Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: The Return of Hope??

[DCAlexandria]

I’ll say it. Nam’D


.

[nj2va]

For this storm, that’s a NAMing

[yoda]

00z 3km NAM has 2" of snow at DCA by 03z TUES and still snowing nicely

[stormtracker]

At we're at 60 and will be for a while because the NAM is run on a Pentium II

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

At we're at 60 and will be for a while because the NAM is run on a Pentium II

It’s soooo slow 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

60hr.. it's still snowing back to KY

https://ibb.co/pJdmv8V

[Terpeast]

Nice to see the NAM but PV (the site) seems to be slow tonight

[87storms]

Looks like it's essentially a frontal boundary with a few pieces of energy riding the wave...with the strength of each vort determining the outcome.  I'm expecting "periods of light snow" in the forecast for 24 hours.

[stormtracker]

ok, we're back...snowing still at 66

[primetime]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Parr's Ridge has a local maximum just north of Manchester into southern York County, PA. 

Gotcha. I drive to Manchester quite a but and I just never really noticed the elevation change. Interesting to know.

[stormtracker]

Light stuff rocking on at...69hour

[baltosquid]

If this weird boundary setup comes to pass, a good 24 hours of snow to get 2-4 sounds pretty. 

[pazzo83]

Just now, baltosquid said:

If this weird boundary setup comes to pass, a good 24 hours of snow to get 2-4 sounds pretty. 

i'll take that in a heartbeat

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Light stuff rocking on at...69hour

Wow  longer duration event than i thought!

[stormtracker]

wrapping it up around hour 75

[yoda]

00z NAM has QPF max of 0.5" in DC/BWI metro

[stormtracker]

Somebody else can post the pretty maps, but snow depth map is 2to4.  Other maps might be higher

[high risk]

46 minutes ago, jayyy said:

For sure. Gotta think there’s another NAMing inbound since it’s the Nams ensemble. 

        The main focus is on us getting NAM'ed, but I'll just make a quick point that this isn't really true.    The SREF is a mix of 13 ARW and 13 NMMB runs using a mix of RAP, NAM, and GFS initial conditions (and multiple physics).     Yes, half of the members have the same model core as the NAM, and roughly 1/3 use NAM initial conditions, but it's not a NAM ensemble.

[nj2va]

NAM’d

[WEATHER53]

Been talking about this 18 hour+ duration snd like others said cold up top so fluffy and dark and it could be .30/31 and we would do fine but it will be colder. 

[Weather Will]

WB 3K NAM which only goes to 7am Tues.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, high risk said:

        The main focus is on us getting NAM'ed, but I'll just make a quick point that this isn't really true.    The SREF is a mix of 13 ARW and 13 NMMB runs using a mix of RAP, NAM, and GFS initial conditions (and multiple physics).     Yes, half of the members have the same model core as the NAM, and roughly 1/3 use NAM initial conditions, but it's not a NAM ensemble.

Is the 21z SREF run off the 18z models?  

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

if the precip from the coastal came northwest like 75 miles and we had a 2-part event....that would be sick....lets do it

 

I believe this is what the 18z NAM showed and the reason it dropped 4-8" across DC/BWI metro

[DCAlexandria]

I believe this is what the 18z NAM showed and the reason it dropped 4-8" across DC/BWI metro

Yeah and I don’t think it would take much or a nudge to get that back?


.

[Terpeast]

18z and 00z nam seemed to be in good agreement up until hour 60 with the first wave, then diverges apart with the second one. Either way, I’ll take what the first wave dropped verbatim. Anything after is a bonus

[jayyy]

Just now, Terpeast said:

18z and 00z nam seemed to be in good agreement up until hour 60 with the first wave, then diverges apart with the second one. Either way, I’ll take what the first wave dropped verbatim. Anything after is a bonus

Id take 3-4” of fluff and solid cold to follow all day long. It’ll be a very wintry 24 hours out there. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Deck Pic said:

0z ICON currently running

I'm tossing any model than gives me less than 2"

 

Agreed.  Like I said earlier, if we can pull 2-4, imma treat it like it's Jan 1996 coming

[jayyy]

14 minutes ago, high risk said:

        The main focus is on us getting NAM'ed, but I'll just make a quick point that this isn't really true.    The SREF is a mix of 13 ARW and 13 NMMB runs using a mix of RAP, NAM, and GFS initial conditions (and multiple physics).     Yes, half of the members have the same model core as the NAM, and roughly 1/3 use NAM initial conditions, but it's not a NAM ensemble.

Ahh gotcha. Knew there was crossover. Thought I read somewhere NAM ensemble was the Sref but I must have misread it. 

[high risk]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Is the 21z SREF run off the 18z models?  

         YES

[psuhoffman]

Hmm