StormyClearweather Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Not bad for a day's work. Better than the alternative anyway. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:57 AM, high risk said: YES Expand Thanks. So essentially the sref is the last guidance of the previous cycle. Some think it’s a preview of the next cycle lol. Frankly with so many high res models now, NAM12, nam3, rgem, hrdrps, fv3, ARW1, ARW2, HRRR, Im not sure how much the SREF is going to tell us we didn’t already know. Especially given their outdated since I don’t think they’ve been updated in a long time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 21z RAP out to 51hrs was pretty juicy.. had a wide area of 6-8" from TN to WV. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2024 Author Share Posted January 14, 2024 Damn, if we didn't have the coastal jump, RGEM would have been great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 3:07 AM, stormtracker said: Damn, if we didn't have the coastal jump, RGEM would have been great Expand The characteristics of a Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 3:02 AM, psuhoffman said: Thanks. So essentially the sref is the last guidance of the previous cycle. Some think it’s a preview of the next cycle lol. Frankly with so many high res models now, NAM12, nam3, rgem, hrdrps, fv3, ARW1, ARW2, HRRR, Im not sure how much the SREF is going to tell us we didn’t already know. Especially given their outdated since I don’t think they’ve been updated in a long time. Expand I always thought it was a preview of the next cycle so that’s good to know. Always seemed like a good run of SREF lead to the next run if NAM being good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 We all should have been smart enough to know that arctic front passages of the kind we’re about to experience (without any sort of clipper wave associated) don’t make it across the mountains in any real way. Talking about tomorrow’s fake snow squall. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 3:12 AM, paulythegun said: We all should have been smart enough to know that arctic front passages of the kind we’re about to experience (without any sort of clipper wave associated) don’t make it across the mountains in any real way. Talking about tomorrow’s fake snow squall. . 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 3:12 AM, paulythegun said: We all should have been smart enough to know that arctic front passages of the kind we’re about to experience (without any sort of clipper wave associated) don’t make it across the mountains in any real way. Talking about tomorrow’s fake snow squall. Expand ok thx Anyway, ICON is fine: 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:58 AM, StormyClearweather said: Not bad for a day's work. Better than the alternative anyway. Expand I like how it increased the last couple frames. Hope that trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 3:19 AM, StormyClearweather said: ok thx Anyway, ICON is fine: Expand Icon got better too!. Hope that trend continues on all models next couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 12:55 AM, BristowWx said: An hour doesn’t sound that bad actually. Seems common around the greater region. Thought about Winchester at one point. Hour and 15 without traffic. Still thinking that over a bit. Doesn’t snow there either anymore it seems. Expand Stay where you are. Trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 3:29 AM, EastCoast NPZ said: Stay where you are. Trust me. Expand Not much better out your way than around here? (Close to IAD) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 3:02 AM, psuhoffman said: Thanks. So essentially the sref is the last guidance of the previous cycle. Some think it’s a preview of the next cycle lol. Frankly with so many high res models now, NAM12, nam3, rgem, hrdrps, fv3, ARW1, ARW2, HRRR, Im not sure how much the SREF is going to tell us we didn’t already know. Especially given their outdated since I don’t think they’ve been updated in a long time. Expand That's the key point. It's badly out of date and wasn't a great system when it was "in date". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 3:32 AM, Terpeast said: Not much better out your way than around here? (Close to IAD) Expand Definitely not. IAD gets way more precip than I do. And it is no warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 3:32 AM, Terpeast said: Not much better out your way than around here? (Close to IAD) Expand It didn’t snow anywhere in 2020 or 2023. And 2022 were mostly SWFE which aren’t great for the Shenandoah valley. But they can do way better in some years. But I don’t think it’s as reliable as it was 20 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 3:35 AM, high risk said: That's the key point. It's badly out of date and wasn't a great system when it was "in date". Expand A high res ensemble seems like a good idea in theory. Have they tried to develop a system that actually works? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 3:35 AM, EastCoast NPZ said: Definitely not. IAD gets way more precip than I do. And it is no warmer. Expand yeah you are in some weird rain shadow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 3:35 AM, EastCoast NPZ said: Definitely not. IAD gets way more precip than I do. And it is no warmer. Expand On 1/14/2024 at 3:36 AM, psuhoffman said: It didn’t snow anywhere in 2020 or 2023. And 2022 were mostly SWFE which aren’t great for the Shenandoah valley. But they can do way better in some years. But I don’t think it’s as reliable as it was 20 years ago. Expand Maybe things’ve changed now, but when I was growing up here in Vienna, I would always hear about the “far N & W” suburbs like winchester getting a ton more snow. They were killing it and I was jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 3:37 AM, psuhoffman said: A high res ensemble seems like a good idea in theory. Have they tried to develop a system that actually works? Expand The RRFS (Rapid Refresh Forecast System, a 3 km ensemble, is being developed. It hasn't been easy, because it has to be at least as good as the HREF to replace it, and it's far easier to get meaningful spread from a a system with multiple different models (HREF) than a system with just a single model core. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 We drove out to Winchester a couple weeks ago (a helpful middle meeting ground between Staunton and DC to pick up my daughter when she stays with my parents lol), and I was surprised that the elevation on the east side of the BR was basically the same as the west heading towards Winchester. The valley is so much lower around Winchester than around Staunton and points south. In Rockbridge County it actually goes above 1800' until it starts descending as you head towards Roanoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2024 Author Share Posted January 14, 2024 So far, some very subtle changes in the GFS. A little more digging on the backside of the trof and very slight higher heights out in front. Don't get yer hopes up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:43 AM, nj2va said: NAM’d Expand It is in line with the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 I like the GFS at the H5 at 36 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2024 Author Share Posted January 14, 2024 Precip on the doorstep at 10pm Tuesday....precip is oriented a bit better...SW to NE. Seeing some positive changes...again not the "F" word worthy, but could be a little more precip...let's see 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 3:39 AM, Terpeast said: Maybe things’ve changed now, but when I was growing up here in Vienna, I would always hear about the “far N & W” suburbs like winchester getting a ton more snow. They were killing it and I was jealous. Expand As recently as 2013, 2014, and 2015 they obliterated the DC area in snowfall. What’s happen since 2016 imo is almost all our snow has come from lucky hits by progressive boundary waves during short periods when we got an epo pna ridge. Those don’t favor Winchester. They downslope in those plus they are kinda random and usually if you’re on the cold side of the boundary it’s cold enough. Being NW and higher offers no real advantage in those. So recently the difference is less. I think if we go back to a +pdo with more coastal storms and inside runners they will go back to doing better again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 3:43 AM, stormtracker said: So far, some very subtle changes in the GFS. A little more digging on the backside of the trof and very slight higher heights out in front. Don't get yer hopes up Expand What’s the bar for folks on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 3:47 AM, psuhoffman said: What’s the bar for folks on this? Expand 3” and I’m tickled pink 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2024 Author Share Posted January 14, 2024 Its a better run 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 3:47 AM, psuhoffman said: What’s the bar for folks on this? Expand I want 2" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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