mattie g Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: It's amazing it was Euro vs the world and EURO appears to have won. Do you think if it was Euro with a snowy solution vs the world it would still win? The Euro washed out after being the snowiest solution for 36-48 hours. No model has “won” as of yet and no model will when all is said and done. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: It's amazing it was Euro vs the world and EURO appears to have won. Do you think if it was Euro with a snowy solution vs the world it would still win? Everywhere but the mid - Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nmyers1204 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 7 minutes ago, Scraff said: Once a tool. Always a tool. Unreal. Must’ve microwaved his tin hat a few too many times…I feel sad for the guy, he’s past grasping at straws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: It's amazing it was Euro vs the world and EURO appears to have won. Do you think if it was Euro with a snowy solution vs the world it would still win? No we saw that fail a few times. But never this close in! Honestly when i realized this morning what the issue was and why the euro was doing what it was doing I had a suspicion it was right. It was opposite its two normal biases and it was due to resolved a very delicate play between two waves. That seemed something the better physics model was more likely to be resolving. But all the models seem to be too snowy in general. Im march 2018 every model showed me getting 6-10” 12 hours before the storm and I got nothing! I remember a storm in 2007 where the NAM was on an island snowing no snow when everything else showed 3-6” the day before and the NAM won. If anything shows a bad solution that’s the most likely one. And if everything shows snow they might all be wrong. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Thread jinx is real. Prove me wrong. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Watch the 00z NAM show what we want . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: The Euro washed out after being the snowiest solution for 36-48 hours. No model has “won” as of yet and no model will when all is said and done. The euro started its southward shift on Wednesday night and by Thursday 12z run had the solution it pretty much has now. It could be wrong. Who knows but it took the other models 24 - 36 hours to catch up. Gem still trying to catch up lol. Euro isn't always right but it's superior resolution is a difference maker in set ups like these . Now let's reverse the trend at 00z tonight and get some damn snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 If it helps (and no it doesn't), the 0.25 degree experimental FuXi ECMWF ML model gives our area (I think) between .15 and .25 of liquid equivalent QPF Mon night into Tue. A band of overrunning snow north of a flat wave/eventual weak low off the Mid Atlc coast. MSLP and 850 mb wind speed: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/fuxi_medium-mslp-wind850?base_time=202401121200&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401160600 12 hr QPF (4-5mm through 12Z Tue...another 0.5 to 1 mm through 00Z Wed...: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/fuxi_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202401121200&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401130000 This particular version has been verifying fairly well of late. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Watch the 00z NAM show what we want . What kind of imbecile puts a period 3 lines down from the end of their sentence? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 The pouring tropical rain, heat, and humidity outside right now makes this fail extra rich lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: If it helps (and no it doesn't), the 0.25 degree experimental FuXi ECMWF ML model gives our area (I think) between .15 and .25 of liquid equivalent QPF Mon night into Tue. A band of overrunning snow north of a flat wave/eventual weak low off the Mid Atlc coast. MSLP and 850 mb wind speed: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/fuxi_medium-mslp-wind850?base_time=202401121200&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401160600 12 hr QPF (4-5mm through 12Z Tue...another 0.5 to 1 mm through 00Z Wed...: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/fuxi_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202401121200&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401130000 This particular version has been verifying fairly well of late. Gotta admit I chuckled a bit at "FuXi" model!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, dailylurker said: The pouring tropical rain, heat, and humidity outside right now makes this fail extra rich lol Hey - you best not regret it as it's putting just the slightest dent in our terrible drought 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Gotta admit I chuckled a bit at "FuXi" model!!! Oh believe me, I did too! I think it's pronounced "Foo Chi". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 hours ago, stormtracker said: What a dumb hobby. Why did we all get cursed with this? Get this...there are sickos out there who don't care if it snows or not. They have no concept of weather. They go about their day and check an app maybe once or twice a week. And if a storm doesn't come...they are un phased. What must that be like? Have yall thought about these people? They are amongst us and they are in way bigger numbers. I think the hobby of weather snd winter weather especially is nowhere near dumb. A bit damning honestly but our very keen interests just aren't matched with very keen tools. Thats frustrating but not dumb.. DC area also needs almost everything to go right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, DDweatherman said: Sadly, cold & dry, warm & wet Now that's something we're really good at! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 What kind of imbecile puts a period 3 lines down from the end of their sentence?Your mother. It’s what shows up from my sig for some reason. Eat a shlong, Yeoman. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No we saw that fail a few times. But never this close in! Honestly when i realized this morning what the issue was and why the euro was doing what it was doing I had a suspicion it was right. It was opposite its two normal biases and it was due to resolved a very delicate play between two waves. That seemed something the better physics model was more likely to be resolving. But all the models seem to be too snowy in general. Im march 2018 every model showed me getting 6-10” 12 hours before the storm and I got nothing! I remember a storm in 2007 where the NAM was on an island snowing no snow when everything else showed 3-6” the day before and the NAM won. If anything shows a bad solution that’s the most likely one. And if everything shows snow they might all be wrong. You said a while back that snow is an anomaly in these parts. It's stuck with me and makes alot of sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, WxMan1 said: Oh believe me, I did too! I think it's pronounced "Foo Chi". Haha, I figured it had to be something like that, but still...in my mind I was thinking, well, you know! Hell, gotta find humor in anything at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said: It is, but not by much. I moved back here in May. Got nothing in this location last year. They did get a couple inches from that Jan 2022 storm that buried DC / central VA. 20 miles NW at my location then I didn't get a flake. And this location got about 3" slushy inches from that 2-day storm in early Feb that year. That's the last time it snowed greater than 1/2" in Stephens City. Same here...It's been an absolutely brutal stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Getting punchy in here. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Your mother. It’s what shows up from my sig for some reason. Eat a shlong, Yeoman. Fixed! I knew you had it in you.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Just now, stormtracker said: Getting punchy in here. Gotta laugh at something. I'd rather have it getting FOLKS-y instead!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Getting punchy in here. Cocked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Fixed! I knew you had it in you..Yeah, for some reason when the “sent from myphone using Tapatalk” toggle is checked, it enters a period 3 lines down. Terrible coding job by Tapatalk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 When all other guidance has abandoned us… you know what time it is…. NAMing time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Im gonna laugh if all this shit jumps back on the 6z suites. Lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Im gonna laugh if all this shit jumps back on the 6z suites. Lolol We’ve got time for one more “we’re back” cycle… I expect a single good run tonight from the CMC/GFS/EURO/UKIE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 We’ve got time for one more “we’re back” cycle… I expect a single good run tonight from the CMC/GFS/EURO/UKIEYou know it’s coming. Something to keep folks hanging by a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 I miss the DGEX days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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