midatlanticweather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 ^ Complications usually mean fail. I am the Deb.. but when we get things complicating possibilities, the safer bet is on failure. Seems we will have some snow flying around on Tuesday, but nothing super significant... I have some hope that the eastern part of the area gets some juice as things move towards the coast. I dunno.. It seems close to a whiff for us west and NW folks if the trending means anything. Yes, the Euro improved, but it is not like it came back to something too exciting. Later week now has more excitement. Cold week with some snow is not terrible. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18 minutes ago, usedtobe said: I broke the accumulations down to 6 and 12 hr intervals and stormvista gave nothing. Here's it's 24 hr amounts. If it snows that lightly we'd be lucky to get more than a coating. Graphic is courtesy of StormVista. If the one outlier of all the models is taken verbatim as the final solution, then you would be right. Hopefully, there is a continued move towards the GFS/CMC/UKie camp for the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 My takeaway from the 12z suite—we all should see snow falling next week to give us the warm and fuzzies. It just seems to be a matter of how much. My forecast—flurries to 10”. That should cover it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I think it all hinges on the vortex in Canada ending up more west than modeled. If that happens we should be good. More vorticity in the sw like previously modeled would help as well. Anything to deepen that trough, sooner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 22 minutes ago, usedtobe said: I broke the accumulations down to 6 and 12 hr intervals and stormvista gave nothing. Here's it's 24 hr amounts. If it snows that lightly we'd be lucky to get more than a coating. Graphic is courtesy of StormVista. Wes! Miss you dude 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 9 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Nothing wrong with a light to moderate event Tuesday especially with the late week storm looking better. Jan 20th is a perfect example of the importance of pattern recognition over surface output on long range guidance. For whatever reason the guidance never really keyed in on a specific wave for that period and was mostly dry, but pulling back the pattern was screaming for a storm there. And suddenly as we get into the range where waves can be better resolved a storm has popped up on all 3 major global models that go out that far...and I'm pretty sure the UKMET was headed towards a storm also if it went out a couple more days. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 9 minutes ago, Interstate said: The updated 12z Euro would get the kids off at least 2 days of school. Lol. Now we’ve hit on what really matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think it all hinges on the vortex in Canada ending up more west than modeled. If that happens we should be good. More vorticity in the sw like previously modeled would help as well. Anything to deepen that trough, sooner. We should probably root for a stronger cutter that occludes up in canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think it all hinges on the vortex in Canada ending up more west than modeled. If that happens we should be good. More vorticity in the sw like previously modeled would help as well. Anything to deepen that trough, sooner. You are right, but there are lots of moving parts in that. A stronger trailing wave and weaker lead waves both gives the TPV more time to retrograde and tugs it west some before the storm amplifies and pulls it east again. A stronger lead wave interferes. So it's all related. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Terpeast said: We should probably root for a stronger cutter that occludes up in canada To nudge it west? I think that’s what you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Wes! Miss you dude Thanks. I do look in. At least we have two possible events to track. You've got a lot of pros and good enthusiasts so I'm not sure what I could add. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: You are right, but there are lots of moving parts in that. A stronger trailing wave and weaker lead waves both gives the TPV more time to retrograde and tugs it west some before the storm amplifies and pulls it east again. A stronger lead wave interferes. So it's all related. Thanks. I think all that you mentioned is possible. As has been stated by many, what takes place the next 24-36 greatly affects this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just put the bar at grass coverage. Something to help temps stay low before the 20th potential. If we fully poof that’s definitely a kick in the teeth but knowing opportunities are following and we’ve got an inchless streak to break, this is the sweet spot of expectations for me given the models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, usedtobe said: Thanks. I do look in. At least we have two possible events to track. You've got a lot of pros and good enthusiasts so I'm not sure what I could add. You add a ton. Always have 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: Thanks. I do look in. At least we have two possible events to track. You've got a lot of pros and good enthusiasts so I'm not sure what I could add. Ummmm…. You’re the top pro, we could always use your input. I miss those days. I hope you and your family are well. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: Thanks. I do look in. At least we have two possible events to track. You've got a lot of pros and good enthusiasts so I'm not sure what I could add. A ton. But we all know I'm a heavyweight here and for sure know more than you. When I look at the H5 maps and say that squiggly thing or the U shaped trof.....Harvard calls. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You add a ton. Always have Concur 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Thanks. I do look in. At least we have two possible events to track. You've got a lot of pros and good enthusiasts so I'm not sure what I could add. Some sanity! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Thanks. I think all that you mentioned is possible. As has been stated by many, what takes place the next 24-36 greatly affects this. The differences critical to our outcome become pretty evident by about 60 hours, which is becoming pretty close now...so pretty soon we will see guidance begin to converge. We kind of did at 12z, but we still don't know where the compromise will leave us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Every model now spreads snow over the area. The heaviest stripe has a consistent and similar location on all models just to different degrees on amounts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Thanks. I do look in. At least we have two possible events to track. You've got a lot of pros and good enthusiasts so I'm not sure what I could add. Wes, please add more. And you have unlimited free trolling of me and my lack of snow. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, usedtobe said: Thanks. I do look in. At least we have two possible events to track. You've got a lot of pros and good enthusiasts so I'm not sure what I could add. Don't sell yourself short. I know I find all your posts helpful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 EPS is in range now, 12z, LP is definitely a tick west (look at the 1012mb line), and a tick stronger: versus 00z: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 More euro members closer to the coast . 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 EPS leaves me hopeful the bleed will be in our favor, but it was only a baby step. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, Paleocene said: EPS is in range now, 12z, LP is definitely a tick east (look at the 1012mb line), and a tick stronger: versus 00z: Looks a tick west to me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, WesternFringe said: Looks a tick west to me. Thanks, in my haste to post, wrote east instead of west. Edited it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Looks a tick west to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, nj2va said: If he’s in, I’m in. If you're in, I'm in! Just an FYI, and not even taking into account the latest (12Z) guidance, but the probabilistic WSSI kinda sorta gives us an areal extent of what most likely would be minor impacts. We'll see. Also attached the 13Z NBM 50% percentile snow (most likely total or mode). I think, or I'd like to believe, this is a good 'floor'...with hopefully going forward an increasing trend. The main shortwave driving this event is still south of the Gulf of Alaska, well west of the WA/OR coast. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Busy between meetings but I think at a glance it made a positive move. But this is the issue IMO why the euro is on its own Look at the GGEM Now look at the euro. The feature X is the issue. The more amplified guidance is much weaker with that wave and allows the trailing wave Y to amplify more. The euro is stronger and further north with feature X and its preventing Y from amplifying. Ugh, eps has them pretty disjointed. Can see our wave near Pa here. There are a bunch of members that redevelop the low on time to scrape E MD, SE pa into SNE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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