DCAlexandria Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 I’ll say it. Nam’D. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 For this storm, that’s a NAMing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 00z 3km NAM has 2" of snow at DCA by 03z TUES and still snowing nicely 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2024 Author Share Posted January 14, 2024 At we're at 60 and will be for a while because the NAM is run on a Pentium II 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:32 AM, stormtracker said: At we're at 60 and will be for a while because the NAM is run on a Pentium II Expand It’s soooo slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 60hr.. it's still snowing back to KY https://ibb.co/pJdmv8V 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Nice to see the NAM but PV (the site) seems to be slow tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Looks like it's essentially a frontal boundary with a few pieces of energy riding the wave...with the strength of each vort determining the outcome. I'm expecting "periods of light snow" in the forecast for 24 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2024 Author Share Posted January 14, 2024 ok, we're back...snowing still at 66 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primetime Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 1:27 AM, Eskimo Joe said: Parr's Ridge has a local maximum just north of Manchester into southern York County, PA. Expand Gotcha. I drive to Manchester quite a but and I just never really noticed the elevation change. Interesting to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2024 Author Share Posted January 14, 2024 Light stuff rocking on at...69hour 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 If this weird boundary setup comes to pass, a good 24 hours of snow to get 2-4 sounds pretty. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:38 AM, baltosquid said: If this weird boundary setup comes to pass, a good 24 hours of snow to get 2-4 sounds pretty. Expand i'll take that in a heartbeat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:37 AM, stormtracker said: Light stuff rocking on at...69hour Expand Wow longer duration event than i thought! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2024 Author Share Posted January 14, 2024 wrapping it up around hour 75 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 00z NAM has QPF max of 0.5" in DC/BWI metro 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2024 Author Share Posted January 14, 2024 Somebody else can post the pretty maps, but snow depth map is 2to4. Other maps might be higher 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 1:52 AM, jayyy said: For sure. Gotta think there’s another NAMing inbound since it’s the Nams ensemble. Expand The main focus is on us getting NAM'ed, but I'll just make a quick point that this isn't really true. The SREF is a mix of 13 ARW and 13 NMMB runs using a mix of RAP, NAM, and GFS initial conditions (and multiple physics). Yes, half of the members have the same model core as the NAM, and roughly 1/3 use NAM initial conditions, but it's not a NAM ensemble. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 NAM’d 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Been talking about this 18 hour+ duration snd like others said cold up top so fluffy and dark and it could be .30/31 and we would do fine but it will be colder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 WB 3K NAM which only goes to 7am Tues. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:41 AM, high risk said: The main focus is on us getting NAM'ed, but I'll just make a quick point that this isn't really true. The SREF is a mix of 13 ARW and 13 NMMB runs using a mix of RAP, NAM, and GFS initial conditions (and multiple physics). Yes, half of the members have the same model core as the NAM, and roughly 1/3 use NAM initial conditions, but it's not a NAM ensemble. Expand Is the 21z SREF run off the 18z models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:48 AM, Deck Pic said: if the precip from the coastal came northwest like 75 miles and we had a 2-part event....that would be sick....lets do it Expand I believe this is what the 18z NAM showed and the reason it dropped 4-8" across DC/BWI metro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:50 AM, yoda said: I believe this is what the 18z NAM showed and the reason it dropped 4-8" across DC/BWI metroYeah and I don’t think it would take much or a nudge to get that back?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 18z and 00z nam seemed to be in good agreement up until hour 60 with the first wave, then diverges apart with the second one. Either way, I’ll take what the first wave dropped verbatim. Anything after is a bonus 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:53 AM, Terpeast said: 18z and 00z nam seemed to be in good agreement up until hour 60 with the first wave, then diverges apart with the second one. Either way, I’ll take what the first wave dropped verbatim. Anything after is a bonus Expand Id take 3-4” of fluff and solid cold to follow all day long. It’ll be a very wintry 24 hours out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2024 Author Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:55 AM, Deck Pic said: 0z ICON currently running I'm tossing any model than gives me less than 2" Expand Agreed. Like I said earlier, if we can pull 2-4, imma treat it like it's Jan 1996 coming 13 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:41 AM, high risk said: The main focus is on us getting NAM'ed, but I'll just make a quick point that this isn't really true. The SREF is a mix of 13 ARW and 13 NMMB runs using a mix of RAP, NAM, and GFS initial conditions (and multiple physics). Yes, half of the members have the same model core as the NAM, and roughly 1/3 use NAM initial conditions, but it's not a NAM ensemble. Expand Ahh gotcha. Knew there was crossover. Thought I read somewhere NAM ensemble was the Sref but I must have misread it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 2:49 AM, psuhoffman said: Is the 21z SREF run off the 18z models? Expand YES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 Hmm 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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