stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Back edge at 21z. Somebody else post the purty snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Outcome would seem to favor NW in terms of heaviest snow. We'll see. It could be ptype BS, but it’s “ice” for everyone outside the mountains. Rain as you go SE of DCFlips back to a little snow at 54 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: yeah, was right..NW areas heaviest. Surprise Surprise. I mean, I'd still take it in a heartbeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Buying!! lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Wait- so snow is starting tomorrow rather than Monday night? But more Monday night? I would like to request 24 hours. Monday night to Tuesday night works. Can we just get 1 SNOW day?? It’s been 2 years. thanks, Desperate Fairfax Co Teacher 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The low levels are torched during the most critical 6 hours when the best precip is in the area. Ugh. That’s not something I expected with an arctic front situation. Another chapter in my book maybe! 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris_B Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It could be ptype BS, but it’s “ice” for everyone outside the mountains. Rain as you go SE of DC Flips back to a little snow at 54 That outcome will have better chance of closings around DC. Ice during commute is no bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The low levels are torched during the most critical 6 hours when the best precip is in the area. Ugh. That’s not something I expected with an arctic front situation. Another chapter in my book maybe! Is this not the coastal taking over and pushing some warm air in, for lack of knowledge of a better term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, psuhoffman said: The low levels are torched during the most critical 6 hours when the best precip is in the area. Ugh. That’s not something I expected with an arctic front situation. Another chapter in my book maybe! Well, that’s a new and surprising development with this system. Maybe I should not be so surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 NW creep evident on NAM, really need to minimize the dry slot and hope we verify a tad colder if 95 is going to hit the higher end here… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It could be ptype BS, but it’s “ice” for everyone outside the mountains. Rain as you go SE of DC Flips back to a little snow at 54 As someone who really wants to miss school this week I see this outcome as an absolute win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: Wait- so snow is starting tomorrow rather than Monday night? But more Monday night? I would like to request 24 hours. Monday night to Tuesday night works. Can we just get 1 SNOW day?? It’s been 2 years. thanks, Desperate Fairfax Co Teacher Per NAM, starts at like 4pm tomm and wraps up around 5pm Tuesday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The low levels are torched during the most critical 6 hours when the best precip is in the area. Ugh. That’s not something I expected with an arctic front situation. Another chapter in my book maybe! How and why would that happen (well, besides it is DC)? Unless the 'low' amps like crazy to draw Atlantic in, I can't see it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Well, that’s a new and surprising development with this system. Maybe I should not be so surprised Yeah, it's a slight worry creeping in. It can't ever be simple for us! It's still gonna snow so I'm ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 If i recall nam has a lil bit of a warm bias 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, it's a slight worry creeping in. It can't ever be simple for us! It's still gonna snow so I'm ok At least the HRRR doesn’t show that 925 warm layer. For now. Either the Nam is onto something or it’s too warm 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3k doesn’t do anything with the coastal. Also… snow squall warnings (jk, just SWS’s) out for our northern zones right now. Don’t forget to look out the window 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 3k doesn’t do anything with the coastal. Also… snow squall warnings out for our northern zones right now. Don’t forget to look out the window This seems like a pretty significant improvement! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3” is looking like the number guys. Covers the grass fully and 24 hours of cold snow tv. I’m pushing chips all in 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I feel like if anything the NAM has just been oscillating w/ respect to that warmth, hard to call it a consistent strong trend. Hopefully just a blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Cold air inbound - it's 19F now at Garrett Co. Airport. Hard to see a warm nose survive the inbound air mass, but we are DC so anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 17 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Well, that’s a new and surprising development with this system. Maybe I should not be so surprised CMC has been doing that but limiting the warming to the Fall Line east. There is even a subtle trend for low level warming over the last few runs of the Euro, but to a much lesser degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 6 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: How and why would that happen (well, besides it is DC)? Unless the 'low' amps like crazy to draw Atlantic in, I can't see it... You’re in a primo spot for this. Hoping that band doesn’t shift too far nw away from just south of you down this way. Kinda been right on the edge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, RDM said: Cold air inbound - it's 19F now at Garrett Co. Airport. Hard to see a warm nose survive the inbound air mass, but we are DC so anything is possible. The legit cold comes in just behind this wave. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Is this not the coastal taking over and pushing some warm air in, for lack of knowledge of a better term? Yes but it’s a 1010 low that starts to amplify off the outer banks…so umm…. I have a longer reply in the panic room. It’s just one NAM run so no reason to over react I guess 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 GFS is super solid for the region. It needs to hold. Biggest run of our miserable, snow starved lives coming soon! 8 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yes but it’s a 1010 low that starts to amplify off the outer banks…so umm…. I have a longer reply in the panic room. It’s just one NAM run so no reason to over react I guess You’re spot on with the thoughts however. Seeing that makes the NW zones seem favored of course with the “enhancement” portion on Tuesday. Tomorrow afternoon and evening’s into the overnight for the first 1-2” should be good thermals for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, CAPE said: GFS is super solid for the region. It needs to hold. Biggest run of our miserable, snow starved lives coming soon! I need the atmosphere to remember it can snow here and hope that once it recovers that memory it can go ahead and assign other snows to here. this is completely scientific and no one need check my math… 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yes but it’s a 1010 low that starts to amplify off the outer banks…so umm…. I have a longer reply in the panic room. It’s just one NAM run so no reason to over react I guess Majority of the precip is before we lose the thermals though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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