Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: The Return of Hope??

[NorthArlington101]

  On 1/14/2024 at 5:56 PM, umdterps29 said:

damn. Bullish

[stormtracker]

10pm, light snow over the area.   H5 just shows a hair of a difference from 6z...pretty much stable between the runs

[stormtracker]

10am Tuesday, snow, freezing line dissecting DC., I-95..850s plenty cold 

[Terpeast]

  On 1/14/2024 at 5:57 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

damn. Bullish

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Wow, bullish. I was thinking 1-2” locally 3”

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's the RAP, but it does put 4" down north of Baltimore

[stormtracker]

So far, looks like a hold.  Same as 6z

[LeesburgWx]

ALEET!

DT’s jaw just dropped to the floor 

[Buddy1987]

  On 1/14/2024 at 6:02 PM, stormtracker said:

So far, looks like a hold.  Same as 6z

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Time for Hi-Res models big dawg! 

[stormtracker]

Literally a carbon copy of 6z..just slightly colder with sfc freezing line.

[stormtracker]

Done at 7pm Tuesday  2 to 4 area wide

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

  On 1/14/2024 at 6:03 PM, stormtracker said:

Literally a carbon copy of 6z..just slightly colder with sfc freezing line.

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We take…lock it in.  Snow on the ground and cold temps. 

[Its a Breeze]

Perfect event for a 'Snow Advisory'

Why on Earth did they get rid of those?

[Terpeast]

  On 1/14/2024 at 6:04 PM, stormtracker said:

Done at 7pm Tuesday  2 to 4 area wide

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As I mentioned, a 2-4”er area wide without thermal issues even SE of 95 would be a great win and a nice compromise. Amping it further would be too greedy and get some of us in trouble

[nj2va]

Looks awesome.  LFG!

[stormtracker]

I should make more threads in the future.  I mean since yall give negative superstitious credit, might as well get the fake good credit.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

  On 1/14/2024 at 6:08 PM, stormtracker said:

I should make more threads in the future

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And definitely a lot more FOLKS! and JAWS! to go along with those!

[Benjamn3]

  On 1/14/2024 at 1:42 PM, Buddy1987 said:

Still probably a little too early for the HRRR but damn does it look great. 

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Fair point my man. Really hoping in SWVA we can snag some precip. I’m west of the blue ridge so I’m hoping I’m sitting pretty. Won’t know till it’s on the ground though. 

[WxUSAF]

  On 1/14/2024 at 6:08 PM, nj2va said:

Looks awesome.  LFG!

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Even has the “surprise” mount @psuhoffmanto Catoctins jack. And the mini-jack over DCA will obvs get displaced to MBY. Let’s ride.

[wxmeddler]

  On 1/14/2024 at 6:06 PM, Terpeast said:

As I mentioned, a 2-4”er area wide without thermal issues even SE of 95 would be a great win and a nice compromise. Amping it further would be too greedy and get some of us in trouble

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Should be pretty easy to keep up with too, -SN at >.03"/hr liquid.
Snow TV for everyone is a good time.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Impressive how similar that is to the first NBM map!

[yoda]

Accumulation tonight?

Zone Forecast Product
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1232 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

DCZ001-142100-
District of Columbia-
Including the city of Washington
1232 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

.THIS AFTERNOON...Mostly sunny with isolated snow showers. Windy
with highs in the lower 40s. Temperature falling into the mid
30s. West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of
snow 20 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a slight chance of snow in the
evening, then cloudy with snow likely after midnight. Snow
accumulation around an inch. Lows in the lower 20s. Northwest
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph, diminishing to around
5 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 60 percent.
.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
snow. Additional snow accumulation around an inch possible. Highs
in the lower 30s. West winds around 5 mph, becoming southeast
around 5 mph in the afternoon.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Snow likely in the evening, then snow after
midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance
of snow 90 percent.
.TUESDAY...Snow likely in the morning. Highs in the lower 30s.
North winds around 5 mph, becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph in the
afternoon. Chance of snow 60 percent.

[jayyy]

  On 1/14/2024 at 6:08 PM, stormtracker said:

I should make more threads in the future.  I mean since yall give negative superstitious credit, might as well get the fake good credit.

What we need to do is create threads and then a second thread when everything goes to shit on models at the day 4-5 range. That’s the key!


.

[WhiteoutMD]

  On 1/14/2024 at 6:16 PM, yoda said:

Accumulation tonight?

Zone Forecast Product
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1232 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

DCZ001-142100-
District of Columbia-
Including the city of Washington
1232 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

.THIS AFTERNOON...Mostly sunny with isolated snow showers. Windy
with highs in the lower 40s. Temperature falling into the mid
30s. West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of
snow 20 percent.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a slight chance of snow in the
evening, then cloudy with snow likely after midnight. Snow
accumulation around an inch. Lows in the lower 20s. Northwest
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph, diminishing to around
5 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 60 percent.
.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
snow. Additional snow accumulation around an inch possible. Highs
in the lower 30s. West winds around 5 mph, becoming southeast
around 5 mph in the afternoon.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Snow likely in the evening, then snow after
midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance
of snow 90 percent.
.TUESDAY...Snow likely in the morning. Highs in the lower 30s.
North winds around 5 mph, becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph in the
afternoon. Chance of snow 60 percent.

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What are they looking at?

[jayyy]

  On 1/14/2024 at 6:10 PM, WxUSAF said:

Even has the “surprise” mount [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention]to Catoctins jack. And the mini-jack over DCA will obvs get displaced to MBY. Let’s ride.

Seems like a realistic depiction accounting for better lift / temps up this way but having the qpf jack closer to 95. Agreed though. More likely you see that 3-4” in that secondary jack than DC metro but who knows.


.

[jayyy]

  On 1/14/2024 at 6:03 PM, LeesburgWx said:

ALEET!
DT’s jaw just dropped to the floor 

Didn’t DT give up on this 24 hours ago? I told y’all. It’s the weather version of the Jim Cramer effect… predict the opposite of what DT&JB predict and you’re typically golden. “My jaw is on the floor. How dare models show snow in DC and BAL”. Gimme a break DT

[PCT_ATC]

  On 1/14/2024 at 6:21 PM, jayyy said:

Didn’t DT give up on this 24 hours ago? I told y’all. It’s the weather version of the Jim Cramer effect… predict the opposite of what DT&JB predict and you’re typically golden. “My jaw is on the floor. How dare models show snow in DC and BAL”. Gimme a break DT

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ummm most people in here drew the same conclusion only 24 hours earlier than DT.  check the panic room

[87storms]

Looks like by midnight, the whole area is under light/steady snow.  DC showing a coating already.  0.2-0.4" precip areawide, lifting out by noon.

[understudyhero]

  On 1/14/2024 at 6:30 PM, 87storms said:

Looks like by midnight, the whole area is under light/steady snow.  DC showing a coating already.  0.2-0.4" precip areawide, lifting out by noon.

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Noon Tuesday correct?

[87storms]

  On 1/14/2024 at 6:35 PM, understudyhero said:

Noon Tuesday correct?

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Yea, looks like an overnight through Tuesday morning event, per 12z Euro.

[jayyy]

  On 1/14/2024 at 5:57 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

damn. Bullish

Agree with this forecast wholeheartedly. Think they did a good job being patient and letting things unfold before jumping the gun in either direction. Models have been consistent showing that “tongue” of enhanced qpf from DC NE up to BAL, so this looks spot on. I really don’t think temps will be an issue at all for 99% of us. Virga is annoying but it will cool the column. Dynamic cooling should fairly easily win out. Doubt the metros see much mixing, if any, especially in Baltimore.