ARW2, HRRR, Im not sure how much the SREF is going to tell us we didn’t already know. Especially given their outdated since I don’t think they’ve been updated in a long time. I always thought it was a preview of the next cycle so that’s good to know. Always seemed like a good run of SREF lead to the next run if NAM being good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 We all should have been smart enough to know that arctic front passages of the kind we’re about to experience (without any sort of clipper wave associated) don’t make it across the mountains in any real way. Talking about tomorrow’s fake snow squall. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 We all should have been smart enough to know that arctic front passages of the kind we’re about to experience (without any sort of clipper wave associated) don’t make it across the mountains in any real way. Talking about tomorrow’s fake snow squall. . 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, paulythegun said: We all should have been smart enough to know that arctic front passages of the kind we’re about to experience (without any sort of clipper wave associated) don’t make it across the mountains in any real way. Talking about tomorrow’s fake snow squall. ok thx Anyway, ICON is fine: 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 23 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Not bad for a day's work. Better than the alternative anyway. I like how it increased the last couple frames. Hope that trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: ok thx Anyway, ICON is fine: Icon got better too!. Hope that trend continues on all models next couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: An hour doesn’t sound that bad actually. Seems common around the greater region. Thought about Winchester at one point. Hour and 15 without traffic. Still thinking that over a bit. Doesn’t snow there either anymore it seems. Stay where you are. Trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Stay where you are. Trust me. Not much better out your way than around here? (Close to IAD) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks. So essentially the sref is the last guidance of the previous cycle. Some think it’s a preview of the next cycle lol. Frankly with so many high res models now, NAM12, nam3, rgem, hrdrps, fv3, ARW1, ARW2, HRRR, Im not sure how much the SREF is going to tell us we didn’t already know. Especially given their outdated since I don’t think they’ve been updated in a long time. That's the key point. It's badly out of date and wasn't a great system when it was "in date". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Not much better out your way than around here? (Close to IAD) Definitely not. IAD gets way more precip than I do. And it is no warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Not much better out your way than around here? (Close to IAD) It didn’t snow anywhere in 2020 or 2023. And 2022 were mostly SWFE which aren’t great for the Shenandoah valley. But they can do way better in some years. But I don’t think it’s as reliable as it was 20 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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