caviman2201 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Are we actually on the precipice of a honest-to-god 2-4" run of the mill event? Did Lucy finally decide to let us kick the damn ball even if she deflated it so it didn't go very far?? Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 nice uptrend! 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 4” in Westminster would be double my snow for last year and this year combined. I’m in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 24 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: nice uptrend! I would say at this point there is more upside than downside. I think the chances of a widespread 3-5" event are better than the chances of <1" 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Frontogenesis with a narrow ribbon of enhanced isentropic ascent always seem to overperform with events like these when the Arctic chill follows suit. 23 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 52 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Are we actually on the precipice of a honest-to-god 2-4" run of the mill event? Did Lucy finally decide to let us kick the damn ball even if she deflated it so it didn't go very far?? Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Hope has definitely returned to the Washington Metropolitan Region. It gets even better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Latest WB SREF 3Z which uses 0Z data. 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 WB 6Z 12 and 3K NAM 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 At least we are just talking snow amounts and not sweating temps. I will enjoy every inch of my inch. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 WB 6Z GFS 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 WB 6Z GFSSoldSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 That shows 4.2 inches for Dale City. We take. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I am shocked by the AFD for Blacksburg waking up. Doesn’t even mention the word snow for Monday night Tuesday time frame only “precipitation”. One of the more odd short term discussions I’ve seen from them. All short term model guidance looks great for good part of the sub forum. That’s ok though every time they don’t honk we end over achieving. Let’s reel in an accumulating snowfall for the first time in a long time!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Latest NBM 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 If the 6z GFS has the right idea this could end up a 2-4" deal across the region. Surface temps are dicey on the CMC SE of the fall line with precip ongoing Tuesday, and the NAMs bring the 850 0c line right up to the fall line. Could be mixy/end as rain for eastern areas in that case. GFS and Euro imply all snow with temps around 32-33 towards the end for the lowlands. NW areas probably end up with better ratios with temps staying a bit colder. PSU will probably get his 6. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 6z GEFS pretty closely matches the op, which is expected especially at this range. Looking at the individual members, I would probably rather be on the NW side of that max snow area. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z GEFS pretty closely matches the op, which is expected especially at this range. Looking at the individual members, I would probably rather be on the NW side of that max snow area. Are there any silly upside members in the bunch? 5 inch lollies? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 6z Euro 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: 6z Euro Dare I say it keeps getting a little better. It looks like we avoid a shit out and it will snow more than 15min at 3am while mixed with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Snow squall warnings up in PA this morning. Love to see it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said: I am shocked by the AFD for Blacksburg waking up. Doesn’t even mention the word snow for Monday night Tuesday time frame only “precipitation”. One of the more odd short term discussions I’ve seen from them. All short term model guidance looks great for good part of the sub forum. That’s ok though every time they don’t honk we end over achieving. Let’s reel in an accumulating snowfall for the first time in a long time!! I’ve noticed this as well, it seems like this MET is new to the office. I don’t think this person likes commenting on snow, I noticed this on the last disturbance last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Not going to lie, 3-4” would be huge. And all models mostly trending that way. Let’s get 1-2 more good trends today and make it 3”-6” 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 If the 6z GFS has the right idea this could end up a 2-4" deal across the region. Surface temps are dicey on the CMC SE of the fall line with precip ongoing Tuesday, and the NAMs bring the 850 0c line right up to the fall line. Could be mixy/end as rain for eastern areas in that case. GFS and Euro imply all snow with temps around 32-33 towards the end for the lowlands. NW areas probably end up with better ratios with temps staying a bit colder. PSU will probably get his 6.Could be a mini jack somewhere in between. NW enough for better temps, SE enough for precip. Dare I say HoCo- BalCo area? Been looking that way on a lot of guidance over the past 24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Could be a mini jack somewhere in between. NW enough for better temps, SE enough for precip. Dare I say HoCo- BalCo area? Been looking that way on a lot of guidance over the past 24 hours. Agree, the jack might be just NW/NE of Balt. My area will be cold enough but maybe too far W to jack. Still seems good for 1-3” if the models are right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 For full situational awareness… 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 12 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: For full situational awareness… Reasonable for a change. Hate when I agree with him, makes me feel dirty. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 It’s not a real storm until Ellinwood has MBY in grey. 3 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: It’s not a real storm until Ellinwood has MBY in grey. Grey’d with Mixing draped across MBY. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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