Maestrobjwa Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Spire? Remember Deep Thunder? Lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Spire? looked like the EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Flow is backed a tiny bit and heights ahead are just a smidge higher, but nothing super notable. Not trying to get hopes up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 More moisture in the south/west over AR. Oriented little more NW. Again, don't get happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 j/k...it's markedly better precip wise before it gets to us...but seriously, it's not enough to draw any conclusions. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 It's going to be better than 0z 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: j/k...it's markedly better precip wise before it gets to us...but seriously, it's not enough to draw any conclusions. I’m only out to 66 on pivotal and can only compare to 0z. But I like it more than 0z for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Light snow over us at 90 hours. Again, how much better is the question 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 It's for sure NW of 0z position. Light precip still over the area at 96 whereas 0z had none 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 looks better. more emphasis on the trailing vort rather than that initial piece in the Midwest. heights higher over the east 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's for sure NW of 0z position. Light precip still over the area at 96 whereas 0z had none At least we stopped the bleeding 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Yeah, still light snow at 102 whereas 0z had nothing 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I’m behind Randy, but at 78hrs, the TPV is much less suppressive and more energy is concentrated west in the trough. Less energy in the front running s/w. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 less suppressive over the lakes... more of the vort is hung back. this was a good step 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 And done at 105. It's a bleed stopper. Nothing super impressive, but better 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 models may be in the process of converging on some kind of consensus with the ECMWF ticking NW and the GFS / CMC moving a bit SE 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 It's coming. The airmass behind this storm is impressive. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1-3"er 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, stormtracker said: And done at 105. It's a bleed stopper. Nothing super impressive, but better if it's really done at 105, this is what it spit out. I mean we'd take it probably, though temps actually aren't amazing 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Well, it's moving one direction and it's towards the others, however slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 It almost looks like (at least for the Euro’s solution verbatim), we would have been better if the coastal never formed. Once it did, it robbed the WAA precip that was aimed at us. Once the coastal formed, it was just too far east/off the coast to matter. It stopped the bleeding and that was good to see - onto the ensembles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Kicker is also weaker yet again. Lots of positive steps here with 12z euro. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 WB 12Z EURO blizzard... 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Busy between meetings but I think at a glance it made a positive move. But this is the issue IMO why the euro is on its own Look at the GGEM Now look at the euro. The feature X is the issue. The more amplified guidance is much weaker with that wave and allows the trailing wave Y to amplify more. The euro is stronger and further north with feature X and its preventing Y from amplifying. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 1-3"er I broke the accumulations down to 6 and 12 hr intervals and stormvista gave nothing. Here's it's 24 hr amounts. If it snows that lightly we'd be lucky to get more than a coating. Graphic is courtesy of StormVista. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Busy between meetings but I think at a glance it made a positive move. But this is the issue IMO why the euro is on its own Look at the GGEM Now look at the euro. The feature X is the issue. The more amplified guidance is much weaker with that wave and allows the trailing wave Y to amplify more. The euro is stronger and further north with feature X and its preventing Y from amplifying. The problem is that the best GFS runs had X and Y join up. My concern is that now that X and Y are decoupled on the GFS, we risk moving further toward a Euro scenario where X simply serves to completely squash Y. And X isn’t going to be able to give us much unless it digs deeper. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 @psuhoffman…yeah, @MN Transplant picked up on that earlier. Euro is stronger than other guidance with that lead s/w that moves through the Midwest. BUT…it was notably weaker with it (and more energy left behind) at 12z vs 0z. That’s more of an issue than the kicker. One more step of equal magnitude and euro probably looks like todays gfs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: The problem is that the best GFS runs had X and Y join up. My concern is that now that X and Y are decoupled on the GFS, we risk moving further toward a Euro scenario where X simply serves to completely squash Y. And X isn’t going to be able to give us much unless it digs deeper. They seem to be trending towards a compromise on that, but I'm just not sure what that looks like in the end. I am concerned about that also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Nothing wrong with a light to moderate event Tuesday especially with the late week storm looking better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The updated 12z Euro would get the kids off at least 2 days of school. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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