Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: The Return of Hope??

[StormyClearweather]

Not bad for a day's work. Better than the alternative anyway. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

         YES

Thanks. So essentially the sref is the last guidance of the previous cycle. Some think it’s a preview of the next cycle lol. Frankly with so many high res models now, NAM12, nam3, rgem, hrdrps, fv3, ARW1, ARW2, HRRR, Im not sure how much the SREF is going to tell us we didn’t already know. Especially given their outdated since I don’t think they’ve been updated in a long time. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21z RAP out to 51hrs was pretty juicy.. had a wide area of 6-8" from TN to WV. 

[stormtracker]

Damn, if we didn't have the coastal jump, RGEM would have been great

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Damn, if we didn't have the coastal jump, RGEM would have been great

The characteristics of a Miller B

[osfan24]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks. So essentially the sref is the last guidance of the previous cycle. Some think it’s a preview of the next cycle lol. Frankly with so many high res models now, NAM12, nam3, rgem, hrdrps, fv3, ARW1, ARW2, HRRR, Im not sure how much the SREF is going to tell us we didn’t already know. Especially given their outdated since I don’t think they’ve been updated in a long time. 

I always thought it was a preview of the next cycle so that’s good to know. Always seemed like a good run of SREF lead to the next run if NAM being good.

[paulythegun]

We all should have been smart enough to know that arctic front passages of the kind we’re about to experience (without any sort of clipper wave associated) don’t make it across the mountains in any real way. Talking about tomorrow’s fake snow squall.

[DCAlexandria]

We all should have been smart enough to know that arctic front passages of the kind we’re about to experience (without any sort of clipper wave associated) don’t make it across the mountains in any real way. Talking about tomorrow’s fake snow squall.

.

[StormyClearweather]

5 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

We all should have been smart enough to know that arctic front passages of the kind we’re about to experience (without any sort of clipper wave associated) don’t make it across the mountains in any real way. Talking about tomorrow’s fake snow squall.

ok thx

Anyway, ICON is fine:

[winter_warlock]

23 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Not bad for a day's work. Better than the alternative anyway. 

I like how it increased the last couple  frames. Hope that trend continues

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

ok thx

Anyway, ICON is fine:

Icon got better too!. Hope that trend continues on all models next couple days

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

An hour doesn’t sound that bad actually.  Seems common around the greater region.  Thought about Winchester at one point. Hour and 15 without traffic.  Still thinking that over a bit.  Doesn’t snow there either anymore it seems.  

Stay where you are.  Trust me.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Stay where you are.  Trust me.

Not much better out your way than around here? (Close to IAD)

[high risk]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks. So essentially the sref is the last guidance of the previous cycle. Some think it’s a preview of the next cycle lol. Frankly with so many high res models now, NAM12, nam3, rgem, hrdrps, fv3, ARW1, ARW2, HRRR, Im not sure how much the SREF is going to tell us we didn’t already know. Especially given their outdated since I don’t think they’ve been updated in a long time. 

        That's the key point.    It's badly out of date and wasn't a great system when it was "in date".

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Not much better out your way than around here? (Close to IAD)

Definitely not.  IAD gets way more precip than I do.  And it is no warmer. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Not much better out your way than around here? (Close to IAD)

It didn’t snow anywhere in 2020 or 2023. And 2022 were mostly SWFE which aren’t great for the Shenandoah valley. But they can do way better in some years.  But I don’t think it’s as reliable as it was 20 years ago. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

        That's the key point.    It's badly out of date and wasn't a great system when it was "in date".

A high res ensemble seems like a good idea in theory. Have they tried to develop a system that actually works?  

[pazzo83]

3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Definitely not.  IAD gets way more precip than I do.  And it is no warmer. 

yeah you are in some weird rain shadow.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Definitely not.  IAD gets way more precip than I do.  And it is no warmer. 

 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It didn’t snow anywhere in 2020 or 2023. And 2022 were mostly SWFE which aren’t great for the Shenandoah valley. But they can do way better in some years.  But I don’t think it’s as reliable as it was 20 years ago. 

Maybe things’ve changed now, but when I was growing up here in Vienna, I would always hear about the “far N & W” suburbs like winchester getting a ton more snow. They were killing it and I was jealous. 

[high risk]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

A high res ensemble seems like a good idea in theory. Have they tried to develop a system that actually works?  

        The RRFS (Rapid Refresh Forecast System, a 3 km ensemble, is being developed.    It hasn't been easy, because it has to be at least as good as the HREF to replace it, and it's far easier to get meaningful spread from a a system with multiple different models (HREF) than a system with just a single model core.

[pazzo83]

We drove out to Winchester a couple weeks ago (a helpful middle meeting ground between Staunton and DC to pick up my daughter when she stays with my parents lol), and I was surprised that the elevation on the east side of the BR was basically the same as the west heading towards Winchester.  The valley is so much lower around Winchester than around Staunton and points south.  In Rockbridge County it actually goes above 1800' until it starts descending as you head towards Roanoke.

[stormtracker]

So far, some very subtle changes in the GFS.  A little more digging on the backside of the trof and very slight higher heights out in front.   Don't get yer hopes up

[Kevin Reilly]

59 minutes ago, nj2va said:

NAM’d

It is in line with the Ukie

[Interstate]

I like the GFS at the H5 at 36

[stormtracker]

Precip on the doorstep at 10pm Tuesday....precip is oriented a bit better...SW to NE.  Seeing some positive changes...again not the "F" word worthy, but could be a little more precip...let's see

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

 

Maybe things’ve changed now, but when I was growing up here in Vienna, I would always hear about the “far N & W” suburbs like winchester getting a ton more snow. They were killing it and I was jealous. 

As recently as 2013, 2014, and 2015 they obliterated the DC area in snowfall. What’s happen since 2016 imo is almost all our snow has come from lucky hits by progressive boundary waves during short periods when we got an epo pna ridge. Those don’t favor Winchester. They downslope in those plus they are kinda random and usually if you’re on the cold side of the boundary it’s cold enough. Being NW and higher offers no real advantage in those.  So recently the difference is less. 
 

I think if we go back to a +pdo with more coastal storms and inside runners they will go back to doing better again. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So far, some very subtle changes in the GFS.  A little more digging on the backside of the trof and very slight higher heights out in front.   Don't get yer hopes up

What’s the bar for folks on this? 

[ravensrule]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

What’s the bar for folks on this? 

3” and I’m tickled pink

[stormtracker]

Its a better run

[yoda]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

What’s the bar for folks on this? 

I want 2"