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Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: Do we finally win or get Saltburned?


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19 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Thanks.  I do look in.  At least we have two possible events to track.  You've got a lot of pros and good enthusiasts so I'm not sure what I could add. 

Great to hear from you!!  10 years ago you were a prominent member of this board and your highly educated common sense touch was always very impressive to me. I miss those times.

Please visit often and all the best to You and your family.

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1 minute ago, Heisy said:


Ugh, eps has them pretty disjointed. Can see our wave near Pa here. There are a bunch of members that redevelop the low on time to scrape E MD, SE pa into SNEeef1300e79223d07a53f780c493dec63.jpg
.1f51fe1b476aa0c602cfab79b77ecf1f.jpg


.

At least they moved west. Better than 0z

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ECMWF and its ensembles have always seemed to be very gradual movers relative to the GFS and especially the GEM. Not surprising it will take more than one run to reel it in if that is indeed in the cards. It’s a positive run, don’t let the doomium win just yet

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Empirical analysis incoming (and just an opinion), but we’re typically not good at big snow on the front end of a cold snap bc the systems are usually NS dominant. We are, however, good at seeing flakes fly when we get an arctic front followed by a trackable system. If it’s just a quick hitting cold snap, that’s different, but this seems like (at minimum) a temporary pattern change.

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10 minutes ago, stormy said:

An ancient Chinese proverb says that "a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step"

The Euro took a step today but the GFS also took a step. Which one is in the right direction??

The GEM believes it knows with its giant step!!

There is also an ancient Mid-Atlantic proverb: "a journey of a thousand miles is necessary to find snow." 

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3pm AFD from LWX

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Below normal temperatures and the threat for wintry precipitation
headline the medium range. There is medium confidence in well below
normal temperatures and dangerously cold wind chills, but the threat
of snow or wintry precipitation remains highly uncertain.

Anomalous ridging over the Polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere
will force Arctic air southward across much of the CONUS for most of
next week. The brunt of the cold will be on our doorstep locally
early in the week, before spreading over the rest of the area by the
middle of next week. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure - driven by
a shortwave currently trapped in a cyclonic gyre over NW Canada -
will likely induce an area of low pressure that will track from the
Mid-South to near the Carolina or Mid-Atlantic Coast late Monday
through early Wednesday. Exact timing remains uncertain, and timing
of this wave with added energy from the Arctic intrusion will be
crucial in determining the extent of any snow/wintry precip impacts
across the Mid-Atlantic. Deterministic guidance has been attempting
to come into somewhat better agreement, but the Euro (through 06z)
remains a flatter/drier outlier. For this reason, ensemble means and
probabilities have remained nearly steady from values 24 hours ago.

As energy for this system ejects into the NW CONUS and is better
sampled, guidance should get a better handle on the outcome over the
next 1 to 2 days.

Following this system, strong winds coupled with well below normal
temperatures will likely result in wind chills in the single digits
on either size of zero by early Wednesday morning, with even colder
values over the higher terrain. Winds will abate a bit by Wednesday
night into Thursday, though below normal temperatures will persist.

By the end of next week, the aforementioned low will be absorbed in
a developing cutoff near Newfoundland. This, coupled with ridging
near the West Coast, and lower heights in between over the OH/TN
Valley, are a more traditional setup for wintry weather locally.
Therefore, the threat of wintry precipitation may re-appear by the
end of next week.

&&
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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Blacksburg AFD playing it cautious with the 50/50 chance here because of model inconsistency. You all think 0z provides any clarity or probably not until 12z earliest tomorrow?

I’m thinking 12z tomorrow for much better clarity. But hopefully 0z will give us a clue whether the 12z runs today are onto a trend 

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1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I know the NAM isn't ideal, but so far at 18z it's digging a bit more in the west. That's the trend we need to look for. Hudson bay vortex is in a slightly more favorable spot. small steps

https://ibb.co/jH7WWDc

Yep. The vortex is further west than 12Z as well. It is going to be a good run imo. 

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