stormy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 19 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Thanks. I do look in. At least we have two possible events to track. You've got a lot of pros and good enthusiasts so I'm not sure what I could add. Great to hear from you!! 10 years ago you were a prominent member of this board and your highly educated common sense touch was always very impressive to me. I miss those times. Please visit often and all the best to You and your family. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Ugh, eps has them pretty disjointed. Can see our wave near Pa here. There are a bunch of members that redevelop the low on time to scrape E MD, SE pa into SNE . . At least they moved west. Better than 0z 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: At least they moved west. Better than 0z 12z EPS brought the “blue” back west to the eastern shore & NE MD. 6z barely had the blue on coastal NJ. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 ECMWF and its ensembles have always seemed to be very gradual movers relative to the GFS and especially the GEM. Not surprising it will take more than one run to reel it in if that is indeed in the cards. It’s a positive run, don’t let the doomium win just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 31 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Thanks. I do look in. At least we have two possible events to track. You've got a lot of pros and good enthusiasts so I'm not sure what I could add. You will always have something to add, Wes. Always appreciate you chiming in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 It’s Friday, happy hour cometh. LFG! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The latest blend for the early week storm. Still solid. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, CAPE said: The latest blend for the early week storm. Still solid. i definitely lost an inch lol but it looks 3x better than last weekends garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: The latest blend for the early week storm. Still solid. Hopefully it holds here, would like to prevent last week's storm where this just kept bleeding totals until gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Empirical analysis incoming (and just an opinion), but we’re typically not good at big snow on the front end of a cold snap bc the systems are usually NS dominant. We are, however, good at seeing flakes fly when we get an arctic front followed by a trackable system. If it’s just a quick hitting cold snap, that’s different, but this seems like (at minimum) a temporary pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 An ancient Chinese proverb says that "a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step" The Euro took a step today but the GFS also took a step. Which one is in the right direction?? The GEM believes it knows with its giant step!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Ji said: i definitely lost an inch lol but it looks 3x better than last weekends garbage Considering recent Euro runs and the latest GFS run have not exactly been stellar, not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Mark Margavage Twitter Met is on board 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 10 minutes ago, stormy said: An ancient Chinese proverb says that "a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step" The Euro took a step today but the GFS also took a step. Which one is in the right direction?? The GEM believes it knows with its giant step!! There is also an ancient Mid-Atlantic proverb: "a journey of a thousand miles is necessary to find snow." 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Mark Margavage Twitter Met is on board Lol dude uses the CFS for forecasting 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: The latest blend for the early week storm. Still solid. where do i Where do I sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 You guys dont love this look? https://ibb.co/gyHKtGf It's close to a big storm That Aleutian island block.. if it doesn't go anywhere.. should help send the moisture further NW (slightly more amped SE ridge) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3pm AFD from LWX .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Below normal temperatures and the threat for wintry precipitation headline the medium range. There is medium confidence in well below normal temperatures and dangerously cold wind chills, but the threat of snow or wintry precipitation remains highly uncertain. Anomalous ridging over the Polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere will force Arctic air southward across much of the CONUS for most of next week. The brunt of the cold will be on our doorstep locally early in the week, before spreading over the rest of the area by the middle of next week. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure - driven by a shortwave currently trapped in a cyclonic gyre over NW Canada - will likely induce an area of low pressure that will track from the Mid-South to near the Carolina or Mid-Atlantic Coast late Monday through early Wednesday. Exact timing remains uncertain, and timing of this wave with added energy from the Arctic intrusion will be crucial in determining the extent of any snow/wintry precip impacts across the Mid-Atlantic. Deterministic guidance has been attempting to come into somewhat better agreement, but the Euro (through 06z) remains a flatter/drier outlier. For this reason, ensemble means and probabilities have remained nearly steady from values 24 hours ago. As energy for this system ejects into the NW CONUS and is better sampled, guidance should get a better handle on the outcome over the next 1 to 2 days. Following this system, strong winds coupled with well below normal temperatures will likely result in wind chills in the single digits on either size of zero by early Wednesday morning, with even colder values over the higher terrain. Winds will abate a bit by Wednesday night into Thursday, though below normal temperatures will persist. By the end of next week, the aforementioned low will be absorbed in a developing cutoff near Newfoundland. This, coupled with ridging near the West Coast, and lower heights in between over the OH/TN Valley, are a more traditional setup for wintry weather locally. Therefore, the threat of wintry precipitation may re-appear by the end of next week. && 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Lol dude uses the CFS for forecasting It got him famous thanks to Newsweek lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Lol dude uses the CFS for forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Blacksburg AFD playing it cautious with the 50/50 chance here because of model inconsistency. You all think 0z provides any clarity or probably not until 12z earliest tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Blacksburg AFD playing it cautious with the 50/50 chance here because of model inconsistency. You all think 0z provides any clarity or probably not until 12z earliest tomorrow? I’m thinking 12z tomorrow for much better clarity. But hopefully 0z will give us a clue whether the 12z runs today are onto a trend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I know the NAM isn't ideal, but so far at 18z it's digging a bit more in the west. That's the trend we need to look for. Hudson bay vortex is in a slightly more favorable spot. small steps https://ibb.co/jH7WWDc 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I know the NAM isn't ideal, but so far at 18z it's digging a bit more in the west. That's the trend we need to look for. https://ibb.co/jH7WWDc TPV is more southwest of its 12z position as well which was the other thing more seasoned vets were watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I know the NAM isn't ideal, but so far at 18z it's digging a bit more in the west. That's the trend we need to look for. Hudson bay vortex is in a slightly more favorable spot. small steps https://ibb.co/jH7WWDc Yep. The vortex is further west than 12Z as well. It is going to be a good run imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 If nothing else. I hope we get one good run in with a proper NAMing. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Snow into the Valley 12Z Monday on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Yep. The vortex is further west than 12Z as well. It is going to be a good run imo. I dont know... I am not a big fan at the h5... but that is just me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Trough a little more negative on 18z nam vs 12z https://ibb.co/wBfzCPt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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