psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:20 PM, stormtracker said: ok, fills in and still going at 48..looks like some coastal enhancement..nothing super heavy tho Expand Yes front is slightly less positive tilt and this allows the second wave to amplify a bit more and pull the boundary back southeast a bit just in time to save DC. This is a nice little bonus surprise trending. The big storm 3rd wave idea is dead dead. But guidance is bringing back the idea of wave 2 enhancement and along with the lead frontal wave the 1-2 combo could end up a nice event. A HECS by 2020s standards! 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Artic front appears to have crossed Frostburg. Mesonet site shows a drop in temperatures. Already flirting with the teens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2024 Author Share Posted January 14, 2024 Outcome would seem to favor NW in terms of heaviest snow. We'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:24 PM, stormtracker said: interesting since it seems cold enough at that time frameWarm layer at 925 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2024 Author Share Posted January 14, 2024 Back edge at 21z. Somebody else post the purty snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:25 PM, stormtracker said: Outcome would seem to favor NW in terms of heaviest snow. We'll see. It could be ptype BS, but it’s “ice” for everyone outside the mountains. Rain as you go SE of DCFlips back to a little snow at 54 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2024 Author Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:29 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Expand yeah, was right..NW areas heaviest. Surprise Surprise. I mean, I'd still take it in a heartbeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:29 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Expand Buying!! lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Wait- so snow is starting tomorrow rather than Monday night? But more Monday night? I would like to request 24 hours. Monday night to Tuesday night works. Can we just get 1 SNOW day?? It’s been 2 years. thanks, Desperate Fairfax Co Teacher 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 The low levels are torched during the most critical 6 hours when the best precip is in the area. Ugh. That’s not something I expected with an arctic front situation. Another chapter in my book maybe! 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris_B Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:28 PM, NorthArlington101 said: It could be ptype BS, but it’s “ice” for everyone outside the mountains. Rain as you go SE of DC Flips back to a little snow at 54 Expand That outcome will have better chance of closings around DC. Ice during commute is no bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:31 PM, psuhoffman said: The low levels are torched during the most critical 6 hours when the best precip is in the area. Ugh. That’s not something I expected with an arctic front situation. Another chapter in my book maybe! Is this not the coastal taking over and pushing some warm air in, for lack of knowledge of a better term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:31 PM, psuhoffman said: The low levels are torched during the most critical 6 hours when the best precip is in the area. Ugh. That’s not something I expected with an arctic front situation. Another chapter in my book maybe! Expand Well, that’s a new and surprising development with this system. Maybe I should not be so surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 NW creep evident on NAM, really need to minimize the dry slot and hope we verify a tad colder if 95 is going to hit the higher end here… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:28 PM, NorthArlington101 said: It could be ptype BS, but it’s “ice” for everyone outside the mountains. Rain as you go SE of DC Flips back to a little snow at 54 Expand As someone who really wants to miss school this week I see this outcome as an absolute win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2024 Author Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:31 PM, snowmagnet said: Wait- so snow is starting tomorrow rather than Monday night? But more Monday night? I would like to request 24 hours. Monday night to Tuesday night works. Can we just get 1 SNOW day?? It’s been 2 years. thanks, Desperate Fairfax Co Teacher Expand Per NAM, starts at like 4pm tomm and wraps up around 5pm Tuesday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:31 PM, psuhoffman said: The low levels are torched during the most critical 6 hours when the best precip is in the area. Ugh. That’s not something I expected with an arctic front situation. Another chapter in my book maybe! Expand How and why would that happen (well, besides it is DC)? Unless the 'low' amps like crazy to draw Atlantic in, I can't see it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2024 Author Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:32 PM, Terpeast said: Well, that’s a new and surprising development with this system. Maybe I should not be so surprised Expand Yeah, it's a slight worry creeping in. It can't ever be simple for us! It's still gonna snow so I'm ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 If i recall nam has a lil bit of a warm bias 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:35 PM, stormtracker said: Yeah, it's a slight worry creeping in. It can't ever be simple for us! It's still gonna snow so I'm ok Expand At least the HRRR doesn’t show that 925 warm layer. For now. Either the Nam is onto something or it’s too warm 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 3k doesn’t do anything with the coastal. Also… snow squall warnings (jk, just SWS’s) out for our northern zones right now. Don’t forget to look out the window 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:36 PM, NorthArlington101 said: 3k doesn’t do anything with the coastal. Also… snow squall warnings out for our northern zones right now. Don’t forget to look out the window Expand This seems like a pretty significant improvement! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 3” is looking like the number guys. Covers the grass fully and 24 hours of cold snow tv. I’m pushing chips all in 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 I feel like if anything the NAM has just been oscillating w/ respect to that warmth, hard to call it a consistent strong trend. Hopefully just a blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Cold air inbound - it's 19F now at Garrett Co. Airport. Hard to see a warm nose survive the inbound air mass, but we are DC so anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:32 PM, Terpeast said: Well, that’s a new and surprising development with this system. Maybe I should not be so surprised Expand CMC has been doing that but limiting the warming to the Fall Line east. There is even a subtle trend for low level warming over the last few runs of the Euro, but to a much lesser degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:34 PM, wxdude64 said: How and why would that happen (well, besides it is DC)? Unless the 'low' amps like crazy to draw Atlantic in, I can't see it... Expand You’re in a primo spot for this. Hoping that band doesn’t shift too far nw away from just south of you down this way. Kinda been right on the edge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:39 PM, RDM said: Cold air inbound - it's 19F now at Garrett Co. Airport. Hard to see a warm nose survive the inbound air mass, but we are DC so anything is possible. Expand The legit cold comes in just behind this wave. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:32 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Is this not the coastal taking over and pushing some warm air in, for lack of knowledge of a better term? Expand Yes but it’s a 1010 low that starts to amplify off the outer banks…so umm…. I have a longer reply in the panic room. It’s just one NAM run so no reason to over react I guess 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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