stormtracker Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 Wrapping up at 21z tomm...18z had it out of the area before then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Really nice run for the cities. 4 plus for you guys. Sucks out here. Still no clue what is going to happen at gametime. I don’t trust the nam at all lol. It is not to be relied upon for nailing down where a precip max is. It’s much better at identifying the orientation of the precip and that there “will” be a max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 Just now, clskinsfan said: Nah. I think you guys end up doing well with this one. Just going off of radar. We never do as well as progged. There's going to be an issue. You'll stay firmly all snow and will measure more, trust me. It's cool tho. It's a sacrifice I'm willing to make. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: The models giving the I-81 crew anywhere from 0-6 inches, lol. Gotta love the mayhem 24 hours out… Thankfully we get in on some of the later action. Seems like a little weirder evolution, but it’s the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, DarkSharkWX said: That is most definitely a NAMing. 5”? Let’s gooooooooo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: Thankfully we get in on some of the later action. Seems like a little weirder evolution, but it’s the NAM. It’s also painting ~14:1 ratios for our area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 It actually shows 2-4".. ratios have it changing over to ice briefly along I-95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Why havent WWAs been hoisted yet? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 So NCEP ran the 1.33km Nam over our area at 0z. It only goes to 36 and it's still snowing when it cuts off ETA - the contour over DC and NW of there is 0.25" - 0.50". You can see the little stripe of 0.5"+ over Catoctins 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It actually shows 2-4".. ratios have it changing over to ice briefly along I-95. ratios are way higher this event i dont see a need to use positive snow depth change lol, it mixes for like 2 seconds before coming back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: So NCEP ran the 1.33km Nam over our area at 0z. It only goes to 36 and it's still snowing when it cuts off that exists? link doesnt work for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: Why havent WWAs been hoisted yet? They will probably put WSWatches up north of Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: Thankfully we get in on some of the later action. Seems like a little weirder evolution, but it’s the NAM. All the models have this cut out between Cumberland and Hagerstown. It's snowing west of us and East of us for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Nice runs so far. I think the 12k is overdone, 3k more realistic. But growing more confident for an area wide 2-4"er with someone getting 5"+ 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said: that exists? link doesnt work for me I believe they only run it here when there is a storm. Usually it's for fire. And we dont burn. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=FIREWX&area=CONUS-AK&ps=area# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Expanding 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Nice runs so far. I think the 12k is overdone, 3k more realistic. But growing more confident for an area wide 2-4"er with someone getting 5"+ yeah...3k is in line with the others.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Wrapping up at 21z tomm...18z had it out of the area before then You mean Tuesday? C’mon man 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: Why havent WWAs been hoisted yet? . read the LWX AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 14 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z 3K NAM, nice for all Freeze it right there. No more changes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, Deck Pic said: yeah...3k is in line with the others.... Love being in the middle of the stripe. Don’t have to sweat every 15 mile shift. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: You mean Tuesday? C’mon man He’s still drunk from brunch that ended like 2 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: All the models have this cut out between Cumberland and Hagerstown. It's snowing west of us and East of us for hours. It COULD happen. Bet it doesn’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: Why havent WWAs been hoisted yet? . Their discussion said they would likely wait until late this evening. Has to be coming soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 That is most definitely a NAMing. 5”? Let’s gooooooooo.NAMd with 6+. Even if I get half, I’m happy. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Their discussion said they would likely wait until late this evening. Has to be coming soon. Probably deciding if they should pull trigger on Winter Storm Warning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Probably deciding if they should pull trigger on Winter Storm WarningWarning for 2-4” over 12 hours? Eh. Idk about that. Perhaps for some localized areas but that’s a tough call to make. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 The short-term discussion was updated (pulled out the important piece) - guessing this means they'll be hoisted with the early morning update. THE SECOND PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM MID MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SECOND PERIOD OF SNOW. WHILE INCONSISTENT IN DEPICTION IN THE MODELS, A MORE PERSISTENT HEAVIER BAND CLOUD RESULT IN A STRIPE OF UP TO 6 INCHES, ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WARM AIR ALOFT DOES BEGIN TO INTRUDE LATER MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF I-95. THIS MAY RESULT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION, OR EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE IF A DRY SLOT LESSENS PRECIPITATION RATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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