Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: The Return of Hope??

[konksw]

1 minute ago, Ravens94 said:

Like that trend. 

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

hr 48 will be the make or break..

Better

[stormtracker]

Nice solid area of precip over the area at 51 hours...light/mod

[Buddy1987]

NAM trying to hook up southern portion of forum here. Liking how the trajectory is pointed directly toward ROA and CHO minimum 

48 looks even better as that band pivots toward I-81/64/66 really hoping for most to get in on 2-4”

[yoda]

I think DGZ looks good to at hr 48 and 51?  @WxUSAF is that right looking at the soundings in DC metro?

[stormtracker]

Precip extent is wider. going from SW to NE..still light/mod at 60

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Snow depth is 2"+ over a good portion of the area 54hr.. still snowing

[yoda]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Precip extent is wider. going from SW to NE..still light/mod at 60

Hopefully we are able to get enhancement from the coastal like 18z showed in the next few frames

[DCAlexandria]

I’ll say it. Nam’D


.

[nj2va]

For this storm, that’s a NAMing

[Deck Pic]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nice solid area of precip over the area at 51 hours...light/mod

it comes in quite a bit earlier than the globals...we're snowing by like 4-5 pm

[yoda]

00z 3km NAM has 2" of snow at DCA by 03z TUES and still snowing nicely

[stormtracker]

At we're at 60 and will be for a while because the NAM is run on a Pentium II

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

At we're at 60 and will be for a while because the NAM is run on a Pentium II

It’s soooo slow 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

60hr.. it's still snowing back to KY

https://ibb.co/pJdmv8V

[Terpeast]

Nice to see the NAM but PV (the site) seems to be slow tonight

[87storms]

Looks like it's essentially a frontal boundary with a few pieces of energy riding the wave...with the strength of each vort determining the outcome.  I'm expecting "periods of light snow" in the forecast for 24 hours.

[stormtracker]

ok, we're back...snowing still at 66

[primetime]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Parr's Ridge has a local maximum just north of Manchester into southern York County, PA. 

Gotcha. I drive to Manchester quite a but and I just never really noticed the elevation change. Interesting to know.

[stormtracker]

Light stuff rocking on at...69hour

[baltosquid]

If this weird boundary setup comes to pass, a good 24 hours of snow to get 2-4 sounds pretty. 

[pazzo83]

Just now, baltosquid said:

If this weird boundary setup comes to pass, a good 24 hours of snow to get 2-4 sounds pretty. 

i'll take that in a heartbeat

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Light stuff rocking on at...69hour

Wow  longer duration event than i thought!

[stormtracker]

wrapping it up around hour 75

[Deck Pic]

3k doesnt look that great, but it truncates at 60- tho it doesnt look like much after this panel

[yoda]

00z NAM has QPF max of 0.5" in DC/BWI metro

[stormtracker]

Somebody else can post the pretty maps, but snow depth map is 2to4.  Other maps might be higher

[high risk]

46 minutes ago, jayyy said:

For sure. Gotta think there’s another NAMing inbound since it’s the Nams ensemble. 

        The main focus is on us getting NAM'ed, but I'll just make a quick point that this isn't really true.    The SREF is a mix of 13 ARW and 13 NMMB runs using a mix of RAP, NAM, and GFS initial conditions (and multiple physics).     Yes, half of the members have the same model core as the NAM, and roughly 1/3 use NAM initial conditions, but it's not a NAM ensemble.

[nj2va]

NAM’d

[WEATHER53]

Been talking about this 18 hour+ duration snd like others said cold up top so fluffy and dark and it could be .30/31 and we would do fine but it will be colder.