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Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: Do we finally win or get Saltburned?


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^ Complications usually mean fail. I am the Deb.. but when we get things complicating possibilities, the safer bet is on failure. Seems we will have some snow flying around on Tuesday, but nothing super significant... I have some hope that the eastern part of the area gets some juice as things move towards the coast. I dunno.. It seems close to a whiff for us west and NW folks if the trending means anything. Yes, the Euro improved, but it is not like it came back to something too exciting. 

Later week now has more excitement. Cold week with some snow is not terrible.

 

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18 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

I broke the accumulations down to 6 and 12 hr intervals and stormvista gave nothing.  Here's it's 24 hr amounts.  If it snows that lightly we'd be lucky to get more than a coating.  Graphic is courtesy of StormVista. image.png.f83dfb5da737dec647eb99d7a16f8771.png

If the one outlier of all the models is taken verbatim as the final solution, then you would be right.  Hopefully, there is a continued move towards the GFS/CMC/UKie camp for the Euro.

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I think it all hinges on the vortex in Canada ending up more west than modeled. If that happens we should be good. More vorticity in the sw like previously modeled would help as well. Anything to deepen that trough, sooner.

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9 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Nothing wrong with a light to moderate event Tuesday especially with the late week storm looking better.

Jan 20th is a perfect example of the importance of pattern recognition over surface output on long range guidance.  For whatever reason the guidance never really keyed in on a specific wave for that period and was mostly dry, but pulling back the pattern was screaming for a storm there.  And suddenly as we get into the range where waves can be better resolved a storm has popped up on all 3 major global models that go out that far...and I'm pretty sure the UKMET was headed towards a storm also if it went out a couple more days.  

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think it all hinges on the vortex in Canada ending up more west than modeled. If that happens we should be good. More vorticity in the sw like previously modeled would help as well. Anything to deepen that trough, sooner.

We should probably root for a stronger cutter that occludes up in canada

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think it all hinges on the vortex in Canada ending up more west than modeled. If that happens we should be good. More vorticity in the sw like previously modeled would help as well. Anything to deepen that trough, sooner.

You are right, but there are lots of moving parts in that.  A stronger trailing wave and weaker lead waves both gives the TPV more time to retrograde and tugs it west some before the storm amplifies and pulls it east again.  A stronger lead wave interferes.  So it's all related.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

You are right, but there are lots of moving parts in that.  A stronger trailing wave and weaker lead waves both gives the TPV more time to retrograde and tugs it west some before the storm amplifies and pulls it east again.  A stronger lead wave interferes.  So it's all related.  

Thanks. I think all that you mentioned is possible. As has been stated by many, what takes place the next 24-36 greatly affects this.

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Just put the bar at grass coverage. Something to help temps stay low before the 20th potential. If we fully poof that’s definitely a kick in the teeth but knowing opportunities are following and we’ve got an inchless streak to break, this is the sweet spot of expectations for me given the models right now.

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1 minute ago, usedtobe said:

Thanks.  I do look in.  At least we have two possible events to track.  You've got a lot of pros and good enthusiasts so I'm not sure what I could add. 

Ummmm…. You’re the top pro, we could always use your input. I miss those days. I hope you and your family are well. 

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1 minute ago, usedtobe said:

Thanks.  I do look in.  At least we have two possible events to track.  You've got a lot of pros and good enthusiasts so I'm not sure what I could add. 

A ton.  But we all know I'm a heavyweight here and for sure know more than you.  When I look at the H5 maps and say that squiggly thing or the U shaped trof.....Harvard calls.  

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Thanks. I think all that you mentioned is possible. As has been stated by many, what takes place the next 24-36 greatly affects this.

The differences critical to our outcome become pretty evident by about 60 hours, which is becoming pretty close now...so pretty soon we will see guidance begin to converge.  We kind of did at 12z, but we still don't know where the compromise will leave us.  

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5 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Thanks.  I do look in.  At least we have two possible events to track.  You've got a lot of pros and good enthusiasts so I'm not sure what I could add. 

Wes, please add more.  And you have unlimited free trolling of me and my lack of snow.  

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5 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Thanks.  I do look in.  At least we have two possible events to track.  You've got a lot of pros and good enthusiasts so I'm not sure what I could add. 

Don't sell yourself short.  I know I find all your posts helpful.  

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1 hour ago, nj2va said:

If he’s in, I’m in.

If you're in, I'm in! :)

Just an FYI, and not even taking into account the latest (12Z) guidance, but the probabilistic WSSI kinda sorta gives us an areal extent of what most likely would be minor impacts. We'll see.

Also attached the 13Z NBM 50% percentile snow (most likely total or mode). I think, or I'd like to believe, this is a good 'floor'...with hopefully going forward an increasing trend. The main shortwave driving this event is still south of the Gulf of Alaska, well west of the WA/OR coast. 

Screenshot (69).png

Screenshot (70).png

Screenshot (71).png

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Busy between meetings but I think at a glance it made a positive move.  But this is the issue IMO why the euro is on its own
Look at the GGEM
gem-all-conus-vort500_z500-5363200.thumb.png.013f31bae9d147131711beed83fec2e0.png
Now look at the euro.  The feature X is the issue.  The more amplified guidance is much weaker with that wave and allows the trailing wave Y to amplify more.  The euro is stronger and further north with feature X and its preventing Y from amplifying.  
eurono.thumb.png.850beee8c78e0a028193f84b201603c4.png

Ugh, eps has them pretty disjointed. Can see our wave near Pa here. There are a bunch of members that redevelop the low on time to scrape E MD, SE pa into SNEeef1300e79223d07a53f780c493dec63.jpg
.1f51fe1b476aa0c602cfab79b77ecf1f.jpg


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